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NBA Player Props Bet Picks: Thursday (Mavericks vs. Timberwolves)

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While the Boston Celtics took care of business against the Pacers, the West is still up for grabs. After taking a 3-0 lead, Dallas looks to handle Minnesota but the Timberwolves won’t go down without a fight. They may have only one win under their belt but with the series returning to Minnesota, they have all the momentum.

As a five-point favorite with around a 210-point total, this game will have the entire NBA world watching for what’s to happen. As always, shop around for the best odds. For an island playoff game of this caliber, there probably won’t be too many differences but you never know, especially with the down-the-board props. Let’s get to it.  

Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit. 

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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets

Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 151-117

Karl-Anthony Towns Over 30.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-106 on FanDuel)

After struggling across the board in the series, Karl-Anthony Towns stepped up on Tuesday with a 25-point effort despite just 30 minutes of play. After averaging over 21 points a game all year, this is a lot more promising to trust back-to-back such efforts. Minnesota coming home is the first item that makes me comfortable backing Towns. He can perform well when playing at home given the opportunity and he’s averaged over 32 minutes a game. He should get more scoring chances than his previous outing. Dallas’ defense has been solid but is still middle of the pack throughout the playoffs. Towns is in a simple buy-low spot. If Minnesota continues winning this will be the lowest you see his props at for the rest of the season.

Anthony Edwards Under 14.5 Reb + Ast (-120 on BetMGM)

I’m not strong enough to fade Anthony Edwards and his scoring abilities, but I feel comfortable fading his rebound and assist prop tonight. He plays consistently for 40+ minutes and in the last two games he has snagged nine and 10 boards. That is nearly four rebounds higher than his seasonal average, and his assists are three higher than his seasonal averages over the last week. If Minnesota is going to win, Edwards needs to be an efficient scorer, not a rebounder. Selling high on the rebound number is an easy move after his double-digit effort on Tuesday. Sure, he may score 30 and is capable of pushing 40 but in his last six home playoff games, he’s only gone over six boards once. Even if he overperforms with facilitating I am comfortable with a juiced under here.  

P.J. Washington Over 1.5 Assists (+130 on BetMGM)

For the plus-odds bet of the day, I’m going with P.J. Washington to tag a pair of assists. He’s recorded two in consecutive games so usually I’d sell high but the value is too tempting at +130. What I love about this prop is how he’s only been playing additional minutes as Dallas continues their playoff run. Three out of his last four games he’s exceeded 40 minutes so the opportunity is there. It’s just a matter of if the shots are falling for his teammates. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet — the holy grail of sports betting — tags this as one of the best bets of the evening with a 54% chance of hitting, so you know that only makes me feel better about backing it here. 

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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