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NBA Playoffs Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/4)

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We have just one game of the NBA Playoffs scheduled for tonight, but it could be another classic. Steph Curry and LeBron James continue their quests for five rings with the Warriors at home, down 1-0 in the series.

Can the Lakers take a commanding lead, or will the Warriors do what the Warriors do best and fight? My best bet has got you covered with what to expect and which way to wager on tonight’s battle in the Bay Area:

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Thursday’s Best NBA Bet

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors

The Lakers gutted out Game 1 but hold off on backing them to win consecutive games on Golden State’s home floor. Having closed out Sacramento just two days prior, the Warriors were playing on tired legs and were ill-equipped for the Lakers’ differing style of play. Additionally (and historically), Game 7 victors tend to underwhelm in Game 1 of the following series. With the Lakers’ win, teams having four-plus days of rest (LAL) facing an opponent on two days rest or less (GSW) are now 34-19-1 ATS since 2005.

This was always going to be a tough spot for Golden State to come out firing, but the loss gives us a great opportunity to back another quite profitable NBA playoff trend:  Since 2019, teams who lost Game 1 at home (GSW) are an astounding 20-1 SU and 19-2 ATS in Game 2. We saw this exhibited last night as the Celtics throttled Philly. Although trends should never be the foundation of a bet, this particular one is damning - we’ll gladly use it as an excuse to back the defending champs.

With that said, there are other reasons to like Golden State tonight:

The result of Game 1 screams regression for the Lakers in some cases. The offensive impact made by Dennis Schroder and D’Angelo Russell (19 points each) was flimsy and unsustainable from the two players. Los Angeles also had a drastic advantage from the free throw line, shooting and converting over 20 more attempts than the Warriors. Further, the Lakers have exhibited let-downs already in these Playoffs. In the previous round vs. Memphis, Los Angeles won Game 1 on the road by 16, only to lose Game 2 by 10 (with Ja Morant out). They were also blown out in Game 5 of that series, a closeout game for them after a critical Game 4 overtime victory.

Lastly, Anthony Davis was the best player on the floor on Tuesday, but he has yet to string together consecutive good games these playoffs. Davis played an extensive 44 minutes in Game 1, and there is a possibility Los Angeles is more cautious with his playing time, having already stolen home court for the series.

We like the Warriors here. It doesn’t take much convincing to back the defending champs on their home floor in a must-win game. Regression (or a letdown) may be coming for the Lakers tonight. The trends suggest the Warriors tare the play too, and who are we to turn our nose to history?

Bet: Warriors -6 (-110)

Check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


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