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NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/12)

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Tonight is a big night. Two lower seeds have the potential to reach their conference finals. Each has the chance to do it at home, and you know how important it would be to avoid a winner-take-all Game 7 on the road.

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Today's NBA Best Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

New York Knicks at Miami Heat (-5.5)| O/U 208.5 (-110/-110)

The Knicks were able to stave off elimination with a win in the Garden. They must do it again in South Beach to force a Game 7.

They dominated in so many key spots in the last game – they took double the number of free throws, finished +16 in rebounds, and scored 29 points off of turnovers. New York has to play better than Miami on both ends of the court, in the paint, and on the perimeter if they want to win this game.

Thibs made a bold move and played Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes from tip-off to the final buzzer, and you have to wonder how fresh they'll feel having to play 48 hours later.

Miami hasn't played many bad games in these playoffs, but they did things in Game 5 they hadn’t done. The Knicks were able to contain Jimmy Butler as he scored a playoff-low of 19 points, and it was the first time he didn't attempt a three. New York has to continue to get physical with Butler when he drives the lane, and not let him get to basket untouched.

The Knicks did a great job at extending this series, but the Heat are 4-0 in Miami during the playoffs, and they put it all out on the court in that last game. The Heat will clean up the mistakes from Game 5 and close it out.

Pick: Heat -5.5 (-110)

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5)| O/U 221.5 (-110/-110)

The question for the Lakers is the status of Anthony Davis after he left Game 5 when he took an elbow to the head. All signs indicate he will play, which is crucial because the Lakers have a -25 scoring differential when he's off the court. Davis and LeBron James can only do so much, and we've seen the Lakers win when they get the support of the role players.

Look at the side-by-side team stats in Game 5, and they aren't much different, the Warriors did just a little more to earn this win. Everyone played well - Andrew Wiggins had a playoff-high 25, Stephen Curry shot 50%, and Draymond Green had 20 points. Even with a quiet game from Klay Thompson, they were still able to get a 15-point win.

If Anthony Davis is on the floor and can play 40 minutes, I give the Lakers a good chance to close it out. The Warriors have already won important road games in the previous series but have yet to win in the center formally known as Staples this season. I'm confident in the total here, as it's gone over 221 in four of five games in this series.

Pick: Over 221 (-110)

Check out our other best bets for Friday:


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