NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/29)
With just one game on the NBA slate tonight, let’s take a look at the best bet from Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets. The action tips off at 8:30 pm ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado.
Saturday’s Best NBA Bet
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Phoenix Suns (+120) at Denver Nuggets (-140) | O/U 226.5 (-110/-110)
The Western Conference Semi’s tip-off this Saturday night, as the top-seeded Nuggets play host to the Conference favorites, the Suns. This is certainly an intriguing matchup, as Phoenix has had playoff success vs Denver in the past, but these same Suns somehow underwhelmed in their 4-1 series victory over the Clippers. Phoenix’s lack of depth was glaring in the first round, and their reliance on the mid-range is worrisome for their title prospects. Conversely, the Nuggets looked great for the majority of their series vs the Wolves, a foe much more formidable than a Clippers squad absent both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
From the outside looking in, this is very much Denver’s series to lose. Home-court advantage should be crucial for the Nuggets, as they were one of the best in the NBA at home by nearly every metric. Despite this and Denver’s status as the top-seed in the West, the Nuggets still find themselves as short dogs in the series (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook). This is a result of the public’s infatuation with the Suns since their acquisition of Kevin Durant, with a blind eye being glazed over Phoenix’s weaknesses. At the very least, this is a 50/50 series, and the betting public’s obsession with the Suns has led to the Nuggets being underpriced not only for the series but in this game.
The Suns are a popular bet to win it all, but their depth is worrisome, and this line is compensating too heavily for the team’s potential. Denver has a strong reputation on their home court and was the better team in the first round of the playoffs. We’ll take the value where we can find it, and the Nuggets should be favored by more than three points in Game 1.
Bet: Nuggets -3 (-110)
It’s worth noting that these two teams haven’t played each other at full strength since the Suns’ acquisition of Durant at the trade deadline, as both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray sat out the past two meetings near the season’s end. Even still, the Nuggets held tough on Phoenix’s home floor, and their insertion into the lineup should only bolster Denver’s claim to victory.
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