NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/6)
We have two pivotal Game 3 matchups on Saturday as both series change settings. The Warriors and Lakers head to LaLa Land as the Knicks and Heat take their talents to South Beach. Here is our best bet in these two games.
Saturday’s Best NBA Bet
(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Knicks @ Miami Heat
The Knicks underwhelmed on their home floor in the series’ first two games, and the likely return of Jimmy Butler warrants Miami being favored. However, I’m not yet convinced a healthy Butler means the Heat have a stranglehold on this series, and believe that they are being overpriced at this number.
New York’s best flashed in Game 2, and the team’s struggles on offense were a function of the foreign zone defense which Miami employed. With the time the Knicks have had to prepare in between games, especially after already having seen it, one would expect the team to have answers for the unique defensive scheme of the Heat. And, even if Miami pivots to a more traditional defense, it shouldn’t be expected that they’d be able to stymie the likes of Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, and RJ Barrett (who has played surprisingly well this series).
The real preference in taking the Knicks here is the Heat offense, however. The Heat have been playing far ahead of their skis this postseason, and their reliance on middling role players such as Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin is worrisome and unsustainable. In that same vein, Jimmy Butler’s heroics can’t go on forever, and Miami’s offense ranked 25th in the NBA in Pts/Poss for the regular season– the crash back down to earth is inevitable.
Let’s get ahead of the Heat’s likely offensive regression before it happens, and back the duo of Brunson and Randle to keep this close on the road. There is obvious overreaction baked into this number, and now might be the time to point out that the Heat were the NBA’s worst team ATS in the regular season this year (30-49-3). Popular projection sites such as 538.com project this around Heat -2, and I tend to agree. We’re getting a discount on the Knicks at this number which likely won’t last.
Bet: Knicks +4 (-110)
Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday: