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NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (4/30)

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As the saying goes, the two best words in sports are "Game Seven". We get a matinee Game 7 in the Kings and Warriors series on Sunday. If the rest of the series has been any indication, this will be an instant classic. Before this matchup, we get Game 1 of a classic East matchup between the Knicks and Heat. Here are my favorite plays for the Sunday slate. 

Sunday’s Best NBA Bets

Season to Date: 31-29-2, -1.25 units

Miami Heat at New York Knicks

For the first time since 2013, the Knicks will be playing in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. They get an opponent in Miami that looked as impressive as any team in the league while taking down the top-seeded Bucks. The Knicks could be without All-Star forward Julius Randle after hurting his ankle in the final game of the previous series, but they still find themselves favorites in Game 1.

In the regular season matchups, the Knicks won three of four, but each game in the series finished with a single-digit margin. The absence of Herro for Miami could be a major factor here in the playoffs. During the regular season, he averaged 23 PPG against the Knicks and was Miami's leading scorer in the four matchups. They'll need more than Jimmy Butler’s heroics to keep up with a New York offense that ranked fourth in adjusted offensive rating on the year.

Much like against Cleveland, New York should have a big advantage on the boards. They dominated the rebound battle in the regular season with Miami. Even if they miss Randle, Obi Toppin stepped in effectively. He's a more than capable defender and can handle a matchup with Kevin Love.

The lines indicate this will be a low-scoring defensive slugfest, but I could see this going in a different direction. Miami, specifically Jimmy Butler, found another offensive gear once the playoffs started. Their defense will face a tougher test in this efficient New York offense than they faced against a Bucks team that would go through extended droughts. I like this game to go over the low total, and even if Randle misses this game, I like the Knicks to take care of business and cover in front of a raucous Madison Square Garden crowd.

Pick: 1.1u on Total o207.5 (-110) | 1.1u on Knicks -4.5 (-110)

Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings

Since the start of Game 1, we could tell this was going to be a classic series, and it finally comes to its conclusion in a winner-take-all Game 7 in Sacramento. The Kings are 0-3 all-time in Game 7s since moving from Kansas City to Sacramento, often losing in heartbreaking fashion.

The narrative coming into this series was about how will the Kings stop the high-powered Warrior offense. Although the Warriors have had some poor shooting games in this series, the Kings haven't needed to shut them down because their own offense has been up to the challenge. Sacramento has managed to score 114 or more in all but one game this series, even while struggling through some poor three-point shooting games.

Either of these teams is capable of pulling out the Game 7 victory, as this series has been back and forth. The spark the Kings have gotten off the bench from players like Malik Monk and Trey Lyles is more than the Warriors' bench has been able to provide. This has really been the difference in the series. With a Golden 1 Center crowd that will be ready to blow the roof off, I like the Kings, on the moneyline, to exercise past Game 7 demons and knock off the defending champions.

Pick: 1.2u on Kings ML (-120)

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