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NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/14)

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Sunday gives us a massive Game 7 between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers. The winner of this contest will advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. For Boston it would be their fifth in seven years and for Philadelphia it would mark the first trip since 2001. Here are my best bets for this pivotal Game 7.

TD Garden will be rocking from the jump for this tilt. The raucous home environment should give the home Celtics an advantage early in the game. The series so far has seen five of six games with a first quarter scoring margin of six or greater. First quarters of Game 7s can be intense and typically the more defensive minded teams come through.

Boston has looked disinterested and downright bad on defense at times during these playoffs. However, in stretches they've been able to turn the defense on including fourth quarters in Games 2, 4 and 6 where they held the Philadelphia offense in check. I like Boston, the team that has experience winning these types of games to come out strong in the first quarter a send an early message to the 76ers that if they want to win this will be a dogfight.

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NBA Playoffs Best Bets for 76ers vs. Celtics Game 7

Season to Date: 34-32-2, -1.55 units

Pick: 1u on Celtics 1Q -2.5 (+100)

The rest of the game should play out similarly as far as being a defensive battle. Game 7s tend to fit a narrative of being low scoring. Dating back to 2019, we've seen nine of the last 14 Game 7s go under 200 points. Given the defensive makeup of these two teams, there is little reason to expect that to change. We've already seen a shift towards slower, more low-scoring games as this series has progressed, culminating in a 179-point Game 6.

Increased intensity on defense will lead to both teams playing a little tighter. Neither of these squads turns the ball over particularly often, and both teams will be more conscious about ball security in this winner take all game. This means both teams should be able to run their offenses, which were the 8th and 4th longest average possession lengths in the league for Boston and Philadelphia, respectively. Expect these teams to be methodical and even attempt to grind out possessions to keep this a low-scoring affair that fits the Game 7 mold.

Pick: 1.05u on Total u201 (-105)

Finally, the second halves of the games in this series have kind of turned things on their heads. With almost every second half coming down to shot-making. Boston has the experience, having been to the Eastern Conference Finals so much in recent years, but the depth Philadelphia has, particularly shooting the ball, is key. Their ability to get to the free-throw line has been the best in the league all year. Once they get to the line, they also make their free throws at a league pace-setting rate of 83.5%. Add in a league-best 38.7% from behind the arc, and they have all the offensive makings of a team that wins a Game 7.

The line currently has Boston as a large favorite, and it's tough for me to pick against them on the moneyline, given the recent history of both of these teams. However, the spread is much too large, and Philadelphia has an edge on covering, even if they don't pull out the win. For my last best bet on Sunday, I am backing the 76ers on the spread.

Pick: 1.1u on 76ers +6.5 (-110)

Check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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