Navigate

NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (5/7)

by |

Sunday provides two huge Game 4's in the Boston and Philadelphia series as well as the Denver and Phoenix series. Both road teams are looking to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the series, while both home teams are fighting to tie things back up. Let's take a look at my favorite plays of the day. 

Season to Date: 32-31-2, -2.55 units

NBA First Basket Cheat Sheet: View advice for today's best bets >>

Sunday’s NBA Playoffs Best Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

This is a very important game for Philadelphia to take in order to ensure they don't go back to Boston down 3-1. This effort will come down to whether the players around Joel Embiid can step up, particularly James Harden. In Game 1 of this series, we saw Harden go off for 45 points. In the two games since, he has managed only 28 in total. Embiid had some words to the media to try and get his teammates to step up moving forward, and I think it's a spark they need.

Boston's defense in these playoffs has shown troublesome glimpses. They averaged giving up 122.5 PPG in the final four games of the Atlanta series and followed that up with 119 allowed in Game 1 of this series. Poor shooting performances in the last two games kept Philadelphia's point totals low. They were the top 3-point shooting team in the league during the regular season, and a return to their averages could give them the spark they need to tie this series up. 

A regression to the mean on their shooting in front of the Philadelphia crowd could be enough for this game to go comfortably over the total. Boston was a top-five shooting team in the league all year and another excellent 3-point shooting team. Philadelphia has shown difficulty keeping them off of the scoreboard so far in this series, and with all the shooters they have on the floor, I don't expect this to change.

The 76ers should come out better in a much-needed situation on Sunday. After two embarrassing efforts, I expect the offense to wake back up and light up the nets. This is a good buy-low spot on a team that has fallen off in this exact situation in the last few playoffs. I like them to get the job done here on a strong offensive performance. The Philadelphia spread and over total are two of my favorite plays of the slate.

Pick: 1.1u on 76ers +2 (-110) | 1.1u on Total o213.5 (-110)

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns

This has been quite the series so far, with incredible star power. Denver picked up two huge wins at home to start the series. A statement game by Devin Booker in Game 3 gave Phoenix their first win of the series. Phoenix was able to overcome the loss of Chris Paul as well as a poor performance by Deandre Ayton to get that big victory. However, they needed 86 combined points from Booker and Durant on a historic shooting night from Booker. This was just enough to give them a seven-point win.

In order to even the series, they likely will need to replicate that performance. I don't think they will. Jokic and the Nuggets have been locked in all series. Jokic had an incredible stat line in Game 3 in a losing effort, but he's been putting up numbers all series. Denver has too many weapons and much more depth than Phoenix. That matters in a series like this. Missing the contributions of Paul and Ayton will take its toll on Booker and Durant. I like Denver to pull off the short upset and take a 3-1 lead back to Denver for Game 5.

Pick: 1u on Nuggets ML (+120)

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Sunday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App