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NBA Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (4/27)

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Only one NBA game on the slate tonight, but it’s one worth looking at for a wager. Let’s take a look.

NBA First Basket Cheat Sheet: View advice for today's best bets >>

Thursday’s Best NBA Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks

On a night that would otherwise be reserved solely for the NFL Draft, we return to Atlanta for an unlikely Game 6, as Trae Young’s heroics willed the Hawks to victory this past Tuesday. The Hawks deserve our respect after such an outcome and have played the Celtics tight in both postseason contests on their home floor. However, only the 76ers rivaled Boston in terms of Pts/Poss Differential on the Road, and the team’s 25-16 record away from the TD Garden was second only to the Bucks this regular season. For these reasons, we’ll choose not to play a side in this elimination game, but we do feel to have an edge on the Total.

This series is 2-0 to the Over in Atlanta thus far, skying over by an average greater than 20 points in the small sample, but the line reflects this. The OU opened at 228 initially for Game 3 of this series, and the current number is a stark difference considering nothing materially has changed in the series. The mentioned line movement up to this point is a reaction to their prior matchups and perhaps an unjust one.

The matchups between these teams have been much lower scoring when in Boston, with the outlier being Game 5 (236 total points). And, in watching this game, it was clear that the resulting Over was largely due to outstanding and unlikely team shooting. I’ll sum up my thoughts on this total here:

Historically speaking, the Total tends to go Under as the series progresses. And although this article is dated by a couple of years, the sentiment still remains. Teams tend to get more familiar with one another, and the pace of the game tends to stall in contentious elimination games. I struggle to believe that the change in venue would alter the scoring in any quantifiable way, and choose to believe that the Under is the play as the Hawks fight to prolong their season one more game.

Bet: Under 232 (-110)

Check out the other best bets for Thursday:

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