Navigate

NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/1)

by |

We’re officially passed the first round of the NBA Playoffs.

There are two games on tonight’s slate, including an exciting Game 1 between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics. The fun will continue with Game 2 between the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets.

I’m currently looking at first-basket options for these two Conference Semifinals matchups.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Monday’s Best First Basket Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics

Let’s start off by acknowledging that Joel Embiid of the 76ers is doubtful for Game 1. That doesn’t necessarily mean he won’t play, but don’t count on it either.

He’s been involved in most tip-offs for the 76ers this year and won two tips against the Celtics earlier this year. However, the Celtics won the tip against the 76ers in their previous two matchups.

The Celtics and 76ers have both earned the tip in under 50% of games. However, the Celtics have attempted the first shot in 57% of their games, while the 76ers have only attempted the first shot in 47% of their games.

Add on that Embiid could be absent from this game and the Celtics certainly have an advantage there. However, the 76ers have scored the first basket in 63% of their games, while the Celtics have only scored the first basket in 49%. Philadelphia would have the advantage there.

Ultimately, there’s a higher probability that if the Celtics get the ball first, they’ll score the first bucket. Therefore, give me Jaylen Brown to score first.

Brown has scored first in ten games but has attempted the first basket in 20 games this season.

Bet: Jaylen Brown (+480) 

Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets

The Suns and Nuggets already played Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. Denver won the tip, but Devin Booker scored first for the Suns.

Denver has won the tip in four of five games against the Suns. That’s kind of wild, knowing that the Suns have won the tip in 68% of their games this season.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have only won the tip in 49% of their games this season. The Suns take the first shot more frequently than the Nuggets (63% compared to Denver’s 51%) and win the tip at a much higher rate.

However, Game 1 of the series was the only time the Suns scored first against the Nuggets.

Typically, it’s Nikola Jokic doing the damage early for Denver. He’s scored the first basket in 21 games this season and Denver has scored the first basket in 53% of their games this year compared to the Suns’ 51%. At home, look for the Nuggets to feed Jokic early.

Bet: Nikola Jokic (+420)

Check out our other best bets for Monday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

 

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App