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NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/29)

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On Saturday we get the second round of the NBA Playoffs off to an exciting start with the Suns traveling to Denver to take on the top-seeded Nuggets. This is the only game on the schedule for Saturday. I'll give a few of my favorite plays for the matchup. Let's take a look at those First Basket plays.

Season to Date: 17-55-5, +4.72 units

Saturday's Best First Basket Scorer Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

The regular season matchup data won't give us much insight into where this series will go since in the two matchups after the trade deadline, Nikola Jokic didn't play. Taking a look at season-long data for these teams can give us some insight into where we might go with First Basket.

Unsurprisingly, Nikola Jokic was the leading First Basket scorer for the Nuggets all season and I like him again here. His matchup with Phoenix is advantageous. He already scored a First Basket against the Suns this year. The Suns gave up first field goals to opposing centers in around 20% of games this season, second most of any position. I like the chances of Jokic getting off to an early start and will make a small play on him.

Pick: 0.25u on Nikola Jokic (+430)

Another play I like is on Deandre Ayton. He had a lot of success with First Baskets all season and can take advantage of a huge matchup with Denver. The Nuggets managed to give up nearly 30% of first field goals to opposing centers, easily the most of any position.

On a team filled with future hall of farmers, Ayton managed to lead the Suns in First Baskets on the season. We're getting pretty good odds for a player who cashed this prop often. His strong offensive matchup advantage makes this even more attractive. I'm going to throw another play on Ayton.

Pick: 0.25u on Deandre Ayton (+650)

One longer shot that I'm going to make a small play on is Michael Porter Jr. He's a player that has one speed: Go. When he gets the ball in an opportunity to score, he'll take that shot. More often than not this season, he made the shots. He trailed only Jokic this year on the Nuggets in First Baskets and had some success in the first round.

He's slightly longer odds at +950 but that is great value given his ability to score. His success cashing on this prop makes the play even more attractive and I don't mind sprinkling a small play on him as well.

Pick: 0.1u on Michael Porter Jr. (+950)

Check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


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