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NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Picks & Predictions: Thursday (5/11)

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We had two win-or-go-home games last night, but the New York Knicks and the Golden State Warriors both survived to force Game 6s in their respective series.

Tonight, we’ve got two more win-or-go-home scenarios. The Boston Celtics will need to earn a road win in Game 6 against the 76ers, while the Phoenix Suns will need to take care of their home court tonight, down 3-2 in their series with the Nuggets.

Things are getting intense in the NBA. Here are a couple of first-basket bets to consider for tonight’s action.

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Thursday’s Best First Basket Player Prop Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers

The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers have each earned the tip in less than 50% of games this year. However, the Celtics have attempted the first shot in 57% of games, but they have only scored the first basket in 48% of games.

On the other hand, the 76ers have attempted the first shot in only 47% of games but have scored the first basket in 64% of games. That’s the number that stands out the most. The 76ers win the tip around half of the time but score the first basket in two-thirds of their games.

Joel Embiid didn’t win the tip in Game 5 for the 76ers, but he was still able to score first. That seems like a common theme for Embiid and the 76ers.

Let’s roll with Embiid to score first tonight as well.

Bet: Joel Embiid (+310)

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns are much better at winning the opening tip this season. The Suns have won the tip in nearly 70% of games this year and have attempted the first shot in 64%.

However, Phoenix has only scored the first basket in 51% of games. The Suns aren’t the most efficient team regarding scoring first, but their probability is always higher than the other team when they get the ball first.

On the other hand, the Nuggets have won the tip in only 48% of games, but they’ve scored the first basket 52% of the time, which is slightly greater than the Suns’ 51%.

This type of outcome happened two days ago, with the Suns winning the tip but Michael Porter Jr. and the Denver Nuggets scoring first. If we’re being honest, Jamal Murray has been one of the reasons. He’s taken 13 first shots but has only hit eight first baskets this season.

However, Nikola Jokic has attempted 13 first shots and has scored 17 first baskets. He’s way more efficient and the Nuggets will surely want to get Jokic going early.

Bet: Nikola Jokic (+490)

Take a look at our other best bets for Thursday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>


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