NBA PrizePicks Player Predictions: Thursday (1/4)
There are only two NBA games tonight with the Milwaukee Bucks visiting the five-win San Antonio Spurs and the Golden State Warriors hosting the Denver Nuggets. How will Nikola Jokic and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope perform in a Christmas Day rematch, and will Victor Wembanyama start to improve his rebound numbers against the Bucks?
Here are the three best NBA PrizePicks plays for Thursday, Jan. 4.
Thursday’s Best NBA PrizePicks Player Predictions
This Season: 24-32
Nikola Jokic Over 26.0 points
Totals don’t get much fishier than the one posted for Jokic right now. He’s scored fewer than 20 points in back-to-back games, and he hasn’t scored more than 26 in his past five. He’s averaging 25.7 points per game this season, but based on recent performances there’s not much reason to expect him to go over that average.
Yet, when oddsmakers put out a line this suspicious, you have to take the unexpected side. Bettors have been burned by Jokic since before Christmas. If they’re frustrated with him and they see this high number, they’re going to take his under. But Jokic has scored 26 and 35 against the Warriors this season. He’s got a favorable matchup and he’s due for a big game. Take his over.
Victor Wembanyama Over 8.5 rebounds
Here’s another fishy line that is worth diving into. Wembanyama hasn’t recorded more than seven rebounds in five consecutive games. Yet, he’s still averaging 10.2 per game this season. Before his current five-game stretch, he pulled down at least 10 rebounds in eight consecutive games.
The Bucks are the second-highest-scoring team in the NBA, and they have the third-highest field goal percentage in the league. But they still allow 51.8 rebounds per game because of how many shots they take over 48 minutes. This should be a blowout, which means the Bucks will start resting players in the fourth quarter, while Wembanyama will end his streak of poor rebounding performances.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 three-pointers made
The first time Caldwell-Pope faced the Warriors this season, he finished 0-of-3 from deep. It was his only performance in his first 17 games where he didn’t make at least one three-pointer.
When Caldwell-Pope took on the Warriors on Christmas Day, he made up for his poor performance from earlier in the season. He shot 4-of-9 from deep and finished with 16 points. Caldwell-Pope is coming off an 0-of-3 three-point shooting night against the Charlotte Hornets. While that may concern some bettors, Caldwell-Pope also only played 29 minutes in that game. He’s averaging 32.1 minutes per game this season and always sees an uptick in close games.
The Warriors can’t sell out to stop Caldwell-Pope because the Nuggets have so many other options. Expect the 41.5% three-point shooter to hit at least two tonight.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
- NFL Week 18 Player Prop Bet Picks: Incentives & Records to Target
- NFL Week 18 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Underdog Bets
- College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Top NHL Odds, Picks, & Predictions
Check out our NBA PrizePicks Cheat Sheet >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.