NBA Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/5)
Welcome to a four-game NBA slate where I’ll provide my favorite same-game parlays for your liking. It’s been a successful season so far, and I’d love to keep it going. Hopefully, you had ‘successfully betting NBA player props’ as one of your New Year’s resolutions, and we can get a jump start. Here are my favorite plays for tonight’s games.
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NBA Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/5)
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Leg 1: Al Horford OVER 5.5 rebounds (-105)
- Leg 2: Luka Doncic UNDER 34.5 points (-105)
- Leg 3: UNDER 230.5 points (+100)
Despite the excitement this game should bring with the competition and tight spread, it shouldn’t be all that exciting of a show. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the pace of play, with Dallas ranking dead last. There will be way fewer possessions in this game.
To go off that, both teams represent solid defenses. Boston may be the best offense in the league, but with the Mavs controlling the pace of play, it won’t be as easy to put the ball in the hoop as well as Boston has done.
However, I still don’t see Horford having trouble getting it done on the glass. Dallas is the worst rebounding team in the nation, and it’s shown. Horford will clean up the boards.
Parlay Odds: +500 on DraftKings
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
- Leg 1: Lauri Markkanen UNDER 25.5 points (-111)
- Leg 2: Jabari Smith UNDER 6.5 rebounds (+100)
- Leg 3: Jarred Vanderbilt OVER 6.5 rebounds (-120)
Houston is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, ranking third in rebound rate. But Jabar Smith is coming off a 13-rebound game which is over-inflating his rebound total, which I projected to be set at 5.5.
Someone who I expect to give Houston trouble down low: Jarred Vanderbilt. The Jazz big man has averaged nearly eight boards a game this season, bringing in at least seven in three of their last four games. With the Jazz’s high offensive efficiency and the Rockets’ second-to-last-ranked defense, Vanderbilt will also have an easier time pulling in rebounds.
Utah’s offense isn’t good enough for Markkanen to score 26 points though. I expect his total to hover at just over 20. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet has his prop under as one of the best plays on the slate today, with a +40 percent expected value.
Parlay Odds: +616 on FanDuel
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Orlando Magic
- Leg 1: Ja Morant UNDER 27.5 points (-104)
- Leg 2: Paolo Banchero UNDER 21.5 points (-113)
- Leg 3: Ja Morant UNDER 8.5 assists (-122)
After playing in the second leg of a back-to-back, I see the Grizzlies struggling to get going tonight. Morant is the perfect person to monitor for home/road splits because his scoring and facilitating are worse on the road than at home. With zero days rest, the point averages don’t fall too much, but assists per game sit at 6.0.
Banchero has been solid, but 21.5 points are too many. It’s a bit tougher to judge up and down trends for rookies but Banchero is averaging 16.6 points per game over the last two weeks after starting the season hot. I see this more as a consistent cooling off rather than a dip that’s due for positive regression. This game screams under to me.
Parlay Odds: +535 on FanDuel
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.