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NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (1/8)

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Welcome to Sleeper Picks! Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will break down our top three picks for tonight's NBA action. Similar to fantasy sports, the goal in Sleeper Picks is to draft a team of players based on who you think will perform better than the field. But with Sleeper Picks, you pick teams of 2-8 players from multiple teams based on your preferences and predict whether those players will score more or less than a predetermined amount. There are a number of ways to play and a variety of strategies to employ, and we’ll guide you through the process each week. 

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NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (1/8/24)

Season record: 97-57

Alperen Sengun (C – HOU): OVER 22.5 points

Sengun has been exceptional for the Rockets this season, averaging 21.4 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 5.1 assists per game. He has been on a scoring binge over the past two weeks, upping his points per game to 24 per contest. He has scored 24 or more points in six of his last eight games but has scored less than 22 in two straight. However, he faced elite defensive bigs in each of those contests in Rudy Gobert and Brook Lopez, and should have somewhat of an easier time against Bam Adebayo. With that said Miami has been one of the best in the NBA in terms of limiting points per game to the center position, allowing just 19.33 per contest. This play is more about form and splits (Sengun averages 23.2 points per game on the road) than it is about opponent. Tap the More on Sengun for Monday night.

Fred VanVleet (G – HOU): OVER 16.5 points 

FVV has been solid for the Rockets this season, averaging 17.1 points, 8.5 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. His impact goes beyond the box score as he has been a correlative factor in helping to unlock some of the untapped potential of the Rockets’ young stars. FVV steps up his play on the road when the younger players often struggle, upping his averages to 17.9 points and 9.4 assists per game vs. 16.6 points and 8.0 assists per game at home. His scoring has been sporadic, so I first looked at the assist total, but 7.5 offers minimal value on either side. Van Vleet has been able to step up when the team needs him to, and facing a team with strong defense on the perimeter as well as around the rim, the Rockets are going to need to lean on the veteran’s scoring. Miami has allowed 24.47 points per game to the point guard position this season. Only an atrocious night from deep should prevent VanVleet from hitting at least 17 points tonight. Fire up the More on FVV for Monday night.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (G – OKC): OVER 33.5 points

These point totals are getting ridiculous. Look, I get Shai is averaging 31.5 points per game on the season, but setting the number two points higher just because he is facing the Washington Wizards saps the bulk of the value out of this line. SGA has averaged 33.1 points per game over the last month and has scored 34 or more points in six of his last eight contests. He scored 33 in one of the others. Washington had relinquished the fifth most points per game to the point guard position this season at 26.55 per contest. 33.5 will be an auto fade going forward, but the More is the play tonight due to form and opponent. Slap the More on SGA for tonight's slate.

Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper (and sometimes expiring), so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.

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