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NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (11/3)

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Welcome to Sleeper Picks! Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will break down our top three picks for tonight's NBA action. Similar to fantasy sports, the goal in Sleeper Picks is to draft a team of players based on who you think will perform better than the field. But with Sleeper Picks, you pick teams of 2-8 players from multiple teams based on your preferences and predict whether those players will score more or less than a predetermined amount. There are a number of ways to play and a variety of strategies to employ, and we’ll guide you through the process each week. 

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NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (11/3/23)

Season record: 17-7

Deni Avdija (F – WAS): OVER 9.5 points

Deni Avdija is emerging for the Washington Wizards. For proof, look no further than his 22 point explosion in just 23 minutes of action. The showing should earn him an expanded role, which will help him hit 10 points for the fourth straight game. Avdija is averaging 13 points per game after his big night and figures to start creeping closer to the 30 minute mark. Just 22 years old, Avdija could emerge as the go-to option on a team with discarded volume shooters like Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma. The value is here as long as the number remains at 9.5. For anything higher, we will want to see his minutes expand first. Tap the More on Deni for Friday night.

Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): OVER 0.5 double doubles

This is a run, don’t walk total, as Sleeper Picks totals have expired in the past, most notably on Jokic. There is no reason given yet, but we can assume it has to do with the multiplier and the amount of action they get on the higher probability option. The multiplier here is 1.12, so you may need to pair it with two other More or Less choices, but it is still screaming with value. Jokic is listed at 11.5 rebounds. Jokic has hit double figure rebounds in every game this season and has hit double-digit assists in two. Plays like this have more value than other total chases, as Jokic is a threat in two different categories: in both rebounds and assists. Nikola Vucevic, who was also an option for today's column, has a higher multiplier at 1.18 due to the fact that he is only a threat in rebounds. His rebound total is set at 12.5. Jump on the More on The Joker before it is too late.

Jordan Poole (G – WAS): UNDER 19.5 points

The Poole point totals have been dropping steadily as the talented guard struggles with shot selection and efficiency. He will remain a volume shooter, but with players like Deni Avdija emerging and demanding shots, Poole will need to be solid from the field to have a chance at a 20 point night. With Miami and Jimmy Butler on the horizon, Poole may have another tough night of shooting. Averaging just 17.3 points per game on the season, this line is set where it is due to projected volume. However, Poole has failed to top 13 shot attempts in either of his last two games after taking 18 in the opener and 23 in his second game. The coaching staff likely reigned him in a bit, and a career-worst .385 shooting from the field certainly does not help matters. It is not like he was a marksman to begin with, but sub .400 and the .430 plus he hit in each of the last three seasons are vastly different in terms of being an asset and being a detriment. Poole is always capable of a 26 plus point explosion, but the matchup and trend data suggest a Less play for Friday night.

Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper, so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.

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