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NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (3/6)

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Welcome to Sleeper Picks! Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will break down our top three picks for tonight's NBA action. Similar to fantasy sports, the goal in Sleeper Picks is to draft a team of players based on who you think will perform better than the field. But with Sleeper Picks, you pick teams of 2-8 players from multiple teams based on your preferences and predict whether those players will score more or less than a predetermined amount. There are a number of ways to play and a variety of strategies to employ, and we’ll guide you through the process each week. 

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NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (3/6/24)

Season record: 163-96

John Collins (F/C – UTA): OVER 16.5 points 

Lauri Markkanen will be sidelined for another game on Wednesday, which makes Collins value at 16.5. Collins has recorded 17 or more points in four of his last five games. He has not really upped his shooting volume with Markkanen sidelined but is expected to be more active tonight against a competitive Chicago Bulls team. Collins will be better off at the four in this matchup, so if you have the wherewithal to wait this total out until closer to game time when the starting lineup is revealed, you can determine whether or not this is the high-probability play intended. The Bulls have surrendered 24.04 points per game to the power forward position but just 21.93 to opposing fives. Nikola Vucevic is not an ideal matchup for an undersized big like Collins, so jab the More on Collins only if he is starting at the four.

Damian Lillard (G – MIL): OVER 2.5 three pointers made

Dame has been heating up from deep since the all-star break, draining three or more three pointers in each of his last five games. The percentage from deep is still not as good as it could be, so there is still another level for Lillard to reach to truly transform from Damian back to Dame Time. Dame should be all the way up for a matchup against Steph Curry and the Warriors and is going to take enough threes for the More to hit here. Efficiency will be key, but the Warriors have surrendered an exploitable 2.61 three pointers per game to the point guard position. Dap the More on Damian for Wednesday night.

Chet Holmgren (F/C – OKC): UNDER 9.5 rebounds

I expected this total to be set at 8.5 after Chet managed just seven rebounds on Monday, but for one reason or another, it has been raised to 9.5. Chet has recorded nine or fewer rebounds in four of his past five games played and has hauled in four, six, and 10 rebounds in his three games against the Portland Trail Blazers this season. Yes, the 10 proves he can haul in 10 or more again tonight, but he's averaging just 7.5 on the season, aligning head-to-head data with form and averages. This is a Less play all the way. Hit the Less on Holmgren for Wednesday night basketball.

Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper (and sometimes expiring), so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.

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