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NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (4/29)

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Welcome to Sleeper Picks! Sleeper’s newest offering promised plenty of entertainment and action, and they delivered. We will break down our top three picks for tonight's NBA action. Similar to fantasy sports, the goal in Sleeper Picks is to draft a team of players based on who you think will perform better than the field. But with Sleeper Picks, you pick teams of 2-8 players from multiple teams based on your preferences and predict whether those players will score more or less than a predetermined amount. There are a number of ways to play and a variety of strategies to employ, and we’ll guide you through the process each week. 

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NBA Sleeper Picks Player Predictions (4/29/24)

Regular season record: 202-130
Playoff record: 11-13

Jayson Tatum (F – BOS): OVER 4.5 1st quarter points

Tatum at 4.5 seems generous, given how high this total was often listed at during the regular season. Tatum has scored five or more first quarter points in two of the three games in this series, but his two point output in Game 3 should leave cause for concern. The playoffs are a different beast, and Tatum has scored five or fewer points in two of three games, which is why they couldn't list this line at 5.5 instead. With that being said, Tatum took just three first quarter shots during Game 3, so if he dials up the aggressiveness, hitting five points should be easily achievable. Tatum should be looking to do just that after Miami lit it up from behind the arc in Game 2, putting a scare into a Celtics team that should have dispatched the Heat easily in four. Tap the More on Tatum for Game 4.

Jaylen Brown (G/F – BOS): OVER 20.5 points

Jaylen is the straw that stirs the drink. Jayson Tatum is seen as the star, and Kristaps Prozingis and Jrue Holiday are seen as the missing pieces that will help push the Celtics over the hump. However, Jaylen Brown stepping up will be the difference between an excellent regular season and a Championship parade this summer. His point totals have been modest by his standards, but he has scored 22 or more in two straight but, more importantly (for our purposes), has taken at least 20 shot attempts in each of those contests. If Jaylen takes 20+ shots, it is rare that he will not hit at least 21 points. He should be locked in tonight as the Celtics attempt to go up 3-1, so expect a high-volume night from the field and for him to go into takeover mode in the second half. Bump the More on Brown for Game 4.

Michael Porter Jr. (F – DEN): OVER 4.5 1st quarter points

MPJ has scored seven or more first quarter points in two of his last three games and should look to be aggressive in the first as the Denver Nuggets attempt to slam the door shut on the Lakers’ dreams of becoming the first team ever to overcome an 0-3 deficit in the NBA Playoffs. MPJ has been a strong first quarter points option for the last few months of the regular season, so it is encouraging that he has now seemed to adjust back into playoff mode and continues to click on the More plays. Mash the More on MPJ for Monday night.

Writers note: The lines are constantly changing on Sleeper (and sometimes expiring), so there is a high probability that one or all of the numbers may no longer be the same when you open your app. There are excellent values when they are first posted, with the only catch being that they are not all released at the same time. Vigilance could provide a solid return on investment this season, literally.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

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Raju Byfield is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Raju, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyContext.

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