NCAA Tournament Best Bets for Friday, March 25th (2022 March Madness)
The first night was pretty exciting, wasn't it? Night two should be just eventful with some interesting matchups. Both No. 1 seeds and tournament favorites went down yesterday. Will tonight be the clean sweep? Or will the Jayhawks be the only top seed to move on to the Elite Eight?
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No. 8 North Carolina vs. UCLA (-1.5) O/U 141.5 (Tip: 9:39 p.m. ET CBS)
UNC is a clear example of striking while the fire is hot. Who would have thought the dominant win against Duke for Coach K's swan song in Cameron would spark this type of run. They've put up 90+ points three times this month and over 45% from the field.
They have talent both inside the boards and out, and they can score effectively in transition through defensive rebounds. The Bruins will need to shoot well because they won't be getting second chances - North Carolina dominates on the boards and has 40 or more rebounds in five of the last seven games, with forward Armando Bacot just slightly above his season average at 12.7 rebounds in the previous four games.
UCLA can also get hot on offense, and Tar Heels seem to crumble when their opponent makes a comeback. If you look back at the end of the game against Baylor, the Bears mounted a 16-point rally as they hit their shots, and it seemed like North Carolina forgot how to play defense. You saw the same incident back in the ACC semi-final against a Virginia Tech team that is devastating behind the arc. North Carolina is 0-6 when teams hit 51% of their shots, and the Bruins are 22-0 when shooting 43% or better. UCLA was 57% against Saint Mary's and got to the 50% mark 10 times this season.
UCLA has the talent to strike fear in the Tar Heels, but they don't have the defensive firepower, especially on the boards. They have to hit their perimeter shots if they want to win this game because they’re not doing it against Bacot. The spread is at two, and that's not high enough to go either way. This has the making of another memorable game with a lot of scoring.
No. 4 Providence vs. No. 1 Kansas (-7.5) O/U 141.5 (Tip: 7:29 p.m. ET TBS)
Providence is one of those teams with chemistry that plays smart, veteran basketball. They move the ball well, force opponents to send them the line, and don't rely on one guy to score. While they’ve made it this far, the team has struggled a bit over the last month - they shot over 50% in the last game against Richmond but hadn't hit over 40% in the previous three games.
They can't be off their game when they are going against the Jayhawks, or it'll be over quick. Kansas has been battled tested with a tough schedule lately - Creighton played them last week, they beat Texas Tech, who was one of the last 16, and played a TCU team that nearly beat Arizona three times in March.
Over the last few games, we’re seeing the Remy Martin we expected to get from Arizona State. He’s gone from just being a facilitator to a true scoring threat as he had 20 points off the bench against Creighton and is now another option in an already excellent offensive lineup.
The question is, which Providence offense are we going to see? Will it be the team that shot 50% in their last game or the one that shot 30% against the same Creighton that Kansas just beat? The Jayhawks are 33rd in three-point-defense (30.4% allowed), and 37th in opponent effective field percentage (46.6%). With a Friars team that isn’t consistent, it is going to be tough. Ignore that the one seeds had a bad day yesterday and chalk up.
No. 15 Saint Peter's vs. No. 3 Purdue (-12.5) O/U 133.5 (Tip: 7:09 p.m. ET CBS)
Saint Peter's is a great story, and it's one of the reasons you love this tournament. They should not have made it out of the first round against one of the best rebounding teams and Oscar Tshiebwe, the potential Wooden Award winner. They were able to shoot 51% from the field against Kentucky, then it was the defense that held Murry State under 35% from the field. While they don't have the better talent, they have the bench depth, which helps keep fresh players on the floor. In fact, Doug Elbert, who’s become the emerging star of the tournament, is their best performer coming off the bench with 20 points against Kentucky and 13 against Murray State.
What makes Purdue so dangerous is they can score on you from anywhere on the court. They can out-size the Peacocks in the frontcourt with the 6-foot-10 Trevion Williams and 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, who are averaging seven rebounds per game. Then you have to deal with Sasha Stefanovic, who's shooting 37% from three, and the dangerous Jaden Ivey, who's hitting 50% from three in the tournament and averaging 20 points.
What makes them a legit contender is everyone's contribution so far in this tournament. Their entire lineup, from the starters to deep in the bench, has found a way to help this team.
It's going to come down to if Saint Peter can stop the three. They are allowing opponents to shoot under 30% from behind the arc, but Purdue is fourth in the country at 38.8%. While the Peacocks are efficient at shooting the three themselves, they don't make as many per game (Purdue has a +5 margin in three-pointers per game). Purdue will not have to rely on their outside shooting. They have the physicality and vastly out-size Saint Peter’s on the boards. This was a fun ride for the Peacocks, but it ends here.
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