NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheat Sheet, Strategy & Picks (2024 March Madness)
March Madness is always one of the most thrilling sporting events of the year, with the marathon slate of first-round games on Thursday and Friday especially captivating the nation. Even the most casual of fans watch intently on those days with their filled-out brackets in hand, waiting in anticipation and hoping their brackets are not busted within the first 48 hours of the tournament.
Depending on the size of one’s March Madness bracket pool and the amount of competition one will face, there are different strategies to give contestants an advantage and an optimal chance for success.
This article offers tips for navigating smaller bracket pools vs. larger pools and provides sample picks for each. In addition, we discuss teams we like and teams to avoid entering the tournament, citing which teams are prime to be bracket busters and which are on upset alert. And make sure to check out our 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Optimizer to take down your pools!
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NCAA Tournament Bracket Cheat Sheet
For reference, last year’s March Madness Bracket Cheat Sheet article correctly advised picking San Diego State and Miami to the Elite 8 if participating in large bracket pools, as well as UConn winning the national championship. If you did, you likely took home a big chunk of the prize money with those contrarian plays.
Bracket Tips for Smaller Pools
Know Your League’s Scoring Format
There are several different ways bracket pools are scored. One of the most common ways is that the points for each correct pick double each round. First-round games would be worth one point, culminating with awarding 32 points for predicting the right national champion. Under that format, it becomes imperative to pick the correct winner.
Other pools offer incentives for picking upsets based on points awarded for correct picks relative to a team’s seed. For example, if you correctly picked a No. 1 seed to win a game, you might earn one point but would earn ten points for successfully choosing a No. 10 seed to advance. Under this format, the winner’s total points are much higher, thus making identifying the correct champion less crucial.
Do Not Go Crazy With Upsets
There is not as much competition in smaller pools, so one, in theory, would not have to go too crazy picking upsets everywhere. However, no NCAA Tournament goes entirely chalk either (it’s “March Madness,†after all), so one would want to separate themselves by picking some surprises.
Keep in mind the following historical trends about No. 1 seeds. First, just two No. 1 seeds (2018 Virginia, 2023 Purdue) have ever lost their opening-round games (No. 1 seeds are 150-2 overall vs. No. 16 seeds), so go ahead and advance all four No. 1 seeds to the Round of 32. In addition, since 1985, No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16 83.8% of the time (134 of 160), so losing to the winner of the 8-9 game in their region is not likely to happen either. However, in each of the past two NCAA tournaments, one No. 1 seed was upset in the Round of 32 or earlier. By comparison, No. 2 seeds advance to the Sweet 16 61.9% of the time (99 of 160).
Bracket Tips for Larger Pools
Diversify Your Picks With Multiple Brackets
Some people find issues with contestants who submit multiple brackets. But if league rules allow for more than one submission, why not take advantage? When entering numerous brackets, make sure to diversify your Final Four and national championship selections since those are the rounds that are worth the most points.
It is also wise to occasionally pick a national champion that is not among the top pre-tournament favorites, as one would earn a significant advantage over the competition that mainly picked favorites. Your national champion does not automatically have to be a No. 1 seed, as just 63.2% of all national champions (24 of 38) since 1985 have been a No. 1 seed, though last year snapped a streak of five consecutive No. 1 seeds being crowned as national champions.
Get Creative With Upsets
The most fun part of March Madness is the Cinderella stories, the underdogs that pull surprising upsets and advance further than most thought possible. One area to identify a potential sleeper is in the “First Four†games, as teams like VCU in 2011 and UCLA three years ago made the Final Four despite being chosen as one of the few teams needed to “play their way into†the tournament.
The following table (courtesy of ncaa.com) details how often a first-round upset has occurred since 1985. As you will see, No. 5 and No. 6 seeds are seemingly much better teams than the No. 11 and No. 12 seeds, but those games are often some of the likeliest upsets (No. 5 and No. 6 seeds did go a combined 7-1 in the first round last year).
| SEED VS. SEED. | W-L | PCT. |
|---|---|---|
| #1 vs. #16 | 150-2 | .987 |
| #2 vs. #15 | 141-11 | .928 |
| #3 vs. #14 | 130-22 | .855 |
| #4 vs. #13 | 120-32 | .789 |
| #5 vs. #12 | 99-53 | .651 |
| #6 vs. #11 | 94-58 | .618 |
| #7 vs. #10* | 92-59 | .609 |
| #8 vs. #9 | 74-78 | .487 |
Thus, find the right balance between upsets and higher-seeded teams advancing. Also, remember that no team lower than a No. 11 seed has ever reached the Final Four, and just one year (2008) has seen a Final Four comprised of all No. 1 seeds. In fact, three No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four on just five other occasions, and there was not a single top-three seed in last year’s Final Four.
Sleepers To Target
No. 7 Florida
The Gators lost seven conference games this year, but were rightfully given a lot of respect as a No. 7 seed given the strength of the SEC, and the fact that they beat two NCAA Tournament teams (Alabama and Texas A&M) en route to the SEC Tournament final. Florida has length across the board (the 12th tallest team in the country based on average height), experienced guards, an explosive offense (14th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency), and it defends the 3-point line (30.7% allowed in SEC play was the league’s best). Florida should get by the play-in winner between Boise State and Colorado, and is ripe for an upset of No. 2 Marquette, as point guard Tyler Kolek still might not be 100% after sitting out the Big East Tournament with an oblique injury. Florida would also not be scared of SEC rival Kentucky in a potential Sweet 16 matchup, as it lost by two to the Wildcats in the first matchup and beat them at Rupp Arena in the rematch.
No. 13 Samford
No. 13 seeds went 1-3 SU in last year’s NCAA tournament, but have won six first round games over the previous four tournaments. The Bulldogs play the kind of style that can give most teams fits, shooting 3-pointers at the eighth-best rate in the country, and attempting them at a top 90 rate. Samford likes to play up-tempo (it ranks 14th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo), and it gets a Kansas squad that may have lost its best player on both ends, Kevin McCullar, for the season. The Bulldogs’ up-tempo attack will play to their strength in the altitude of Salt Lake City, and we would not be surprised to find them in the Sweet 16 as they would also be a tough matchup for the Gonzaga/McNeese winner.
No. 9 TCU
Each year certain sportsbooks release odds for the first No. 1 seed to fall, and this year it could again be Purdue, who has lost to a No. 15 seed and No. 16 seed in consecutive seasons. TCU will prove to be a tough matchup for No. 8 seed Utah State, and it has the exact formula needed to beat Purdue, as it is able to contend with the size of Zach Edey while playing tough and physical against the Boilermaker guards. The Horned Frogs force turnovers at the 22nd-highest rate this season, and also rank in the top 20 in offensive rebounding rate.
Teams on Upset Alert
No. 5 Gonzaga- The Bulldogs drew arguably the most dangerous No. 12 seed in the field in the first round in McNeese, who is one of four teams that won 30-plus games this season. McNeese won its two conference tournament games by a combined 35 points, and turns opponents over at the sixth-highest rate in the country. Gonzaga’s up-tempo attack will not intimidate the Cowboys, and McNeese plays the sort of packed-in defense (it allows the highest 3-point rate in the country) that will bother the post-up game of Gonzaga’s Graham Ike.
No. 5 Wisconsin- Wisconsin is the second No. 5 seed that drew a 30-win first round opponent in James Madison. The Badgers masked a 3-8 finish to the regular season by getting to the Big Ten Conference Tournament final, but they are a poor defensive team on the perimeter, as they allowed the highest 3-point percentage of any team in Big Ten play. JMU is the 12th-most experienced team in the league and will have a distinct rest advantage with 11 days off by the time Friday’s game tips. The Dukes are 9-3 ATS on four or more days off this season, and are ripe for the upset in Brooklyn.
Sample Picks to Enter For Small Pools
- Elite 8 matchups: UConn/Iowa State, Houston/Kentucky, Purdue/Creighton, UNC/Arizona
- National Championship: UConn over Houston
Sample Bracket to Enter For Large Pools
- Elite 8 matchups: Auburn/Illinois, Houston/Florida, TCU/Tennessee, Alabama/Arizona
- National Championship: Tennessee over Arizona
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.