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NCAA Tournament Cinderella Guide & Sleeper Picks (March Madness)

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One of the greatest excitements when filling out your bracket:  What team will be that special Cinderella?

While it doesn't happen all too often, teams that go on Cinderella runs are impossible to forget, and every year offers a new opportunity for one to be born. As Will Warren points out, this is the biggest difference between 1-4 seeds and 13-16 seeds in KenPom history. So, there may not be as much exciting first-round action as expected.

The term "Cinderella" is thrown around and has no solidified meaning. In this case, I am simply referring to any team seeded 13 or lower as a Cinderella candidate to make it at least to the second weekend. There are some pretty incredible 12 seeds in this tournament (looking at you, McNeese State), but I will not include those in this article.

Here's a look at the 16 lowest-seeded teams in the tournament, along with their chances of a first-round upset (out of five ★).

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NCAA Tournament Cinderella Guide & Sleeper Picks

    No. 13 Seeds

    Samford Bulldogs (29-5 SU; 18-14 ATS; 15-17 O/U)

    If you’re looking for a fun team to jump on the bandwagon for this tournament, Samford might be your team. With a pace of play ranking in the top 20 in the nation, the Bulldogs can sling it from deep and force turnovers. Despite losing their first two games of the season by a combined 63 points, Samford still stepped up class against higher competition. Against a top-150 squad, the Bulldogs forced turnovers at a top-10 rate in the country. Considering they have a top-10 shooting percentage from deep - with Jaden Campbell making nearly half his threes - they are capable of sticking with any opponent.

    The problem is, when the shots aren’t falling, they don’t have much of a fall-back plan. Their second-chance conversion percentage ranks outside the top 300, and they foul at a high rate, so opponents get nearly 20% of points at the charity stripe. Also, Samford has had the ball bounce their way, ranking sixth in KenPom’s luck metric while owning an 18-14 Shot Quality record. In a game of inches, the draw has gone to Samford. Achor Achor is an awesome center, but it will be interesting to see if Samford has any more special sauce in them for the Big Dance.

    With Kevin McCullar out for Kansas, Samford is in a position to bring down Bill Self and Co. Considering their pace and lack of depth for the Jayhawks, there is a strong chance the Bulldogs can pull off an upset merely by exhausting Kansas. They could theoretically keep pace with Gonzaga or matchup against McNeese, making them the 13-seed I like most to reach the Sweet 16.

    Cinderella Potential: ★★★★

    Charleston Cougars (27-7 SU; 16-16-1 ATS; 18-15 O/U)

    After Pat Kelsey led Charleston to a 31-4 record last year, the Cougars won their conference tournament to make their second consecutive NCAA Tournament. Now, they plan to redeem a first-round loss from a year ago with hopes of a Cinderella run. Charleston has a fun offense to watch, with high three-point attempts and solid offensive rebounding numbers. Their frontcourt shines, with Ante Brzovic and Ben Burnham anchoring, while Reyne Smith will attempt double-digit shots from deep in any given game. They can get hot, shooting nearly 40% from the perimeter.

    Where Charleston leaves more to be wanted is defensively. Ranking outside the top 150 in defensive efficiency, Charleston forces few turnovers and has an interior defense that allows opponents to shoot 65% near the rim, ranking 359th in the nation. That is not great. They may take care of the ball well, but game planning for Charleston won’t be as difficult with their relatively straightforward look. High pacing is tough to face, and their bench gets a lot of minutes. Of course, they can get hot from deep and surprise in the tournament, but their defense needs to overperform to win some games.

    Considering they face one of the most high-powered offenses in the league, their defense will really have to step up. I believe in Charleston’s ability to match up well against the 112th-ranked Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide will just have to miss a few shots, which is well within the realm of possibilities based on how inconsistent Alabama has been this year.

    Cinderella Potential: ★★★

    Vermont Catamounts (28-6 SU; 14-18 ATS; 9-23 O/U)

    The Catamounts of Vermont are the auto-bid out of the American East. Vermont’s primary strength is its defensive prowess, ranking top 60 in defensive efficiency. Vermont excels in limiting opponents’ shooting percentage, particularly from beyond the arc, where it holds opponents to just 32% three-point shooting, ranking top 50 nationally. Additionally, the Catamounts’ defense effectively restricts midrange and overall field goal percentages. Offensively, Vermont leaves something to be desired, with one of the lowest offensive rebound percentages in the nation and a below-average free throw rate.

    With Vermont’s lackluster perimeter game, it shouldn’t be that difficult to gameplan for John Becker’s squad. Despite offensive inefficiencies, Vermont is recognized as one of the most consistent teams in NCAA basketball, currently ranked 21st in consistency. If the Catamounts take care of the ball while eliminating second-chance looks with their top-10 defensive rebound percentage, an upset is well within reach, especially if their opponent has an off-night shooting. Beyond that, Vermont’s ceiling is capped.

    As one of the slowest teams in the nation, it helps that variance is on their side against Duke. Vermont should be fine on the boards, but they have to hope Duke’s 15th-ranked perimeter shooting doesn’t show up. There are many paths to defeat here and not many victories, and their second-round matchup would be difficult no matter who they face.

    Cinderella Potential: ★★

    Yale Bulldogs (22-9 SU; 15-12-2 ATS; 16-13 O/U)

    After hope seemed lost, trailing Brown 60-54 with under 30 seconds remaining in the Ivy League Tournament championship game, some timely missed free throws and a buzzer-beater propelled Yale into the Big Dance. This solid all-around team plays slow and ranks in the top 100 offensively and defensively. Yale takes care of the ball and capitalizes on the defensive boards, allowing the Bulldogs a high shot volume while not giving anything free to opponents. Yale’s lack of depth is concerning. The Bulldogs’ perimeter defense allows opponents to score 35% of their points from deep, the 46th highest in the nation. Yale has many double-digit scorers, but it’s just a question of whether someone can take over and spark an upset or two.

    It’s hard to trust Yale, especially after a mediocre outing in the Ivy League championship. I only give them two stars because if they get past Auburn, I trust their ability to take on San Diego State. Auburn might be one of the worst draws for Yale, though, but the Ivy representative is always feisty.

    Cinderella Potential: ★★

    No. 14 Seeds

    Akron Zips (24-10 SU; 15-16-1 ATS; 12-20 O/U) 

    Considering Akron’s performance this season, opponents shouldn’t overlook the Zips as the auto-bid out of the MAC. Akron’s strength lies in its defensive capabilities, ranking in the top 100 in defensive efficiency. Particularly noteworthy is the Zips’ prowess in defending against three-point shots, ranking in the top 15 nationally by holding opponents to just 30% from beyond the arc.

    What will be limiting for John Groce’s team is offense. Ranking outside the top 150 in adjusted offensive efficiency, Akron is hard to trust as a Cinderella candidate, especially when it lost to two sub-300-ranked KenPom teams to finish the regular season. Ali Ali is solid in the frontcourt, and Greg Tribble is a capable shooter, but beyond that, there isn’t much to get excited about with this Akron squad, which was bailed out to earn the auto-bid.

    What favors Akron is how they slow down the game and how dependent Creighton is on the perimeter shot. If Creighton is missing their threes, there will be plenty of opportunity for Akron to stay in this game. If you told me a 14-seed won in the first round, I’d put my money on the Zips.

    Cinderella Potential: ★★

    Morehead State Eagles (26-8 SU; 19-11 ATS; 15-15 O/U) 

    Before dropping three games in February, Morehead State looked like the clear-cut favorite to take down the Ohio Valley. Jordan Lathon - the Robin to Riley Minix’s Batman - missed a few games and was a big reason the Eagles fell. At full strength, Morehead steamrolled, winning six straight, with five of those wins by double-digits.

    The Eagles slow down the place and take a ton of threes, averaging almost nine more attempts than their opponent a game. Their defense allows nothing from the perimeter, with only 25% of opponents’ points coming from beyond the arc, ranked 337th lowest in the nation. On the interior, their mid-range defense is top-50 in the nation, while their near-proximity is up to par. Preston Spradlin’s squad is solid on paper, but they haven’t lived up to superior opponents.

    Going 0-4 in the first two quadrants, Morehead State ranked 224th on Bart Torvik against top-150 opponents. They also only have two wins over top-200 KenPom teams all year. They take a lot of perimeter looks, so if they are hot, an upset is capable. It seems that Morehead State doesn’t step up to their competition, and it will be a question of whether they can when it matters.

    The Eagles are a solid team but got a tough draw in Big Ten champs Illinois. I simply don’t see them keeping up with the Illini, despite Minix’s play.

    Cinderella Potential: ★

    Oakland Golden Grizzlies (23-11 SU; 21-13 ATS; 21-13 O/U)

    When push came to shove, Oakland stepped up and claimed the Horizon League title to earn an auto-bid into the NCAA tournament. Trey Townsend led the way in the tourney championship, playing all 40 minutes and tallying 38 points. Jack Gohlke comes off the bench but plays starter minutes, with 327/335 shots attempted this year coming from beyond the arc.

    Defensively, the Golden Grizzlies avoid freebies, keeping teams off the charity stripe and ranking in the top 30 in defensive second-chance scoring percentage. However, they allow a lot of threes and open looks. Offensively, they’ll also attempt a fair share of perimeter looks, but they rank outside the top 300 in transition scoring and second-chance looks.

    Currently, there are health questions surrounding Isaiah Jones and Rocket Watts. While Trey Townsend is the team’s star, both are impact players and missing either would limit the Golden Grizzlies chance at an upset. The metrics don’t favor Oakland either, with their Shot Quality record sitting at 18-16, five more losses than their actual record. They did have a top-15 non-conference strength of schedule, beating Xavier on the road. Overall, it wasn’t a great performance, but that does bode well for tournament preparedness. Considering luck was on their side this season, the injuries impacting them and their lack of an offensive backup plan if shots aren’t falling, a lot would have to go Oakland’s way to make a Cinderella run.

    The fifth offense against the 165th defense is not promising for the Golden Grizzlies. What is promising is the potential to get hot from deep. Slowing down the pace and making your threes is a solid start to any upset. I don’t see it happening, but Kentucky does define high-ceiling, low-floor.

    Cinderella Potential: ★★

    Colgate Raiders (25-9 SU; 17-15-1 ATS; 12-21 O/U)

    Matt Langel has led Colgate to their fourth straight tournament as the representative out of the Patriot League. They have yet to win a tournament game in his tenure, so maybe this will be the year.

    If you are aware of the Colgate of old, this team has a different identity. Last year’s squad led the nation in three-point shooting percentage; this year, it ranks around 75th. As Will Warren points out, there’s a big reason why Colgate hasn’t had success in the tournament, and that comes down to one thing: shot volume. Ranking outside the top 300 in both offensive rebound rates, the Raiders don’t exactly have dynamic options in the scoring department. Their perimeter defense is solid, and they own a near top-100 defense, but they also have the 342nd overall strength of schedule, with only one win all year against a top-150 KenPom team. The NCAA Tournament is simply a different beast, and it will be a David vs. Goliath-type game for Colgate.

    That Goliath is Baylor. With the sixth-ranked offense, Colgate’s only path to victory is Baylor going 6-30 from deep. It’s not the craziest thing to happen, but the Bears simply outclass Colgate in athleticism with Scott Drew at the helm. This is my least likely 14-seed to win in the first round.

    Cinderella Potential: ★

    No. 15 Seeds

    Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (22-11 SU; 19-11 ATS; 15-15 O/U)

    With yet another 20+-win season, the Hilltoppers are back in the NCAA Tournament after taking down CUSA. Following four straight losses entering the conference tournament, Western Kentucky turned it around with three straight dubs. This will be a fun team to watch in March. WKU is the single fastest-paced team in the nation, with the highest number of total field goals attempted in transition. They don’t attempt many perimeter shots, with only 40% of their looks coming from deep, ranking 322nd in the country.

    The Hilltoppers’ defense gives Steve Lutz’s squad a reasonable floor, as their defensive efficiency sits right around the top 100. The Hilltoppers allow more perimeter looks than you’d want for a team with Cinderella potential, but at the very least, this could be one of the more fun teams to watch with their pace, depth and solid play out of Don McHenry.

    If there is a 15-seed to take down a two-seed in the first round, it’s Western Kentucky. Especially if Tyler Kolek is out, WKU can take advantage of the Golden Eagles’ subpar shooting, and mere shot opportunities with how fast they run to potentially pull off an upset.

    Cinderella Potential: ★★

    Long Beach State Beach (21-14 SU; 16-17 ATS; 19-14 O/U)

    Despite a mutual separation agreement between Long Beach State and head coach Dan Monson, Long Beach State made an improbable run in the Big West Tournament to capture an auto-bid. Long Beach State leans heavily on its offense to secure victories. This team favors midrange shots, ranking top 30 in ratio of midrange attempts to total field goal attempts, although Long Beach State’s conversion rate on these shots is mediocre.

    Defensively, Long Beach State struggles, ranking on the lower end in defensive efficiency and struggling to defend against three-point shots. Opponents often capitalize on this weakness by attempting a large percentage of their shots from long distance. Interestingly, Long Beach State performs better on the road, ranking top 45 nationally in the away-from-home metric. This suggests they may have some advantages when playing in neutral-court games.

    Long Beach State’s experience suggests there’s some upset potential, with Aboubacar Traore and Lassina Traore anchoring the frontcourt. Still, with the lack of perimeter threats and the holes in the defense, especially on the perimeter, it’s tough to trust this squad. Long Beach State may be a favorite of Ken and Barbie, as they are the literal “Beach,” but there will only be so much a seemingly banged-up Marcus Tsohonis can do to lead his team beyond the first round.

    If I could, I’d give this one and a half stars, but only because of recent history. Arizona is basically a better version of LBSU and should have no problem with the pace. The Beach contends with Arizona in terms of athleticism, but given the firepower Arizona has and lack of Beach defense, I do not see Arizona losing in the first round again.

    Cinderella Potential: ★★

    South Dakota State Jackrabbits (22-12 SU; 16-14-1 ATS; 15-15-1 O/U)

    After starting the season going 1-4 with their only win coming against a Division II opponent, South Dakota State really came together in the end, winning eight straight games, including three Summit League tournament games, to earn an auto-bid into the NCAA Tournament.

    The Jackrabbits not only have one of the better mascots in the tournament but also a solid offense. SDSU owns a top-25 effective field goal percentage with Zeke Mayo and Luke Appel leading their inside-out approach. No team is perfect, and every team has flaws, but the Jackrabbits have a truly remarkable fatal flaw: three-point defense. With a defensive shooting percentage ranking outside the top 250, no other team in the nation has more opponent points coming from beyond the arc than South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits allow many threes, have a low free-throw rate and have an offensive rebound percentage tanked outside the top 300. Anything is possible come March, and I truly mean that. South Dakota State has a solid offense, but the Jackrabbits’ profile does not bode well for tournament success.

    With Iowa State’s offense ranking outside the top 50, there is a path for the Cyclones to have an off game and the Jackrabbits to surprise.

    Cinderella Potential: ★

    Saint Peter’s Peacocks (19-13 SU; 20-11 ATS; 15-16 O/U)

    The Peacocks are dancing again after clinching an automatic bid with a thrilling victory over Quinnipiac and a resilient win over Fairfield in Atlantic City. While it’s exciting to see a recognizable team back in the tournament, don’t expect much from Saint Peter’s this time around.

    This team’s strength is its defense, ranked inside the top 80 in efficiency. The Peacocks excel in preventing opponents from scoring in the paint, ranking inside the top 60 nationally in defensive near-proximity percentage and limiting close-range shot opportunities. However, Saint Peter’s tendency to foul and send opponents to the free-throw line is a notable weakness on defense.

    Offensively, St. Peter’s falls short, and that’s putting it kindly. The Peacocks’ primary offensive strength lies in securing second-chance opportunities off missed shots. Still, they rank 349th in effective field goal percentage, which is quite unpromising for a Cinderella run. Their slow pace can manufacture some luck with fewer possessions, and their solid defense and ability to get to the charity stripe and score second-chance points give them some hope. 

    I know it’s tempting, especially considering Rick Barnes struggles in March, but I can’t see it happening. The Peacocks are simply too outmatched here.

    Cinderella Potential: ★

    No. 16 Seeds

    I won't go team-by-team, covering the 16 seeds and their upset potential, because I see the chances of that happening as infinitesimal. I know it happened last year, but the chances of it happening two years in a row feel even lower.

    If you told me it happened, my selection would be Wagner. They have the mojo after a win and will slow down the pace. North Carolina is the weakest 1-seed in the field and has a low ceiling for shooting. At least give me Wagner against the spread. EvanMiya gives Longwood the biggest upset chance for any 16 seed at 3.7% if you want to roll those dice. And no, Purdue will not be losing again in the first round.

    Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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