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NCAA Tournament: First Four Odds & Picks (2024 March Madness)

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While most college basketball fans wait in anticipation for the non-stop March Madness action on Thursday and Friday, often some of the most suspenseful early games of the NCAA Tournament take place in the First Four. Due to a shrinking NCAA Tournament bubble as a result of all the upsets in conference tournament play, two play in games are between No. 10 seeds as opposed to games between No. 11 seeds, along with four No. 16 seeds playing two play-in games for the right to face No. 1 seeds.

Here are our two best bets for the First Four games and leans for the others. And make sure to check out our 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Optimizer to take down your pools!

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Best College Basketball Bets for the First Four 

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

No. 16 Grambling St. vs. No. 16 Montana State (-4) | O/U 134 (-110/-110) 

Montana State is in the NCAA Tournament under first year head coach Matt Logie after getting scalding hot from 3-point range in March. The Bobcats shot 48.1%, 48.1%, and 40.7% from beyond the arc leading up to the Big Sky Conference Tournament final, and overcame a 26.1% shooting effort from the perimeter to beat rival Montana for the third time this season in the championship game. However, Grambling State is ripe for its first ever NCAA Tournament victory, in large part because of how it defends the 3-point line, allowing the second-lowest 3-point percentage (30.0%) in SWAC play.

Montana State has a huge weakness inside, as it entered its conference final ranked in the seventh percentile in defensive rim efficiency, per Synergy. In addition, because it chooses to bomb away from 3-point range regularly, it is not the most sound team analytically, as ShotQuality pegged all of its games in March leading up to the final as losses, when it really went 3-1 SU in the four games. Grambling State may not share the basketball as well as most teams (it ranked last in league play in assists per field goals made), but it uses the isolation game as well as anyone, and attacks the rim with reckless abandon. The Tigers rank in the bottom 30 in Division I in 3-point attempt rate, and get 53% of their points (106th in the country) from inside the arc. Their relentless attack of the rim will put pressure on Montana State’s weakest link defensively, and they should force enough turnovers (the Tigers rank in the top 60 nationally in forced turnover rate) to lead to a cover or outright win.

Grambling State is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games, while Montana State went a poor 2-8 ATS in 10 non-conference games.

Bet: Grambling St. +4 (-110)

No. 10 Colorado (-2) vs. No. 10 Boise State | O/U 140.5 (-110/-110) 

On one hand, the Mountain West did incredibly well to get six teams into the NCAA Tournament. But most of those teams have claims to being underseeded, as does Boise State being given a No. 10 seed and relegated to a play-in game.

Few teams have better positional size on the wings than the Broncos, who used their length all season to defend the 3-point line at the 23rd-best rate nationally, while finishing with a top-five defensive rebounding percentage. Boise State owns a massive non-conference win against Saint Mary’s, and won two of its last three regular season games against NCAA Tournament teams, including a road win at San Diego State in a building where the Aztecs are 29-2 in since the start of last season.

Colorado only won one game away from home against an NCAA Tournament team, and that was against Oregon, who made a miraculous run in the Pac-12 Tournament to win the league’s automatic bid. Buffaloes point guard KJ Simpson ranked in the top eight in league play in percentage of his team’s possession and shots taken, but the Broncos have the perfect foil for him in Roddie Anderson, who ranked third in the Mountain West in steal percentage and is one of the most harassing on-ball defenders Simpson will see all season.

After losing in its opening round of the Mountain West Tournament, Boise State will have two extra days of rest compared to Colorado, who played on Saturday in its conference championship. That is significant, as the Broncos went 6-4 ATS with a rest advantage, while the Buffaloes went 6-10 ATS in games outside of Boulder this season.

Bet: Boise State +2 (-110)

Other Leans:

Colorado State -1.5, Howard -3

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Check out all of our 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>

Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.

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