NCAA Tournament Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sweet 16 (Friday)
After four days of Madness, there are just 16 teams remaining in the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
The ACC is the story of the tournament so far, as four teams from the conference made the tournament, and each made it to the Sweet 16. NC State is the Cinderella and the only double-digit seed remaining in the tournament; however, Clemson has also outplayed expectations with two strong wins.
Let’s take a look at the best bets for Day 2 of the Sweet 16 on Friday.
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2024 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Odds & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
#5 Gonzaga vs. #1 Purdue
Both of these teams are coming off two straight blowout wins in the first and second rounds, so it’s tough to get a pulse on what to expect in this matchup, as neither team has been tested yet.
Purdue has been riding the National Player of the Year in Zach Edey, who’s already racked up 53 points and 35 rebounds through two games. Purdue will go as far as Edey takes them. On the other hand, Gonzaga’s run has been fueled by extremely efficient shooting. The Bulldogs are shooting 56% from the field, including an incredible 50% from 3-point range in the Tournament.
While I don’t expect Gonzaga to shoot 50+% from three-point range the entire tournament and know this number may dip, I still like them in this matchup. Utah State could not defend Edey, with starting forward Great Osobor being only 6-foot-8 and their taller reserve players being very inexperienced with limited minutes this season. On the other hand, I think Mark Few will have a game plan in place to limit Edey’s effectiveness. The Zags may be equipped enough to weather the storm with a bigger, more experienced frontcourt than the Aggies. Forwards Graham Ike, Anton Watson and Ben Gregg give the Zags players who’ve logged a ton of minutes in their careers and know what it will take to slow down Edey.
Look for Few to use a strong rotation of these players and rising 6-foot-10 Freshman Braden Huff to attempt to stifle Edey. They limited the 7-foot-2 Hunter Dickinson to 15 points and five rebounds on 40% shooting from the field.
Gonzaga and Few are still searching for the elusive National Championship after 25 years, but I think they can make a run this year as a dangerous five seed.
Pick: Gonzaga +5.5 (-112)
#3 Creighton vs. #2 Tennessee
Creighton has been great all season and is battle-tested after playing in the Big East against strong opponents. They are well-coached under Greg McDermott and most expected them to be here at the beginning of this season.
However, after watching their second-round game against Oregon this past weekend, I am concerned about their future. They barely won in double overtime despite some glaring stats. Typically a good shooting team, they shot under 40% from the field and three-point range. In addition, they were outscored 40-18 in the paint despite having three-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year, Ryan Kalkbrenner. N’Faly Dante had his way with Kalkbrenner, putting up 28 points and 20 rebounds on 60% shooting from the field. Oregon’s lineup is similar to Tennessee’s as they are both smaller teams anchored by 7-foot big men in the frontcourt. Could Jonas Aidoo have similar success as Dante in the paint?
On the other hand, Tennessee only beat Texas by four with 62 total points on the night. This was unusual for them; their season average is closer to 80 PPG. They shot an abysmal 34% from the field, including just 12% from three-point range. Part of this can be attributed to Texas being a strong defensive team and an off-night shooting for the Vols. All-American Dalton Knecht was just 5-18 from the field, and I’ll bet he improves for the next game. I also like how the Vols matchup here on the defensive end. Aidoo can neturilize. Kalkbrenner. Knecht and Josiah-Jordan Games have length on the wing to match up with Baylor Scheierman. Meanwhile, Zakai Ziegler is pesky on the outside to limit Steven Ashworth’s open looks from three.
Yes, Oregon played its best basketball in March, but this is a team that was outside the top 100 in scoring offense (110) and defense (188) on the year, while Tennessee is inside the top 50 for both statistics. I think Creighton will have its hands full with Tennessee on both ends of the floor. I also don’t believe they will have a good matchup for Knecht, who could explode in this game after a tough night against Texas’ defense.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5 (-115)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: