Top 8 NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions: Round 1 (Friday)
The 2025 NCAA Tournament is officially here! The March Madness Bracket is set, and first-round NCAA Tournament matchups are in place. It’s time to make your picks and predictions for the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament! We’re here to help as we’ll have picks and predictions for each of the first-round 2025 NCAA Tournament games. Here are our top picks and predictions for Friday’s Round 1 action.
- 2025 NCAA Tournament Odds
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- 2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Optimizer
2025 NCAA Tournament Odds & Picks: Round 1 (Friday)
Let’s dive into our top picks and predictions for these Round 1 NCAA Tournament matchups.
2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: UConn vs. Oklahoma
The Connecticut Huskies are going for a three-peat. Only this time, the UConn Huskies are an eight-seed and didn't even play in the Big East Championship game this year. The Huskies still finished 23-10 on the season and have lots of potential. UConn won five straight games before losing to Creighton in the semifinals of the Big East Tournament. The offense hasn't been the issue for the Huskies. UConn has nailed 35.4% from deep and 57.3% from two-point range this season. While the Huskies might not get easy looks from three, Oklahoma has allowed teams to shoot nearly 55% from inside. The Huskies have the edge around the paint on offense. On the other hand, Oklahoma has the edge from downtown. The Sooners have drained 37% from downtown, while UConn has watched teams hit over 35% from three. Oklahoma will get quality looks from three and should be able to knock them down. In addition, the Huskies, like the Sooners, have sent teams to the foul line at a high rate. Oklahoma typically gets to the foul line at a very high rate and has hit over 79% from the stripe this season. Consider the Over 147.5.
2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: UConn vs. Oklahoma
2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Alabama vs. Robert Morris
Robert Morris has been one of the hottest teams in the country. The Colonials have won 16 of their last 17 games and are also on a 10-game winning streak after winning the Horizon League. They've added 35.3% of offensive rebounds and rank 41st in FTA/FGA ratio. Robert Morris has also knocked down nearly 35% from downtown and usually takes about 18.1 seconds per possession. On the other hand, opponents have used just 17.6 seconds per possession against Robert Morris. This checks out for Alabama. The Crimson Tide are one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation. They're also just as good on the offensive glass and get to the foul line at a super high rate. In addition, Alabama has dropped 59.7% from two-point range. At the end of the day, Alabama just allowed over 100 points to Florida in the SEC Tournament. They've allowed more than 100 points in multiple games this season. They've also scored 100+ points in various games this season. As long as Robert Morris doesn't have any early jitters, this game has the over written all over it.
2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Alabama vs. Robert Morris
2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Memphis vs. Colorado State
Colorado State is one of the hottest teams in the country. The Rams just won the Mountain West Conference Tournament and have won 10 straight games. It's an impressive turnaround for a team that was ranked outside the top 100 at KenPom back in December. Niko Medved's team is completely different now, and senior wing Nique Clifford has quickly risen up NBA Draft boards. Since the 10-game win streak began, Colorado State is the 8th-best team in the sport, according to BartTorvik. Memphis comes in hot as well, winning the American Athletic tournament and going 16-2 in conference play. However, the lack of real competition in the AAC has to be considered. Memphis could be without point guard Tyrese Hunter after he got hurt in the conference tournament. The Tigers also have two major weaknesses offensively, ranking 306th in offensive turnover rate and 250th in free-throw shooting percentage. Those are back-breakers against other quality teams like Colorado State, who just can't lose right now.
2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Memphis vs. Colorado State
2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt
The Vanderbilt Commodores finished the SEC with an 8-10 record and 20-12 overall record. Ultimately, Vanderbilt earned many intriguing Quad 1 wins, including those against Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri. But this team also lost three quad two games by double-digits. You get a mixed bag with the Commodores. Vanderbilt has allowed teams to shoot a 52.9% effective field goal percentage and has allowed teams to block them more than 11% of the time. On the other hand, Saint Mary's has done well limiting turnovers. They've also dominated the offensive glass, earning 40.5% of offensive rebounds per game. That'll be needed since the Gaels hit 32.6% from three and 51.8% from inside the arc. Still, against Vanderbilt, opponents have dropped 36.9% from downtown and have added a super high FTA/FGA ratio. St. Mary's has the edge.
2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Saint Mary’s vs. Vanderbilt
2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Maryland vs. Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon is starting to become a staple in the NCAA tournament. For the fourth time in five years, the Antelopes are dancing. They’re led once again by Tyson Grant-Foster, who dazzled in the tournament last year. But he won’t even be the main event in this matchup. Freshman standout Derik Queen is slated to go in the lottery of this year’s NBA draft. He leads a strong Maryland team that ranks top 30 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom. Grand Canyon will look to push the pace and try to attack the rim, but Maryland is more than comfortable playing that game. They held opponents to 47.6% from the field from inside the arch and had a strong defensive rebound rate. The Terrapins should force a lot of turnovers from a turnover-prone GCU and allow this talented Maryland team to win and cover.
2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Maryland vs. Grand Canyon
2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Kentucky vs. Troy
Off the bat, the Kentucky Wildcats expect Lamont Butler to be available for this game against Troy. Of course, Butler has experience in the NCAA Tournament during his time with the San Diego State Aztecs. He's currently the third-leading scorer on the Wildcats but left Thursday's game against Oklahoma early with an injury. That said, with or without Butler, the Wildcats are one of the best offenses in the nation. Kentucky has shot a 56% effective field goal percentage and has limited turnovers to 15.2%. Meanwhile, the Wildcats haven't been elite on the offensive glass, but that could change against Troy, as the Trojans have given up 32% of offensive rebounds. On the other hand, the Trojans are terrific on the offensive glass and usually see the foul line often. However, this isn't a great matchup for Troy. The Wildcats have kept teams to 25.9% of offensive rebounds per game this season. Plus, Troy has nailed only 30.3% from downtown, despite taking threes at a super-high rate. Kentucky has limited opponents to only 30.8% from deep this season. Therefore, take Kentucky to earn a win and cover against the Trojans.
2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Kentucky vs. Troy
2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Arizona vs. Akron
Arizona and Akron might not jump off the page as an exciting matchup but this is two of the fastest teams in the country. Both teams sit in the top 50 fastest in offensive possession length while both being strong shooting teams and offensive rebounders.
Arizona should have success at the rim with a size advantage and an excellent 55.1% clip on two-pointers. Meanwhile, Akron is a strong 3-point shooting teams who shoots 45.4% of their attempts from deep and make them at a 36.6% clip. Regardless of who wins this matchup it should be a fast-paced, high scoring affair.
2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Arizona vs. Akron
Over 166.5 Points (-110)
2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Michigan State vs. Bryant
Michigan State retooled and from 2024 and managed to run through the Big Ten. They do almost everything well on offense, except shoot from deep. At just 30.8% from deep on the season, they were one of the worst teams in the country.
However, in the month of March, Tom Izzo has found a spark from deep too and they’ve improved to 36.6% from 3-point land. Bryant is a strong team out of the American East, but the only team they played close to MSU’s prowess was St. John’s who won by 22.
Michigan State winning will be a formality here. They’re playing their best basketball in March again and are a real contender for the Final Four.
2025 NCAA Tournament Picks: Michigan State vs. Bryant
Check out all of our 2025 NCAA Tournament Bracket & Betting Coverage >>
2025 NCAA Tournament Sports Betting Picks
For those looking to place bets on the matchups, let's take a look at the early odds and picks for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
EAST REGION
- #8 Mississippi State vs. #9 Baylor
- #5 Oregon vs. #12 Liberty
- #4 Arizona vs. #13 Akron
- #6 BYU vs. #11 VCU
- #3 Wisconsin vs. #14 Montana
- #7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 Vanderbilt
- #2 Alabama vs. #15 Robert Morris
MIDWEST REGION
- #1 Houston vs. #16 SIU Edwardsville
- #8 Gonzaga vs. #9 Georgia
- #5 Clemson vs. #12 McNeese
- #4 Purdue vs. #13 High Point
- #3 Kentucky vs. #14 Troy
- #7 UCLA vs. #10 Utah State
- #2 Tennessee vs. #15 Wofford
SOUTH REGION
- #8 Louisville vs. #9 Creighton
- #5 Michigan vs. #12 UC San Diego
- #4 Texas A&M vs. #13 Yale
- #3 Iowa State vs. #14 Lipscomb
- #7 Marquette vs. #10 New Mexico
- #2 Michigan State vs. #15 Bryant
WEST REGION
- #1 Florida vs. #15 Norfolk State
- #8 UConn vs. #9 Oklahoma
- #5 Memphis vs. #12 Colorado State
- #4 Maryland vs. #13 Grand Canyon
- #6 Missouri vs. #11 Drake
- #3 Texas Tech vs. #14 UNCW
- #7 Kansas vs. #10 Arkansas
- #2 St. John’s vs. #15 Omaha
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