NCAA Tournament Survivor Guide for the Sweet 16 (Saturday)
In a year where four teams seeded No. 13 or lower won their first-round games for the first time in NCAA tournament history, you should be commended if you are still alive in your survivor pools as we enter the Sweet 16. As if getting to this point did not take much planning, now the real fun begins.
In the first round, one had 32 teams to choose from each day. For the next two days, there will be less than eight teams to choose from, given that some of the teams have already been utilized. Now is when survivor pool contestants have to master the trade of picking teams to advance, but not teams that will go too far so that there are still available selections once we get to the Final Four and beyond.
Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks: two from the First Round (one for each day played), two from the Second Round (one for each day played), and one from the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and National Championship.
As we did in the Round of 32, we rank all eight games in order of most confidence to least confidence and provide a short narrative for each.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their Sweet 16 matchups on Saturday (odds courtesy of BettingPros consensus).
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Best Picks in Order of Most-to-Least Confidence
Arkansas -625
The Razorbacks are the perfect survivor pool play for Saturday's Sweet 16 action. Arkansas should prove to be too talented for the Cinderella Oral Roberts squad. And assuming Baylor beats Villanova, Arkansas will be underdogs, which should be the last opportunity to get a win out of them. Though Oral Roberts has looked impressive in wins over Ohio State and Florida, there is a reason that no No. 15 seed has ever made an Elite Eight. The Razorbacks have won 11 of their last 12 games, with the only slip-up coming against LSU in the SEC tournament. The Razorbacks defeated four tournament teams (Missouri, Florida, Alabama, LSU) in that span to end the regular season. Arkansas held Texas Tech leading scorer Mac McClung to just nine points on 1-for-6 shooting. Their ability to employ a similar strategy to slow down Oral Roberts' Max Abmas, the nation's leading scorer, will be a key to a big Arkansas victory.
Loyola Chicago -315
Loyola Chicago dominated Illinois from start to finish in the Round of 32, ending the season of one of the biggest favorites to win the national championship. Now they face an Oregon State team that was picked to finish last in the PAC-12 preseason poll. Taking nothing away from what Oregon State has accomplished this year, Loyola Chicago's tournament experience will be the difference. MVC Player of the Year Cameron Krutwig has played in a Final Four, and this year's Ramblers team looks determined to get back there again. Look for Loyola Chicago to limit Oregon State's leading scorer, Ethan Thompson. The only reason the Ramblers are second in our confidence list is that they are more likely to win their next game against the Syracuse-Houston winner, so saving them as a future option is the wiser choice.
Baylor -315
Baylor's moneyline odds of -315 are generous considering how shorthanded Villanova is. Though Villanova started the year ranked No. 3 in the AP Poll, the Wildcats are not nearly as dangerous as they could be if they had a healthy Collin Gillespie. The Bears have four of the best one-on-one defenders in the country and should be able to limit Jay Wright's team's ability to connect consistently from deep. However, it is best to save Baylor for future rounds as an appearance in the national championship game looks more and more likely.
Houston -275
Not only are the Houston Cougars our least confident play, but the No. 2 seed from the Midwest region is on upset alert. Syracuse is looking to get back to the Final Four as a double-digit seed, just as they did in 2016. Their vaunted 2-3 zone is challenging to prepare for, especially considering not many teams face a zone as long as theirs at any point in the season. Houston is an average three-point shooting team, connecting on 35.2% of their attempts (ranks 99th in the country) this season. With as successful as Syracuse has been in recent tournaments, this is a game to stay far away from.
Find out our best bets for Saturday’s Sweet 16 matchups >>
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.