In a year where four teams seeded No. 13 or lower won their first-round games for the first time in NCAA tournament history, you should be commended if you are still alive in your survivor pools as we enter the Sweet 16. As if getting to this point did not take much planning, now the real fun begins.
In the first round, one had 32 teams to choose from each day. This weekend, there will be less than eight teams to choose from, given that some of the teams have already been utilized. Now is when survivor pool contestants have to master the trade of picking teams to advance, but not teams that will go too far so that there are still available selections once we get to the Final Four and beyond.
Throughout the tournament, one has to make eight picks: two from the First Round (one for each day played), two from the Second Round (one for each day played), and one from the Sweet 16, Elite 8, Final Four, and National Championship.
As we did in the Round of 32, we rank all eight games in order of most confidence to least confidence and provide a short narrative for each.
Here is a list of odds for all the favorites to win their Sweet 16 matchups on Sunday (odds courtesy of BettingPros consensus).
Bet $5, Win $150 on a Team to Win Their Sweet 16 Game >>
Best Picks in Order of Most-to-Least Confidence
Gonzaga -1088
While Gonzaga is the team most likely to win, they should not be the team you pick. The Bulldogs have shown no signs of slowing down and appear as sure a bet of any team in the country of making a Final Four appearance and beyond. If they make the national championship game, you do not want to be stuck without them left to pick. You also do not want to select against them with a team from the other side of the bracket. To give you a sense of how highly thought of Gonzaga is at the moment, their 13.5 point spread over Creighton makes them the biggest Sweet 16 favorite since Kentucky in 2015. The Wildcats ended up dominating West Virginia 78-39 as 13.5 point favorites that year.
Alabama -250
While we advise saving Gonzaga for future use, and with the other two favorites on upset alert, Alabama is the no-brainer survivor pick of the day. UCLA has gotten hot and enjoyed a nice run from the First Four to the Sweet 16, like many other “play-in game” winners have before them. But this Alabama team is coming off one of the season’s best offensive performances and has the defense necessary to limit UCLA’s efficient offense. The Crimson Tide scored 96 points on a Maryland team that held five of their prior seven opponents to 60 points or fewer. Since Alabama is on the same side of the bracket as Gonzaga, their shelf life in this tournament is projected to be limited. Also, if Michigan beats Florida State, this is likely the last time the Crimson Tide will be favored in a game.
Michigan -155
One No. 1 seed is already out of the tournament as Illinois lost to Loyola Chicago in the Round of 32. If Michigan is not careful, they may become the second No. 1 seed to be eliminated. Florida State has the depth, length, and toughness to compete with the Wolverines for 40 minutes. Leonard Hamilton's teams thrive in the underdog role, as the Seminoles are 7-2 ATS with five SU wins as underdogs in the Big Dance. In addition, other historical trends suggest Michigan is vulnerable. 14 No.1 seeds have been favored by three or fewer points or were outright underdogs in the Sweet 16. Five of those 14 games went to overtime, and 11 of those games were decided by five points or less. In those 14 games, No. 1 seeds are 9-5 SU, so those are odds I would not want to tempt with a safer pick of Alabama available.
USC -125
Oregon and USC met at USC on February 22nd, a game the Trojans won 72-58. Despite that convincing victory, the Ducks should be thought of as a formidable opponent capable of upsetting USC. One reason for liking Oregon’s chances is head coach Dana Altman’s tournament success. Since becoming the Oregon head coach, the Ducks are 14-6 in the NCAA Tournament and play in their fifth Sweet 16. One of the only reasons Oregon is a No. 7 seed is that they lost consecutive games in late January and early February after a two-week COVID-19 pause. They also dealt with injuries to Chris Duarte, and Will Richardson did not join the team until February 4th. Lastly, the Ducks lost the two games in which St. John’s transfer LJ Figueroa did not play. When Oregon is fully healthy, they are as dangerous as anyone.
Find out our best bets for Sunday’s Sweet 16 matchups >>
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Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
