Top NCAA Tournament Trends & Stats For Every Team (2024 March Madness)

by Ryan Coleman |
Mar 20, 2024

After some wild conference tournaments, we have finally made it to March Madness. â€œThe Big Danceâ€ is truly one of the greatest times of the year with the Round of 64 and Round of 32 games arguably one of the best four days in sports.

BettingPros has everything covered, from game-by-game previews to bracket predictions. Today, we will break down team-by-team betting trends, stats and interesting nuggets to give you angles for all your gambling and bracket-filling needs.

I didn't just want to highlight mainstream ATS or over/under trends. Instead, I want to share interesting facts discovered when deep-diving into these teams.

Shoutout to Stats By Will, TeamRanking, KenPom and EvanMiya, all quite useful resources for this analysis and all College Basketball research.

Let's get to it.

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Team-by-Team Trends & Stats: 2024 NCAA Tournament

First Four Games

No. 16 Wagner vs. No. 16 Howard

Wagner

The Seahawks are the second-slowest tempo team in the tournament, with only Virginia ranking slower.
Wagner has the single worst KenPom-adjusted offensive efficiency in the tournament, ranking 334th.
Wagner has allowed 57 or fewer points in each of its last four games (Howardâ€™s points total is 65.5).

Howard

The Bison own the second-worst adjusted defense in the tournament, only ahead of Stetson.
Each of Howard's last 11 games has produced a total of over 135 points.

No. 10 Colorado State vs. 10 Virginia

Colorado State

CSU has won 12 of its last 13 non-conference games.
The Rams went 8-3 ATS in non-conference games and 4-2 ATS on neutral courts.
Each of Colorado State's last 10 games has produced a total of over 126 points.

Virginia

The Cavaliers once again have the slowest pace of play in the league.
Virginia is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, ranking 355th with a 63.7 percent clip from the charity stripe.
Despite their slow pace, Virginia had an O/U record of 15-18 this year.

No. 16 Grambling State vs. No. 16 Montana State

Grambling State

The Tigers have won nine of their last 10 games.
Grambling State had one of the more difficult non-conference schedules, with the fourth-highest non-con SOS.

Montana State

The Bobcats are the only team in the field without a winning record.
Montana State has made five tournaments and has gone 0-5 in the Big Dance.

No. 10 Colorado vs. No. 10 Boise State

Colorado

Each of Colorado's last seven games in non-conference play has produced totals above 148, scoring 83-plus points in each of their last six.
The Buffs have three potential first-round NBA picks on their squad, who have not all been healthy throughout the season.
The first-half ML has cashed in 10 of Colorado's last 11 games against non-con opponents.
The Buffs have never reached the Sweet 16 since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Boise State

Outside of scoring stats, opponentsâ€™ offensive rebounding percentage numbers are the biggest correlator to the Broncosâ€™ success. Colorado is the 11th-tallest team in the league.
The Broncos are 0-9 all-time in the NCAA Tournament.

East Region

No. 1 UConn vs. No. 16 Stetson

UConn

After winning it all last year, UConn once again finds themselves as the title favorite at around +400.
Connecticut has won the first half in each of its last 12 neutral games.
The Huskies have the fourth-best ATS record among tournament teams at 22-12.
UConn, around a 26.5-point favorite over Stetson, is the 14th-largest spread for a Round of 64 game.
The Huskies are picked to win it all in roughly 32% of brackets despite being given a 23% chance of doing so via EvanMiya.

Stetson

The Hatters have scored 59-plus points in 14 of their last 14 games.
Each of Stetson's last seven non-con games has gone over a total of 147 points.
Stetson ranks sixth-highest among all DI teams in KenPom's luck metric.

No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Northwestern

Florida Atlantic

In case you forgot, Florida Atlantic made it to the Final Four last year. Their 82% minutes continuity from last year is the highest among Division I teams.
Florida Atlantic is 9-4 ATS in non-conference play and 6-3 ATS in neutral court games.

Northwestern

Against opponents that prefer the perimeter look, the Wildcats perform above their norm 87% of the time.
Underdogs in the 8-9 matchup are 41-28-2 ATS since 2005.
The Wildcats are one of the most injured teams in the tournament. Ty Berry is out, and Matthew Nicholson is questionable until late March.
Chris Collins' squad went 4-5-2 ATS in non-conference games.

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 UAB

San Diego State

SDSU went 4-7 ATS in non-conference play.
If you're looking for some fun bets, each of SDSU's last two games against non-conference opponents on neutral courts have gone into overtime.
Their 13-19 ATS record this season is the third-worst among tournament teams.
With an 80% chance to win, SDSU has the seventh-highest Round of 64 odds on record for any five seed. When five seeds have a 77% or above to win, they have gone 11-2 since 2002.

UAB

UAB has scored at least 66 points in 27 straight games
The Blazers went a clean 5-0 ATS in neutral court games this year.
UAB went 11-2 ATS as an underdog this year.

No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Yale

Auburn

Auburn is 14-1 in the first half in 14 of its last 15 non-conference games.
Four seeds with an 84% chance of winning or higher are a perfect 12-0 since 2002; Auburn's chances are 87.5%.
Auburn ranks fourth overall in KenPom.

Yale

The Bulldogs are 0-10 in their last 10 games against AP-ranked opponents

No. 6 BYU vs. No. 11 Duquesne

BYU

The Cougars are 11-2 ATS in non-conference games this year, the single-best such ATS record among tournament teams.
BYU owns the third-best odds in history for a six to beat an 11, per Will Warren.

Duquesne

The Dukes have allowed over 72 points in each of its last 11 day-time games
Duquesne has won the first half in its last six games.

No. 3 Illinois vs. No.14 Morehead State

Illinois

The Fighting Illini went 4-1 ATS on neutral court games and 5-4-2 ATS in non-conference games
The Illini went 4-1 ATS as underdogs on the season.
Three-seeds with an 87% chance or higher to win their first-round game per KenPom are 25-1 all-time.

Morehead State

Morehead State went 6-3 ATS in non-conference games

No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Drake

Washington State

The Cougars are the tallest team in the tournament.

Drake

The Bulldogs are the best defensive rebounding team in the tournament and DI.
Drake has scored 72-plus points in 11 straight games.
Darian DeVriesâ€™s squad went 3-7 ATS in non-conference games but 5-2 ATS in neutral-court matchups.
Drake went 3-1 ATS as underdogs this year.
The Bulldogs will only be playing a two-hour drive away from their campus.

No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 South Dakota State

Iowa State

The Cyclones have the single-best ATS record at 23-10-1 among all tournament teams.
They went 17-8 ATS as a favorite.
They have the third-worst adjusted offense ever for a two-seed.

South Dakota State

Each of SDSU's last eight games against Big 12 Conference opponents has resulted in the total going over 139 points

West Region

No. 1 UNC vs. TBD

UNC

UNC has one of the lowest shooting ceilings in the nation and a 24th-ranked offense.
There have been 13 one-seeds with a sub-20th offense, and only two of them have made the Final Four, with four of them losing before the Sweet 16

No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Michigan State

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs have won each of its last seven games against non-AP-ranked opponents on a neutral court.
Mississippi State is 9-0 ATS in neutral games this year.
Underdogs in the 8-9 matchup are 41-28-2 ATS since 2005.

Michigan State

Each of their last six non-conference games has resulted in a total of over 141 points.
The Spartans have won the first half in seven of their last eight non-con games.

No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 Grand Canyon

Saint Mary's

Per EvanMiya, SMU ranks third in the nation in negative opponent adjust, meaning it excels at beating teams ranked below it.
The Gaels went 4-0 ATS as underdogs this year.
Saint Mary's is 21-1 in the first half of their last 22 games against non-AP ranked opponents
Roughly 34% of bracket-fillers have picked Saint Mary's to make the Sweet 16. Bart Torvik gives them a 45% chance to do so.

Grand Canyon

Each of Grand Canyon's last 15 non-con games has resulted in the point total reaching at least 133.

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 13 Charleston

Alabama

The Crimson Tide ranks second in offensive efficiency in the field, only behind UConn.
Nate Oats' squad went 15-9 ATS as a favorite this season.
The total of 173.5 is the highest March Madness total since 1995.

Charleston

The College of Charleston has lost each of its last 14 games against AP-ranked opponents
They have allowed no more than 90 points in 67 straight games.
Charleston went 2-5 ATS in neutral court games this year.

No. 6 Clemson vs. No. 11 New Mexico

Clemson

The Tigers went 6-1 ATS as underdogs this year.

New Mexico

The Aztecs went 19-7 ATS as a favorite on the season.
New Mexico is 8-0 ATS in neutral games this year.
They have the third-best overall ATS record at 23-11 among tournament teams.
As noted on Twitter, there have been 11 times where an 11-seed closed a favorite over a six. Eleven seeds are 10-1 SU in those games.

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Colgate

Baylor

Six straight games against non-con opponents on neutral venues have resulted in a total of 148-plus points.
Three-seeds with an 87% chance or higher to win their first-round game per KenPom are 25-1 all-time.

Colgate

The Raiders have allowed no more than 73 points in 21 straight games.

No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Nevada

Dayton

Despite ranking 32nd in KenPom on the season, the Flyers rank 65th overall since Feb. 1 with a sub-150 ranked defense.
Dayton has won each of its last eight day-time games

Nevada

The Wolfpack has scored 69-plus points in 12 straight games.
The total has gotten to 140-plus points in six straight Nevada games.
NEvada owns the fourth-highest ATS record at 21-11 among tournament teams.

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15. Long Beach State

Arizona

The Wildcats are a perfect 5-0 against Long Beach State since 2010
The Wildcats are 12-0 in their last 12 games in the first half against non-AP ranked opponents at a neutral venue.
Arizona is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games and 19-12 ATS as a favorite.

Long Beach State

The Beach has lost 30 straight games against AP-ranked opponents

South Region

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Longwood

Houston

The Cougars went an even 16-16-2 ATS as a favorite this year.

Longwood

The Lancers have scored 53-plus points in 53 straight games against non-conference opponents.
Longwood actually ranked third in overall shot volume this year.

No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Texas A&M

Nebraska

Nebraska went 15-4 ATS as a favorite this year.
Since Feb. 1, Nebraska has been ranked ninth overall in efficiency and third in defensive efficiency.

Texas A&M

The Aggies have the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the country, snagging 42% of their misses.

No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 James Madison

Wisconsin

In the Badgers' last 13 games against non-AP ranked opponents at a neutral venue, the total has reached at least 143.

James Madison

The Dukes have the nation's longest active winning streak at 13 and have won the most games in Division I with 31.
Their three-point defense is the best in the tournament, limiting opponents to a sub-29% shooting this year.
James Madison has scored 73-plus points in 15 straight games.

No. 4 Duke vs. No. 13 Vermont

Duke

No team has won the NCAA Tournament after losing their first conference tournament matchup.
Each of Duke's last 11 non-conference games has produced a total of 136-plus points.
The Blue Devils are 12-1 in the first half of their last 13 games against non-AP ranked opponents.
Four seeds with a projected shot volume edge of plus-five or better are 20-3 over 13 seeds.
Duke went 2-7 in games decided by six points or less this year.

Vermont

The Catamounts have scored 61-plus points in 33 straight night games.

No. 6 Texas Tech vs. No. 11 NC State

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders are 14-1 in their last 15 games against non-con opponents.

NC State

The Wolfpack are 9-6-1 ATS as underdogs this year and 5-3 ATS in neutral court games.

No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Oakland

Kentucky

UK went 6-1 ATS as underdogs this year and are 12-13 ATS as favorites.
Currently, an average of 70% of brackets have Kentucky reaching the Sweet 16, despite a 51% chance of doing so, per KenPom.
Ranking 106th in defensive efficiency, it would be the worst defensive 1-4 seed ever to make the Final Four.

Oakland

Oakland went 9-3 ATS as underdogs this year.
There have been 41 14-seeds ranked outside the KenPom top 100 to make the NCAA Tournament. Only two have ever won a game.

No. 7 Florida vs. TBD

Florida

Florida is the fourth-ranked team in terms of Shot Volume in the tournament, per Will Warren.
The Gators ranked 29th in consistency metrics, per Haslametrics.
Florida ranks sixth in EvanMiya's opponent adjust rankings, playing up to superior opponents.

No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Western Kentucky

Marquette

Tyler Kolek's status is arguably the biggest injury news in this tournament. He is the eighth-best player, per EvanMiya's metrics.
The Golden Eagles' rebound rate is the second-worst rate ever posted by a two-seed.

Western Kentucky

WKU is the single fastest-paced team in DI this year.
The Hilltoppers rank 310th in the percentage of points from beyond the arc.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue vs. TBD

Purdue

Purdue went 7-2-2 ATS in non-conference games this year.
The odds of every one seed making the Sweet Sixteen, per EvanMiya, are 32%.

No. 8 Utah State vs. No. 9 TCU

Utah State

The Aggies went 1-5 ATS as an underdog this year.
Utah State is 11-0 in its last 11 non-con games
Underdogs in the 8-9 matchup are 41-28-2 ATS since 2005.

TCU

TCU went 14-10 as a favorite this season.
The Horned Frogs have scored 79-plus points in nine consecutive non-con games.
KenPom favorites in 8/9 games since 2002 are 46-38.

No. 5 Gonzaga vs. No. 12 McNeese

Gonzaga

Gonzaga is 13-14 ATS as a favorite this season.
The Bulldogs have won 21 straight games against non-AP-ranked opponents on a neutral court.

McNeese:

Will Wade's squad went 7-2 ATS in non-conference games.
The Cowboys have allowed no more than 77 points in 24 straight games.

No. 4 Kansas vs. No. 13 Samford

Kansas

Even before sustained injuries, Kansas ranks outside the top 300 in bench minutes.
The Jayhawks are 1-4 in their last five games.
They are 11-14-1 ATS as a favorite this year and 2-4 ATS in neutral court games.
The Jayhawks have not lost a Round of 64 game since 2006.

Samford

Samford won the first half in 12 straight non-con games.

No. 6 South Carolina vs. No. 11 Oregon

South Carolina

Per KenPom, South Carolina would be an underdog to every at-large team in the tournament besides Virginia.
The Gamecocks have won 15 straight first halves against non-con opponents.
South Carolina is the fourth-slowest team in the tournament in terms of pace.
They own a 337th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule.
Went 23-10 ATS this year, the second-best record ATS in the tournament.
South Carolina is ranked as the luckiest team in the tournament, per KenPom.

Oregon

This team has dealt with the highest number of injuries all season, per EvanMiya. Star player N'Faly Dante missed the first half of the season before playing the final 19 games.
The Ducks have allowed 67-plus points in eight straight non-con games on a neutral court.
Oregon is 7-3 as an underdog this year.
When 11 seeds have a projected shot volume edge, as the Ducks do, they are 10-4 in first-round games.
Dana Altman has been 15-6-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2005.

No. 3 Creighton vs. No. 14 Akron

Creighton

Creighton depends on the perimeter shot at the third-highest clip in the tournament, with nearly 40% of their points coming from beyond the arc.
The Blue Jays are 7-1 in their last eight day -timegames
Creighton has won the first half in four straight NCAA Tournament games.

Akron

Akron is 3-5-1 ATS as an underdog
The Zips have allowed 76 or fewer points in 22 of their last 23 games.
John Groce is 7-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.

No. 7 Texas vs. TBD

Texas

Texas is the second-most experienced team in the tournament, only behind TCU.
The Longhorns went 7-14 ATS as a favorite this year.
Since the Final Four VCU run, Shaka Smart has not made the Sweet 16 in nine straight tournaments.

No 2. Tennessee vs. No. 15 Saint Peter's

Tennessee

Rick Barnes is 9-21 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since 2005.
Seven of the Volunteersâ€™ last eight games have hit the under.
They Went 1-4 ATS in neutral court games this year.
No team has ever won the NCAA Tournament after losing their first game in conference tournament play.

Saint Peter's

Saint Peterâ€™s went 3-0 ATS in neutral games.

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