NCAA Tournament: Which Conference Will Champion Come From? (2024 March Madness)
The bracket was revealed on Sunday and March Madness has swept the nation. It can be overwhelming trying to crack the code of the perfect bracket. How can you be sure you're making the right picks in such an unpredictable tournament?
There is no tried-and-true way to predict the winner, short of being a clairvoyant. However, there are a few characteristics shared among previous winners that we can use as an indicator of whether a team, or in this case, conference, has what it takes to raise a banner at the end of this three-week journey. Let's take a look at which conference has what it takes to field a national champion.
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What Conference Will the Champion Come From?
Clock Strikes Midnight By April
The NCAA basketball tournament is defined by its Cinderellas: St. Peter's, Oral Roberts, FCGU, VCU, Butler, George Mason, the list goes on. These teams are often more memorable than the team that won the championship in those particular seasons. The Cinderella story is what makes this the best sporting event every year. However, if you go back and look at past winners, you're better off focusing on those top four seed lines. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, teams outside the top four seeds have won the tournament just three times and only twice since 1989.
Slow and Steady Wins the Race
For a quarter century now, Ken Pomeroy has released his efficiency rankings. Using a proprietary formula that takes into account offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and tempo, he's fundamentally changed the way bettors and casual fans look at college basketball.
One trend that we've seen since the early 2010's, correlating with the One-and-Done era, is that teams outside the top 90 in tempo tend to have success in March. Teams that can slow down the pace and dictate how they want to play have found a ton of success. In the last 13 tournaments, 11 winners were ranked 90th or lower in KenPom adjusted tempo.
Offense is King
The old adage in sports is "defense wins championships." Obviously a dreadful defense isn't going to get you very far in the NCAA tournament, but an elite offense has actually been a key characteristic of winners in this event. I'm not speaking specifically on high flying, high scoring offenses though; efficiency is key, as a slower tempo is preferred.
KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency indicates that being outside the top 25 in this metric likely won't win you a championship. Only once since Pomeroy started publishing this data in 2000 has a team outside the to 25 in AdjO won a national championship.
Pick: Big East
There are only seven teams heading into the tournament that fit into these three characteristics, hailing from the ACC, Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten. But only one of them has three teams with that championship fingerprint, including the top-seeded defending-champions UConn, as well as Creighton and Marquette.
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