NCAA Tournament: Which Conference Will the Champion Come From? (2025 March Madness)

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It's the most wonderful time of the year. The NCAA Tournament bracket has been released and everyone is trying to figure out the best bracket to win their pool. With so many teams in the tournament, it can feel impossible to keep track of every team (especially in this NIL and transfer era).

Let us help you narrow down your picks by conference to determine which one is most likely to produce the National Champion.

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NCAA Tournament: Conference Champion Predictions & Picks

Mid-Majors

Let's start here. It's not happening. Sure schools like Butler, Gonzaga and San Diego State have made it to championship Monday in the last 15 years but they haven't come close to winning the whole thing since 2010. Although there are plenty of Mid-Major teams that could make noise as a Cinderella team like UC San Diego, New Mexico or St. Mary's, it's unlikely this year.

Big Ten

The Big Ten expanded to 18 teams in the 2024-25 season. The hope is they can snap their 25-year drought. Michigan State won the regular season and has the tenacity of a typical Tom Izzo team. The concern with them is they were a bad three-point shooting team. If they find themselves down late, can they answer back quickly?

Purdue is a strong offensive team but they struggled mightily down the stretch. Michigan won the conference tournament but can't take care of the ball or gather defensive rebounds. Wisconsin is the conference's best bet but as a No. 3 seed, they'd have to go through Alabama and Duke to do so.

Big East

The Big East produced the last two champions (both UConn) but don't expect them to add a third. UConn had a disappointing season, by their recent standards, and enter the tournament as a No. 8 seed.

St. John's is the conference's best bet with legendary coach Rick Pitino at the helm. They're an excellent defensive team that ranked first in KenPom's efficiency rankings, but the offense struggles to shoot threes (30.5%) and free throws (68.9%). That's a recipe for disaster for a deep tournament run.

ACC

Make no mistake, Duke is one of the few teams in the country that can win this whole tournament. But you're putting the fate of the conference on the health of Cooper Flagg's ankle. No one else in the conference has a shot at winning this thing. Duke has as good of a chance to win as any team, but with the whole conference's chances on his shoulders, I'd look elsewhere.

Big 12

In a bit of a stunner, the Big 12 looks like a conference to beat this season. Historically, the champion will be a top-four seed, rank in the top 25 in KenPom's offensive efficiency and run at a tempo ranked 90th or lower in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric.

Based on these criteria, the expanded Big 12 has three teams that could win the National Championship. Houston, Texas Tech and Iowa State could all hoist the hardware on that Monday in April. But Iowa State will be without Keshon Gilbert for the tournament. Houston's two-point shooting percentage and reliance on threes is concerning. Texas Tech is a strong team but have they been battle-tested in a setting like this? There are real concerns about these Big 12 contenders.

SEC

Considered the best conference in the country, the SEC produced 14 tournament teams with six schools earning top-four seeds. If you look at typical characteristics of championship teams, only two of those six meet the criteria. This leaves Tennessee and Auburn. But teams like Florida (59th in tempo), Missouri (No. 6 seed) and Texas A&M (44th in offensive rating) are all right on the outside of this criteria and could buck common trends.

All of these are complete teams and are more than capable of winning a National Championship. With so many teams capable, there is no conference with a better chance to have the confetti fall when it's all said and done.