NCAAB College Basketball – Rankings and Betting Advice (3/2)

Hello and welcome to March! While March 2020 seems just like yesterday, it feels forever ago that Virginia took down the NCAAB crown in 2019. As we grow closer and closer to the tournament, I will be here to provide the necessary weekly updates on teams trending up and down and what future values are offered as a result. I will also be covering any important storylines along with a Cinderella watch. Be sure to check out my latest bracketology article, and be on the lookout for a new one this week. You can always find the latest betting odds and power rankings here.

You can always find the latest betting odds and power rankings here >>

Quick Hits

• Who’s the Fourth Best Team?: While Baylor fell this past weekend to Kansas, Gonzaga, Michigan, and Baylor remain as the Big Three…so who’s number four? It may seem like a fruitless consideration, but it will have important implications come tourney time. Ranking fourth means receiving the fourth number one seed, thus avoiding the Big Three until the Final Four at the earliest. There is clutter in this second tier of teams, or third-tier if you consider Gonzaga in a tier of their own. Iowa, Ohio State, Houston, Illinois, and Alabama are all up for consideration. Ohio State has lost three straight, and Alabama hasn’t had a good win in a while. My vote goes to Illinois, but it is an incredibly close toss-up between them and Iowa. Whoever earns that fourth one-seed should garner good value to win it all, as I expect most of the attention and money to focus on the aforementioned Big Three come tourney time.
• Oh No Nova: While you shouldn’t judge a team by a single win or loss, Villanova’s defeat vs. Butler is a bad, bad loss. On the surface, it just looks like a simple upset, but this is not a normal Butler team. The Bulldogs are 9-13 and ranked 110th in KenPom. It goes down as a Quad II loss and highlights Villanova’s weakness – their dependency on the three-ball. Obviously, going 2-for-27 from downtown is not sustainable, but three of their four losses have come when they shot under 32% from three. Come tourney time, be wary of Nova, as they can get cold anytime and fall early in the tournament. 
• Conference Tournament Time: By the end of this weekend, we will know the first teams to have punched their ticket to the Big Dance. Most of the championship games will be streamed on popular networks, so this is a good way to get a step ahead of the rest of the field by learning about these teams now. When they are slotted into their bracket positions, it will be easier to determine upset potential.  

Trending Up

• Arkansas (+6000 on DraftKings): The Razorbacks are riding a six-game win streak and have looked quite impressive during it, cruising by Florida, Alabama, and LSU. Arkansas finishes the regular season off easy with South Carolina and Texas A&M, so if you’re looking to buy stock, do now. I see the SEC tournament as a battle between them and Alabama.
• Purdue (+8000 on FOXBet): Despite a 16-8 record, Purdue ranks 13th in KenPom and has only lost three of their last 12 games, including wins over Ohio State and Indiana. They wrap up the season with Wisconsin and Indiana. The Boilermakers are quite capable of earning the double-bye for the Big Ten tourney, and if they do, I will buy stock. I could only imagine them improving their seeding from then on.  
• Georgia Tech (+20000 on DraftKings): One of my darkhorse picks before the season, Georgia Tech has been flying under the radar, riding a four-game win streak. Currently, the Yellow Jackets are right on the bubble, but a win over Duke on Tuesday could push them over the edge into the field of 68. 

Trending Down

• Ohio State (+2800 on bet365): After an impressive seven-game win streak, the Buckeyes have done a complete 180, losing their past three games. They have the week off until finishing the regular season vs. Illinois Saturday, a chance to right the ship before the Big Ten tourney.    
• Virginia (+6600 on FOXBet): After seeming like the clear-cut favorite to take down the ACC crown, the Cavaliers have dropped three of their last four games, including a rough loss to N.C. State. Virginia finishes the season off against Louisville and, with the ACC not being as strong this year, have the opportunity to improve their seeding before the tournament.   

Cinderella Watch 

These are teams most likely to be 12-14 seeds, mostly from mid-major conferences, that have a good chance of making it to the second weekend and beyond. Come tourney time, they should absolutely be on your radar. So far, I have briefly covered Belmont, Winthrop, Wright State, Western Kentucky, and UC Santa Barbara. I will be providing a much more detailed Cinderella Watch article once the bracket is released as well. 

• Colgate (+50000 on BetMGM): If you’ve been following college basketball this season, you have probably already heard of Colgate for their top-10 NET ranking. If you haven’t, don’t worry. Let me give you the rundown. Colgate is 11-1, with their only loss coming early in the season, falling 75-73 to Army on January 3rd. The Raiders rank in the top-10 in both offensive and defensive eFG%, and their three-point defense is elite, like best in the country elite. If Colgate faces off against a team that is more dependant on the three-ball, such as Villanova, in the first round, watch out for an early upset. 
• Toledo (+50000 on BetMGM): Toledo has played well enough to have a good shot at a 12-seed. If that’s the case, they can easily upset their first-round opponent. The Rockets hold four wins over top-100 teams and rank 53rd in KenPom. Their top-15 offense and dangerous shooting from beyond-the-arc makes them a legitimate tournament threat.

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.