New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Odds & Game Pick (2021)

The marquee matchup of Week 13 occurs on Monday night, when the red-hot New England Patriots travel to Buffalo for a battle for first place in the AFC East.

The sentiments regarding these teams have gone in drastically opposite directions since the beginning of the season. The Patriots went from a lowly-regarded team led by a rookie quarterback to one of the most popular picks to win a wide open AFC. Meanwhile, the Bills have not exactly lived up to their lofty expectations, and are actually sitting in second place behind the Pats.

Will the Patriots continue to impress us? Or can Buffalo make a statement? Let’s break down this huge AFC East showdown.

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Details 

• Opening line: Buffalo -3.5
• Current line: Buffalo -2.5
• Total: 42.5

Where did New England come from? 

The Patriots have been an incredible surprise this season in what’s easily Bill Belichick’s best coaching job since the early 2000’s.

New England’s roster isn’t loaded with stars, yet the Patriots are currently ranked as the second best team in the NFL according to DVOA. They also have 7.9 expected wins, according to FootballOutsiders.com, thus proving that this team isn’t getting lucky, it’s damn good.

Offensively, New England ranks 11th in passing DVOA and ninth in rushing DVOA while starting rookie QB Mac Jones through the entirety of the season. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has done a tremendous job developing gameplans that protect Jones from adverse down-and-distance situations. This team is built to control games on the ground and maintain possession. The Patriots rank 10th in the NFL with an average drive time of 2:55.

However, there are some questions that still need to be answered. First off, New England has benefited from the 25th-toughest schedule for opposing offenses, per FootballOutsiders.com. That’s led to a ton of positive game scripts for Jones. And while he deserves all of the credit for properly executing what’s been asked of him, New England hasn’t needed to ask much of him.

Jones is averaging 5.4 completed air yards per completion, which ranks 27th among all quarterbacks. In other words, Jones isn’t pushing the ball downfield often because the Patriots have done a great job of staying ahead of the chains.

That could change against a Bills defense that’s arguably the best in the NFL. DVOA seems to think so, ranking Buffalo first in defensive DVOA.

Defensively, Belichick has worked his magic once again. The Patriots field the second-best defense in the NFL, per DVOA. Belichick’s bunch ranks top 10 in both passing and rushing defense DVOA. I imagine Belichick will play a ton of Cover 2 against Buffalo’s explosive passing game. The Pats will probably beg Buffalo to run the ball and beat them by staging long drives.

What’s Buffalo made of? 

The Bills were among the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this year. And while they’re still regarded as the third-best team in the NFL, according to DVOA, something has felt off since their bye week. In between wins over Miami, the Jets and New Orleans, was a horrible loss to Jacksonville and a blowout loss at home to Indianapolis.

Buffalo is getting what I like to call “the Chiefs treatment,” on offense. Defenses are simply dropping two safeties back to prevent big plays and inviting Buffalo to beat them by running the ball and avoiding turnovers. But unlike the Chiefs, the Bills have struggled to adjust.

Buffalo ranks just 16th in offensive DVOA and Allen has become a turnover machine over the last month, throwing seven interceptions in his last four outings.

The problem is Buffalo has been too slow to embrace their running game despite some pretty good underlying metrics. For instance, Buffalo ranks 10th in the league in adjusted line yards and is actually seventh with 4.6 yards per attempt. The Bills actually can run the ball.

On Thanksgiving, Buffalo finally realized it. The Bills ran 32 times for 113 yards against a good Saints front seven. While that’s not prolific, it had a trickle down effect. Buffalo held the ball for more than 34 minutes, went 8-of-13 on third down and put up 31 points in an easy win.

The key for Buffalo in this game will be to commit to their ground game and protect the football. Belichick has mostly had Allen’s number in his five starts against the Patriots. Allen is 2-3 in those starts, has completed just 56.4% of his passes, has thrown for more than 300 yards in just one game and has tossed seven touchdowns to six interceptions.

Defensively, Buffalo will have to overcome the loss of shutdown cornerback Tre’Davious White. However, White’s absence might not hurt the Bills too much in this game, as New England doesn’t have a star receiver to worry about.

Where Buffalo needs to win this game is in the trenches. The Bills rank fourth in rush defense DVOA, are fourth in defensive adjusted line yards and are third in stuff rate. Winning at the line of scrimmage and forcing New England into plenty of third-and-long situations will be critical.

Bottom Line 

This should be an excellent cap to Week 13. I’m expecting plenty of intensity, but not a ton of scoring.

Belichick is Belichick, so he’ll have a plan for slowing this Bills offense down. On the flip side, Buffalo has the talent up front to shut down New England’s running game and force Jones to make plays on third down and long.

While New England is 5-0 on the road this season, this is by far their toughest test away from home. Here are New England’s road opponents so far this season: the Jets, the Texans (a game they almost lost), the Chargers (virtually a home game), the Panthers and the Falcons.

None of those teams have any real home-field advantage, and three of those games were played in domes. The two outdoor games (New York and Carolina) were played in good weather.

That likely won’t be the case at Highmark Stadium Monday night. Bills Mafia will surely be fired (and liquored) up for this primetime game. And the weather in Buffalo calls for potential winds between 25-to-45 miles per hour throughout the day.

All of this screams under, even at this low total. I’m also willing to bet on the team with the better roster in Buffalo to eke out a win. However, I wouldn’t bet Buffalo at a field goal or higher. I’m assuming there will be some Pats steam coming in closer to game time, which means we might get an even better line on the Bills.

The picks: Under 42.5, Buffalo -2.5 or better

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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.