New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers Odds & Game Pick (2021)

A pair of .500 teams will aim to get their win-loss record into the positive this Sunday when the New England Patriots take on the Carolina Panthers. In many ways, this inter-conference matchup features two teams trending in opposite directions. While both won outright as NFL betting underdogs last week, the Patriots were much more impressive in doing so. Add in an uncertain picture at quarterback in Carolina, and the visitors are the official NFL betting favorites ahead of this matchup.

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Details

Opening Lines: Patriots -2.5; O/U 44.5
Current Lines: Patriots -3.5; O/U 41.5
Location: Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Start Time: 1 p.m. EDT
TV: CBS
Last Meeting: October 1, 2017 - The Panthers defeated the Patriots 33-30 in Foxborough.

Overview

The Patriots may have only come away with a field goal margin of victory last week, but they put on a clinic against the Los Angeles Chargers in their road game. New England dominated the time of possession, running 75 plays compared to just 58 for the Chargers. Josh McDaniels is honing in the identity of this year's Patriots offense. Predictability, the focus is on the ground game. Damien Harris had another impressive performance last week, rumbling for 80 yards and a score. Both Rhamondre Stevenson and Brandon Bolden also amassed 26 yards apiece on just four carries. Given their success on the ground, the offense put very little pressure on the arm of rookie quarterback Mac Jones. A similar formula will likely allow the Patriots to cover as NFL betting favorites again this week.

Only one Pats receiver finished over 40 yards last week. That was Nelson Agholor. The revolving door of pass-catchers continues. It's anyone's guess as to which New England receiver(s) will step up any given week. The clinic carried over to the defense in last week's win as well. Matthew Judon capped off a ridiculous first two months with another 1.5 sacks.

Meanwhile, in the secondary, Adrian Phillips intercepted Justin Herbert twice. The clever defensive scheming of Bill Belichick has now created ten interceptions on the season and 13 total takeaways. Both marks rank near the top of the NFL. 

Last Sunday, the Panthers successfully snapped a four-game losing skid with a big road win over the NFC South rival Atlanta Falcons. The defense came up huge in holding Atlanta to just 213 yards of total offense. Whether or not the Panthers will replicate that defensive success this week is another story altogether. Carolina ranks just 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency against the run, per Football Outsiders. Knowing that the Patriots want to run the football, generating stops could be tricky in this NFL betting contest. 

The Panthers also are facing an unknown concerning who will start at quarterback in Week 9. Sam Darnold got crushed trying to run for a touchdown late in last week's game. He has yet to practice beyond a limited capacity this week. If Darnold does not clear concussion protocol, former XFL standout P.J. Walker will draw the start. Moving the ball against New England's defense won't be easy, no matter who is under center. One potential lift for Carolina's offense would be the long-awaited return of star running back Christian McCaffrey. If he cannot make it back, rookie Chuba Hubbard will draw another start and look to build off of his best game to date.

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Trends

• Four of the Patriots' last five games have gone over the total.
• The total has gone under in five of the Patriots' last seven road games.
• Panthers are just 1-4 both straight up and ATS in their last five games.
• Nine of the Panthers' last 11 games have gone under the total.
• Panthers are 8-0 straight up in their last eight games against AFC East opponents.

Bottom Line

The Patriots continue to be a team worth buying low on when it comes to NFL betting picks. They may only be 4-4 on the year, but New England has been just a few plays away from being 6-2 or possibly even 7-1. They are one of just five teams that rank top-10 in both scoring offense and defense through the first eight weeks. Mac Jones continues to get more comfortable by the week. While some of the Patriots' defensive numbers are a bit concerning, the top-notch scheming of Bill Belichick continues to make up for any talent deficiencies they have.

Regardless of whether Sam Darnold or P.J. Walker start on Sunday for the Panthers, it's hard to envision them generating a ton of resistance. Carolina's weakness defensively is stopping the run, and that is precisely what the Patriots will be looking to do when they have the football. If Belichick could deploy his secondary in a way that confused Justin Herbert, imagine what he will be able to do to Darnold or a backup QB this week. Given how both of these teams have been trending in recent weeks, laying -3.5 with New England feels like a bargain.

Pick: Patriots -3.5

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.