New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds & Game Pick (2021)

The Week 15 NFL game with the most playoff ramifications might be held in Lucas Oil Stadium Saturday night when the red-hot New England Patriots travel to face an Indianapolis Colts that’s won four of its last five.

A win by New England would further entrench their standing atop the AFC, while the Colts desperately need a win at home to keep pace in the cutthroat wild-card race.

Which of these AFC foes can score a much-needed win in primetime? Let’s break it down.

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Details 

• Opening line: Indianapolis -1.5
• Current line: Indianapolis -2.5
• Total: 45.5

Will the Patriots trust Mac Jones? 

The last time New England played, they defeated the Buffalo Bills despite rookie quarterback Mac Jones throwing only three passes. Ridiculously windy weather forced both teams into more run-heavy approaches. But the win two weeks ago was symbolic of New England’s season.

The Patriots have won games with great defense, a strong running game, and great discipline. Most weeks, Jones is merely a game manager, and I mean that in a positive way. Jones has done a very good job of executing what’s asked of him, even if it isn’t overly aggressive. But you can’t argue with the results, as Jones and the Patriots sit atop the AFC.

The question will be whether that offensive formula can work against the Colts defense that ranks fifth in run defense DVOA. However, not all of the statistics are favorable. The Colts allow 4.5 yards per rush attempt and rank just 16th in adjusted line yards.

The battle in the trenches will also be critical for New England defensively. The Pats rank sixth in run defense DVOA but are 19th in adjusted line yards. That could prove problematic against a Colts offensive line that is arguably the team’s strongest unit.

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Can Carson Wentz be the difference for the Colts?

Right now, when you think of the Indianapolis Colts, you think of Jonathan Taylor. The second-year running back is having a wonderful breakout season and has recently put his team on his back.

Indianapolis has the best running game in the league, according to DVOA, and it’s due to a combination of great blocking and Taylor’s outstanding play. Indy ranks fifth in adjusted line yards, second in second-level yards, and first in open field yards. In other words, the offensive line is doing a great job blocking for Taylor, and Taylor is making the most of his carries.

Perhaps the greatest beneficiary of Taylor’s emergence has been Carson Wentz, who has played well as of late. Since Week 6, Wentz has completed nearly 62% of his passes for 1,626 yards, 15 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Now, Wentz still isn’t immune to a terrible decision or two throughout a game, but reuniting with Frank Reich along with having actual protection in front of him has paid solid dividends.

There are two things I’ll be looking for early on from Indianapolis’ offense: can their offensive line control the line of scrimmage, and will Reich trust Wentz early on? The latter question might be more important, as I suspect Bill Belichick will devise a scheme to limit Taylor on the ground. So this game could come down to how often Reich opts to throw on early downs to keep Belichick guessing and how successful Wentz is in doing so.

Which running game is more poised for success? 

Both of these teams are great at running the ball and defending the run. So which team has the edge? I dug into both teams’ tendencies and strengths on the ground to determine that.

Most teams run the ball up the middle / between the guards, but New England does more often than most. The Patriots run up the middle on 67% of their carries and rank 14th in adjusted line yards per run. Interestingly, Indy is one of the toughest teams to run up the middle against, ranking eighth in adjusted line yards on such runs.

Where the Pats could find success is running to the left side. New England ranks 11th in average line yards when running to the left end, while Indianapolis ranks 20th in defending left end runs. The Colts are even worse at defending off-tackle runs to the outside, ranking 30th in adjusted line yards on such carries.

As for the Colts, they primarily do their damage running up the gut and to the right side. And while New England is pretty strong on runs exclusively to the right side, Taylor and company could make hay going straight up the gut. The Patriots rank 23rd in adjusted line yards on runs between the guards.

Bottom Line 

This is a challenging game to handicap. Both teams are worthy playoff contenders who play such similar styles offensively. Both of these teams are at their best when they’re controlling the game on the ground. And this game could truly come down to which team can establish control first by getting on the board early.

For that reason, I’m not interested in betting on this spread. The number feels about right, and I have no interest in betting against Belichick as a road underdog, a spot he’s 26-15-1 in since 2003.

That leads me to a play on the total. I’m expecting a tight, defensive struggle between two teams that want to keep the ball on the ground and protect their quarterbacks from adverse situations.

Pick: Under 45.5

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