New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Odds & Game Pick (2022)

The Dolphins will look to sweep their season series with the Patriots for the first time since 2000 on Sunday at home in Miami. For the home team, the Dolphins were officially eliminated from postseason play last week with the loss to the Titans. As for the Patriots, they are still in contention to win the division with a win here and a loss by the Bills, but are in the playoffs regardless.

Let’s take a closer look at this AFC East matchup and see where the value remains.

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Details

• Opening Line: Dolphins +5.5, O/U 40
• Current Line: Dolphins +6.5, O/U 40
• Last meeting: September 12, 2021, Dolphins 17, Patriots 16

Overview

The Dolphins have missed the playoffs now for a fifth straight season as questions continue to whirl around the competency of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. In just his second year, Tagovailoa has a decent record of 12-8 but has failed to show the ability to throw the deep ball.

While Tagovailoa’s future in Miami is uncertain, the Patriot’s Alabama-bred quarterback is much more concrete. In his first season in New England, Mac Jones has guided the Patriots to not only a playoff appearance but a chance to win the division with one game to go.

Through his 16 games at the helm, Jones has thrown for 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, averaging 221 passing yards per game, and is currently the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Elsewhere in the offense, running back Damien Harris is just 12 yards short of 1,000 yards from scrimmage and has been the workhorse that carried this offense through stretches of Jones playing mediocre.

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Trends

• Lions are 4-0 ATS in L4 vs. NFC
• Lions are 4-0 ATS in L4 Week 17 games
• Over is 5-1 in Seahawks L6 games in January

Bottom Line

While the Dolphin’s Week 1 win over the Patriots was certainly impressive, that was nearly a season ago and things should be much different this time around. With nothing to play for but pride and a team of players of whom many won’t be around next season, the Dolphin’s motivation in this one is just too big of a question mark.

I expect the Patriots to come in with a focused game plan, and to roll big late in this one.

Pick: Patriots -6.5

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