New Mexico Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Picks & Predictions (SMU vs. BYU)

Here’s a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for New Mexico Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the weekend.

2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Note: Spreads are from the favorite’s perspective. ATL stands for “Adjusted Thor Line.” ATT stands for “Adjusted Thor Total.”

New Mexico Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets

New Mexico Bowl | Albuquerque, NM
Saturday, December 17 | 1:15 PM
SMU (-5.5) vs. Brigham Young | Total: 64.5
ATL: SMU -8.5 | ATT: 63

SMU
RB TJ McDaniel (Transfer portal)
WR Rashee Rice (Injury)

WR Rice will sit with a toe injury. One of the nation’s most dangerous receivers, Rice dropped a 96-1355-10 receiving line during the regular season. RB McDaniel was a rotational back that SMU has the depth to cover for without issue.

BYU
QB Jacob Conover (Transfer portal)
QB Jaren Hall (Injury)
WR Keanu Hill (Injury)
OL Campbell Barrington (Transfer portal)
LB Keenan Pili (Transfer portal)
LB Payton Wilgar (Injury)
LB Max Tooley (Injury)

QB Hall suffered a right ankle injury in the finale against Stanford. X-rays were negative. But while Hall said after the game that he was okay and would “100%” play in the bowl game, BYU HC Kalani Sitake has been noncommittal about Hall’s status. I heard early Monday morning that Hall was likely going to be out. My co-host for the live Saturday handicapping shows, Mike Farrell, heard from his own sources that Hall was out barring a “miracle.” Between Sunday night and Monday morning, this line jumped from SMU -1.5 to -3.5, and it has now crossed over the key -4 and -4.5 thresholds – clearly multiple heavy hitters in the market heard what we heard.

If Hall indeed can’t go, BYU is in a precarious position. QB2 Jacob Conover entered the transfer portal and is out of the picture. Sitake said last week that backup QBs Cade Fennegan, Nick Billoups, and Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters would be competing in practice to determine who will take Conover’s old spot on the two-deep. Whoever that is would start assuming Hall can’t. QB Fennegan has attempted 28 career passes, the other two have no experience.

WR Hill had 36 catches this fall. LB Pili was No. 2 on the defense in snaps taken, while injured LBs Wilgar and Tooley were Nos. 3 and 4 among the linebacking corps in snaps taken. The Cougars’ bad defense has had its linebacking corps decimated in advance of this game.

Coaching news
BYU’s staff got a serious shake-up after the regular season. BYU associate HC Ed Lamb, who also coached special teams, took the HC job at FCS Northern Colorado. Lamb is bringing the following coaches with him: BYU DE/S coach Preston Hadley, analysts Blair Peterson and Justin Walterscheid, and defensive graduate assistant DJ Williams. This comes after BYU pushed out longtime DC Ilaisa Tuiaki immediately after the season. Tuiaki returned 10 starters on defense but his unit sagged to No. 93 in yards allowed. In addition, strength and conditioning coach Nu’u Tafisi quietly left the program without an announcement from the university in early-December.

Handicap
BYU’s defense was one of the nation’s most disappointing units. Change was coming, and it happened immediately. But the blowing-up of the staff on that side of the ball isn’t likely to improve the problem for the bowl game. Against a high-powered SMU offense, that’s Problem No. 1.

Problem No. 2 is that defense won’t be at its best on-the-field, either. LB Pili was No. 2 on the defense in snaps taken, while injured LBs Wilgar and Tooley were Nos. 3 and 4 among the linebacking corps in snaps taken. The Cougars’ bad defense has had its linebacking corps decimated in advance of this game.

Problem No. 3 for BYU is the expected loss of QB Jaren Hall. When I was told about that, on Monday morning, I bought an SMU -3.5 ticket. In the days since, this line has continued to tick up. More movement is on the way when the official announcement drops.

Assuming Hall’s absence, BYU is in big trouble on the offensive side of the ball. With QB2 Conover out the door to transfer, BYU would be looking at a craterous downgrade from one of the FBS’ best quarterbacks (Hall graded out PFF No. 22 among FBS quarterbacks) into the unknown. None of backup QBs Cade Fennegan, Nick Billoups, and Sol-Jay Maiava-Peters has thrown a pass this season.

The offense was the reason BYU remained viable this fall despite the defense’s no-show. Without QB Hall, that likely won’t be the case against SMU, even against the Mustangs’ poor defense. BYU RB Christopher Brooks will be able to churn out yards, but if BYU’s backup QB can’t get the ball to WR Puka Nacua, the Cougars will become one-dimensional and predictable immediately.

BYU’s No. 103 SP+ defense is equally generous against the run and pass. The loss of WR Rashee Rice hurts SMU’s offense, sure, but it doesn’t kill it. SMU QB Tanner Mordecai will be looking to put on a show in his swan song, and the Ponies’ depth at the RB and WR positions should ultimately shine through with a barrage of yardage and points.

The pick: SMU -5.5

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