New Orleans Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Picks & Predictions (South Alabama vs. Western Kentucky)

Here's a look at the bowl-game spreads and totals for New Orleans Bowl with my projections. You can also find my best bets. And here are all of my best bowl game bets for the upcoming week.

2022: 82-66-3 ATS (55.4%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)

Note: Spreads are from the favorite's perspective. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line." ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total."

New Orleans Bowl: College Football 2022 Bowl Game Best Bets

New Orleans Bowl | New Orleans, LA
Wednesday, December 21 | 8:00 PM
South Alabama (-4.5) vs. Western Kentucky | Total: 54
ATL: USA -7.6 | ATT : 52.5

South Alabama
WR Devin Voisin (Injury)
OT Anterrious Gray (Transfer portal)

USA WR Voisin is questionable with an arm injury. He left the regular season finale with his arm in a sling. Voisin's a starter who posted a solid 70.0 PFF grade through the first 12 games. OT Gray only played 46 snaps during the regular season.

Western Kentucky
QB Darius Ocean (Transfer portal)
WR Daewood Davis (Opt-out)
TE Joshua Simon (Transfer portal)
TE Joey Beljan (Transfer portal)
OC Rusty Staats (Transfer portal)
OT Gunner Britton (Transfer portal)
LB JaQues Evans (Transfer portal)
LB Matthew Flint (Transfer portal)
CB Kahlef Hailassie (Opt-out)
CB B.J. Wagner (Transfer portal)
S Arthur Brathwaite (Transfer portal)
S Talique Allen (Transfer portal)
K Brayden Narveson (Transfer portal)

QB Austin Reed entered the transfer portal and flirted with Louisville. But Reed had a sudden change-of-heart and returned to WKU. He announced that he will play in the bowl game. This is huge news. When Reed announced his transfer initially, the market had an aggressive reaction. The spread at sportsbooks immediately changed from South Alabama -2.5 to -8. Reed's return has stabilized the spread. Reed is No. 2 in the nation with 4,247 passing yards.

Reed's offensive line won't be as strong in the bowl game as it was during the season. OC Staats and OT Britton were both solid starters. WR Daewood Davis and CB Kahlef Hailassie, each transfers from Oregon, both declared for the NFL Draft. Davis was the team's second-best receiver. CB Hailassie was WKU's best defender - his loss hurts.

TE Simon is a very skilled receiver. WKU probably made a mistake splitting his snaps with backup TE Beljan, who is also in the portal. It is unclear if either will play in the bowl. Same goes for LB Evans and S Allen, both starters. Over the last two seasons, Evans logged 109 tackles, 12 TFL, and 6.5 sacks. Allen would be easier to replace if he's out.

Handicap
The return of WKU Austin Reed was great news for the Hilltopper. But even at full-strength - and WKU is far from full-strength following myriad defections outside of Reed - the Hilltoppers struggled mightily when stepping up in competition this fall.

The Hilltoppers went 7-1 SU against teams ranked SP+ No. 80 or lower - bottom-50 teams in the country. The loss, against No. 91 Indiana, should have been a win (WKU 90% postgame win expectancy).

Against teams ranked higher than that threshold, WKU went 1-4 SU. The one win was over UAB on a Friday night in October. I happened to watch that entire game. WKU absolutely should not have won it. The Hilltoppers prevailed 17-14 despite giving up 200 run yards to RB DeWayne McBride and struggling on offense because UAB QB Dylan Hopkins got knocked out for the game on its first drive and the Blazers literally couldn't throw for the rest of it (63 pass yards on the first drive, 33 pass yards the rest of the game).

Unfortunately for WKU, South Alabama is a very strong squad. The Jaguars rank No. 33 SP+. USA has a middle-of-the-road offense (No. 66 SP+), but an awesome defense (No. 22) and special teams (No. 20). And unlike WKU, South Alabama remains at full-strength for this one.

The Jags' pass defense - extremely important against WKU's Air Raid - is superb, ranking No. 11 in success rate and No. 20 in efficiency. USA also ranks No. 4 in tackle success rate, ensuring WKU's ability to get the ball into space won't end in huge plays.

USA will also have an enormous havoc advantage on both sides of the ball. The Jags rank No. 11 in defensive havoc rate and No. 26 in havoc allowed. WKU ranks No. 101 in havoc rate, and No. 69 in havoc allowed.

The pick: South Alabama -4.5

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