New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The last team I want to think about right now is the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts - primarily Carson Wentz and Frank Reich - ruined what should’ve been an excellent Week 8 for my betting card. I got the Colts at +1.5 at home against the Tennessee Titans before they closed as three-point favorites. Then the Colts took an early 14-0 lead. But if you bet the Colts as I did, you know it all went downhill from there.
Meanwhile, the New York Jets are flying high after a shocking victory over the Cincinnati Bengals with backup QB Mike White at the helm.
These two teams square off at Lucas Oil Stadium on a short week. Should we sell high on the Jets and buy low on the Colts? Should I bet on the Jets out of spite? Let’s break down this Thursday night showdown.
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Details
- Opening line: Colts -8.5
- Current line: Colts -10.5
- Total: 46
Can Mike White do it again?
As I wrote in my game preview last week, the Jets caught the Bengals in an awful spot. While I recommended betting on them to cover, I did not expect them to win that game outright.
White deserves all the credit in the world for one of the best starting debuts in NFL history. He played the hero a MetLife Stadium, throwing for 405 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-31 upset.
White’s performance is a remarkable story, but it comes with a caveat: He wasn’t asked to do a whole lot. White didn’t throw a single pass that traveled 20+ yards, and he threw only one pass that traveled beyond 10 yards. It was a dink-and-dunk offense, as evidenced by tailbacks Michael Carter and Ty Johnson combining for 14 catches.
But it worked. The Jets’ offense looked better than it had all season, racking up 511 yards and 32 first downs against a Bengals defense that never adjusted.
The question will be whether the Jets try to open things up downfield against the Colts, who rank fifth overall in defensive DVOA, but 20th in passing DVOA.
Defensively, the Jets remain subpar, ranking 28th in defensive DVOA. The unit hadn’t recorded an interception all season until last Sunday, when edge rusher Shaq Thompson made a terrific play on a Joe Burrow screen pass. The underwhelming group lacks talent at all three levels.
The Jets deserve a ton of credit for rallying to erase a 31-20 fourth-quarter deficit. They deserve praise for bouncing back from a miserable effort off the bye two weeks ago in New England. However, I can’t emphasize enough that the Jets caught the Bengals at a great time and won despite turning the ball over three times.
Are the Colts packing it in?
One of my biggest questions heading into this game, and the rest of the season, is whether the Colts have given up. Losing how they did in such a pivotal division game is as bad as it gets in the NFL. Indianapolis sits at 3-5 and will have to overcome a four-game deficit to catch the Titans atop the AFC South. They’re also on the outside looking in on the wild-card race, with two games in the loss column to make up.
Reich has nobody to blame but himself, and his quarterback. Reich’s overreliance on Wentz last Sunday was mind-boggling. Wentz had 51 pass attempts, including a pick-six and essentially the game-sealing interception in overtime.
Reich asked Wentz to do way too much when he didn’t have to. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 70 yards on just 16 carries.
Everyone except Reich seems to agree that the second-year running back is Indianapolis’ best offensive weapon. Indianapolis ranks 12th in rush-offense DVOA and 22nd in pass-defense DVOA. Run prevention is New York’s strength, but it isn’t elite by any stretch. Indy needs to set Wentz up for success by establishing Taylor on the ground and relying on him more often.
Bottom Line
This is a tough game to gauge from a handicapping perspective. The Jets feel undervalued after scoring a huge win over the Bengals. The Colts feel overvalued after wetting the bed in their biggest game of the year. Thursday Night Football is always strange, as evidenced last week by the short-handed Packers knocking off the previously undefeated Arizona Cardinals.
The Colts are ultimately the stronger team on both sides of the ball. While I give the Jets credit, their win over the Bengals feels fluky given the circumstances. I have doubts regarding what White can do when forced to push the ball downfield. Maybe this is a Drew Bledsoe-Tom Brady situation for Gang Green, but it feels improbable.
NFL betting requires us to be nimble in our thinking. It feels like nobody wants to bet on the Colts, yet this line has only moved in Indianapolis’ favor. That’s a telling sign that the sharper play is, unfortunately, on Carson Wentz and the Colts.
The pick: Colts -10.5, but prefer -10 or better if possible.
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Matt Barbato is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Matt, check out his archive and follow him @RealMattBarbato.