New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins Odds & Game Pick (2021)
The Miami Dolphins will look to keep rolling coming off the bye week when they host the lowly New York Jets Sunday afternoon.
After starting the season 1-7, the Dolphins are suddenly alive in the highly competitive AFC playoff race after rattling off five straight wins. A win over the Jets would get them to level pegging at 7-7 and could get them into a tie for the final AFC playoff berth.
Meanwhile, the lowly Jets are simply playing out the string after being eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s loss to New Orleans.
Do the Dolphins deserve to be big home favorites? Or can the Jets show some fight in South Beach? Let’s break it down.
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Details
- Opening line: Miami -6.5
- Current line: Miami -9.5
- Total: 41
Is Miami for real?
The Dolphins are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, but their five-game winning streak comes with a little more than a grain of salt.
Miami’s last five victories have come against the lousy Texans (by just eight points), an overrated and banged-up Ravens team, the Jets, the Panthers led by a washed-up Cam Newton, and a hapless Giants team led by Mike Glennon.
The Dolphins deserve credit for taking care of business in those games, but let’s just keep in mind Miami has a strength of victory over just .397 that would be even worse if not for a Week 1 victory over New England.
So we know Miami’s resume isn’t overly strong. But are the Dolphins a potential team on the rise? Probably not. Miami ranks just 24th in overall DVOA despite ranking 11th in defensive DVOA.
Miami’s defense is starting to look like the unit that nearly got them to the playoffs a season ago. The Dolphins blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and that strategy has caused a ton of havoc during their winning streak. Miami has forced 11 turnovers in their last five games after earning just nine takeaways in their first eight contests.
That’s impressive, but let’s keep in mind the quarterbacks Miami has faced during that span. Not to beat a dead horse (or dolphin), but Miami appears to be more a beneficiary of a soft scheduling stretch.
Offensively, Miami is still a bit of an enigma. The Dolphins rank 25th in offensive DVOA, which is actually one spot below the Jets. Miami operates as a team that’s afraid of its quarterback, utilizing a steady dose of an unimpressive running game along with a short passing game that rarely stretches opponents downfield.
Miami’s offense has some potential, namely in the form of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle. However, Miami’s offensive line still needs an overhaul. The Dolphins rank 31st in adjusted line yards and have given up 31 sacks on the season. Poor offensive line play isn’t a huge concern against a weak Jets front seven that struggles to win the line of scrimmage.
The Dolphins also have a slew of COVID-19 issues that could impact them Sunday. Waddle recently was placed on the COVID-19 reserve list, along with safety Jevon Holland and running back Phillip Lindsay. The good news is Miami recently activated tailbacks Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed from the COVID-19 list. Gaskin rushed or 89 yards on 23 carries in the first meeting.
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Growth is what matters for the Jets
It’s no longer about wins and losses for New York now that they’re eliminated from playoff contention. What matters most is seeing Zach Wilson take strides. And against an aggressive Miami defense, Wilson could be in for a long day.
New York’s offensive line surrendered eight quarterback hits and two sacks in their first meeting with the immobile Joe Flacco under center. Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur will need to scheme up some quick passes and rollouts to protect their rookie passer.
New York’s defense remains a flat-out disaster, ranking dead last in defensive DVOA.
Bottom Line
Nothing about the Jets instills much confidence. They’re banged up on both sides of the ball and aren’t even very talented when at full strength. But laying 9.5 points with a mediocre Miami team feels risky too.
But if I had to make a bet on this game, I’d go with the under, which is 3-2 in New York’s last five games and 4-1 in Miami’s last four contests. This feels like another ugly Miami win in a game that nobody will want to watch.
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