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NFC Championship Game Preview, Odds & Picks: Lions vs. 49ers (Sunday)

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The chaser Sunday night is the NFC Championship Game between the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers will be playing in their seventh NFC Championship Game in the last 13 years, while the Lions are making their second-ever appearance and first in 32 years.

The home 49ers are one-touchdown favorites, but there are some unknown player availability factors that could provide an edge for both teams.

Let's take a deeper look into the matchup.

NFC Championship Game Preview, Odds & Picks

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco steamrolled most of the way through their path to reach the NFC's pinnacle contest. They compiled a 12-5 regular season record and followed up with a 24-21 thrilling comeback victory over the Packers last week in the Divisional round. They had the first-ranked offense all season in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).

Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey led a first and second-ranked pass-and-run offense, respectively. Both players have deservedly been in the conversation for league MVP, but it can be reasonably argued that neither is the most important player to the offense.

Deebo Samuel is questionable to play on Sunday. He injured a shoulder that previously held him out for the better part of three games during the season. After injuring the shoulder early against Cleveland, he missed the rest of that game and the two following games. The 49ers averaged 333.3 yards of offense in those games and managed just 17 points per game, going 0-3 in those contests.

Last week, they managed just 356 yards against the Packer defense that ranked 27th in DVOA and needed a late touchdown to pull off the 24-21 victory. Deebo's availability will be a major X-factor in this matchup.

Detroit sits just one win away from their first-ever trip to the Super Bowl. They've ridden a strong offensive performance all year that has helped make up for some defensive deficiencies, especially in the passing game.

It's been well documented the advantage that Detroit had at home this season, but it's been surprising road success that led to their 12-5 regular season record. The Lions went 6-3 straight up (SU) and 7-2 against the spread (ATS) away from home this season, 2-1 ATS as underdogs.

As much as the talk will be about the Detroit defense, the Lions' elite offensive line will dictate whether they can keep this game close. The run game has been led by the two-headed monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, who rushed for a combined 1,960 yards and 23 touchdowns. Gibbs trailed only James Conner with 10 runs of 20+ yards and tacked on another last Sunday with an electric 31-yard touchdown.

The run defense for the 49ers has been susceptible to big plays this season and ranked 15th in DVOA. Last week, Aaron Jones ran for over 100 yards, including an explosive run. Detroit's offense should be able to move the ball against the 49ers on what should be a beautiful Bay Area evening. 

Both offenses will be capable of putting up points on Sunday evening. The injury status of Deebo Samuel will play a big role in how easily the 49ers are able to move the ball. His absence from San Francisco this year has been felt on the scoreboard and could play a major role in who wins this game.

Meanwhile, Detroit will need to keep Jared Goff on his feet and be able to move the ball on the ground, both of which they have excelled at all season. Detroit has been a team of road warriors this season, and with the spread as large as it stands, should be able to repeat that success on Sunday.

  • Pick: Lions +7 (-110)
  • Over 50.5 (-110)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

 

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