NFL AFC & NFC Championship Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
The second-half run for the 49ers this season has provided San Francisco with plenty of hype heading into Championship Weekend. Are the Niners about to run into an Eagles’ buzzsaw?
The Bengals have never lost to the Chiefs with Joe Burrow at the helm. That streak gets put on the line Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium. With so many interesting angles to go around, will this be the most enjoyable player props day of the season in the NFL?
2023 NFL Playoffs Conference Championships Betting Guide >>
Best Player Prop Bets for NFL Championship Sunday
Below, we take a look at a handful of our favorite props from Championship Weekend of the NFL playoffs.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders (RB – PHI): UNDER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-114 via FanDuel)
Miles Sanders is the leading running back on a capable rushing offense. He showed it with 90 yards on the ground in the Eagles’ Division Round win over the Giants. But this weekend in a tough matchup against San Francisco, I’m fading Sanders as a volume back.
Though he averaged 4.9 yards per carry during the season, it’s going to be tougher sledding for Sanders against a Niners’ defense allowing just 3.4 YPC on the campaign. Considering the way Philly tends to split the backfield work between Sanders, Kenny Gainwell, and Boston Scott, I don’t know that the fourth-year runner will get the volume necessary to clear this total.
DraftKings has an alternate rushing total for Sanders listed at 54.5 yards, which is a more favorable number than the FanDuel line. But the DraftKings line is attached to -125 odds, so we’ll stick with the more attractive -114 odds at FanDuel.
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI): OVER 247.5 Passing Yards (-114 via FanDuel)
The 49ers have such a strong run defense that it seems the only way for the Eagles to move the ball against them will be through the air. There is some precedent for this concept, too, as San Francisco has given up 250+ passing yards to opposing teams in six of its last 10 games.
Jalen Hurts hasn’t been a volume passer in the majority of his games this season, but he’s broken out the heavy artillery when necessary. In a matchup where the Philly rushing offense may struggle to find traction, I expect Hurts will be forced to pivot to an air-heavy attack.
Hurts has five games this season with more than 280 passing yards, which makes the alternate passing line of 274.5 (+155) at DraftKings interesting. For a more attainable line, though, we’re looking to FanDuel as it’s posted two yards lower than the closest DK offering.
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF): OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114 via FanDuel)
Though it’s been a questionable week of practice participation for Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers didn’t trade for this guy for him to take it easy in the biggest game of the season. No, CMC will be active. And CMC will run on Sunday in Philadelphia.
The Eagles have allowed 121.4 rushing yards per game this season. Though McCaffrey does cede some snaps to Elijah Mitchell, I don’t expect that to happen as often on Sunday. McCaffrey is a workhorse who has been dreaming of a game like this his entire career.
He only ran 10 times for 35 yards last week, but the Cowboys have one of the top run defenses in the league. Philadelphia doesn’t. For this rushing total at FanDuel to be below 60 yards feels like an incredible gift.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Isiah Pacheco (RB – KC): OVER 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114 via FanDuel)
Isiah Pacheco doesn’t have the friendliest matchup against the stout Bengals’ run defense, but he’s a hard guy to ignore given his recent success and role in the Kansas City backfield. Pacheco has taken over the bulk rushing role down the stretch for the Chiefs, clearing 50 yards on the ground in nine of his past 10 games.
That stretch included a 14-carry, 66-yard performance in early December against these same Bengals. Though it will require an extra yard from Pacheco to get there, I prefer the FanDuel line at 48.5 over the DraftKings offering of 47.5 due to the difference in the odds: -114 to -135.
Trenton Irwin (WR – CIN): OVER 8.5 Receiving Yards (-110 via DraftKings)
In a game with so many incredible skill players on both sides, it may seem ridiculous to be touting Trenton Irwin, but the DraftKings line has led us directly to a place where it’s prudent to do so. Irwin needs to clear just 8.5 receiving yards to cash this prop. Based on his involvement over the latter half of the season, I like his chances to get there.
It took until Week 8 for Irwin to see the field offensively, but he’s mixed into the scheme for Cincinnati in every game since. Of the 10 games in which Irwin has played an offensive snap this season, he’s cleared this receiving mark nine times. The only time he didn’t get there came in a defensive struggle against the Ravens on Wild Card Weekend. Last week against Buffalo, he was back into the fold with a 13-yard reception on two targets.
Irwin is shifty, with enough savvy to go unnoticed in the shuffle at least once on Sunday. The -110 odds associated with this paltry line at DraftKings make this my favorite YOLO prop of the weekend.
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