Navigate

NFL Anytime Touchdown Scorer Prop Bet Picks & Predictions (Conference Championships)

by |

While 14 teams entered the NFL playoffs, only four remain heading into Conference Championship Sunday. The AFC and NFC Championship games will determine which teams will take the field in Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII.

The first matchup is the AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens. Then, the Detroit Lions face the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. Millions of dollars will get bet on these games, but which touchdown prop bets should you bet?

Let's take a look at my favorite touchdown bets for both matchups.

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value, & Star Rating >>

NFL Conference Championship Games Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens

Chiefs First TD Scorer: Isiah Pacheco (+330)

Bettors need to keep an eye on the Chiefs' injury report heading into Sunday's game. Pacheco didn't practice on Wednesday or Thursday because of ankle and toe injuries. However, the second-year running back said he plans to play in the AFC Championship Game. The former Rutgers star scored the first Kansas City touchdown in nearly half of the games in the regular season he played, including their last two meaningful contests in Week 16 and 17.

Last week, the Ravens completely shut down the Houston Texans running game. They had only 38 rushing yards, with Devin Singletary averaging only 2.4 yards per attempt. While Baltimore held Houston without an offensive touchdown last weekend, don't expect that to happen again on Sunday. The first touchdown scored against the Ravens was by a running back in nearly half of the games during the regular season, including two of the final three.

Ravens First TD Scorer: Mark Andrews (+650)

Many thought Andrews' season was over after suffering a leg injury in the Week 11 win over the Cincinnati Bengals. However, Baltimore activated the superstar tight end off injured reserve on Friday, meaning he will play in the AFC Championship Game. Some believe Andrews will only play a decoy role. However, it doesn't make sense for him to play if he isn't healthy. Meanwhile, Isaiah Likely was outstanding filling in for the superstar tight end.

The second-year tight end had five receiving touchdowns during the regular season, the second-most on the team behind Andrews. More importantly, Likely scored the first Ravens touchdown in three of the final five regular season games. Meanwhile, the Chiefs surrendered only four touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season. However, three of those touchdowns were the first score against Kansas City, including two of their final six regular season games.

Anytime TD Scorer: Travis Kelce (+115)

While he looked slow and washed during the regular season, Kelce has bounced back during the playoffs. The future Hall of Fame tight end has 12 receptions on 16 targets for 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the postseason, finding the end zone twice last week against the Buffalo Bills. Kelce leads the team in target per route run rate (28%), receiving touchdown market share (66.7%), and first-read target share (35.6%) during the postseason (per Fantasy Points Data).

Furthermore, the superstar tight end leads the Chiefs in end zone targets and first-read target share in the red zone during the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Ravens surrendered only three receiving touchdowns to tight ends during the regular season, the third-fewest in the NFL. However, they never faced a superstar like Kelce. The future Hall of Famer has found the end zone at least once in seven of the past eight playoff contests.

Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers

Lions First TD Scorer: David Montgomery (+380)

The Lions are a run-first team. They had 27 rushing touchdowns during the regular season, the most in the NFL. Furthermore, only three touchdowns didn't come from Montgomery or Jahmyr Gibbs. The veteran running back led the team with 13 rushing touchdowns despite missing three games, finishing fifth in the league during the regular season. While he didn't find the end zone last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Montgomery had scored a touchdown in the previous four games.

Furthermore, the star running back found the end zone at least once in 85.7% of the games this year outside of matchups against the Buccaneers. More importantly, he had the first Detroit touchdown in four of the past eight games, including two weeks ago against the Los Angeles Rams. Meanwhile, the first touchdown scored against the 49ers was a rushing one in three of their final six games during the regular season.

49ers First TD Scorer: Brandon Aiyuk (+370)

Hopefully, Deebo Samuel can play on Sunday after suffering a shoulder injury in the win over the Green Bay Packers. However, I would avoid betting on him. We've seen San Francisco use him as a decoy in the past. Meanwhile, Aiyuk should see a higher target share if Samuel can't play or is less than 100%. He had the first 49ers touchdown in only three games during the regular season, with the last coming in Week 13.

However, Aiyuk led the team in receiving touchdowns this year (seven). Meanwhile, his matchup this weekend is outstanding. The Lions surrendered 22 receiving touchdowns to wide receivers during the regular season, the third-most in the NFL. They have also given up a receiving touchdown to Puka Nacua and Mike Evans in the playoffs. More importantly, the first touchdown scored against Detroit has been by a wide receiver in five of their past seven contests.

Anytime TD Scorer: Christian McCaffrey (-370)

While this pick is low-hanging fruit, that was the case last week, and bettors still ended the game with a victory. McCaffrey has been a touchdown machine this year, scoring at least once in 87.5% of the regular season contests he finished. The superstar running back had more regular season games with two or more touchdowns (five) than without finding the end zone (three). Last week, he had two rushing touchdowns against the Packers.

Meanwhile, the Lions had a solid run defense during the regular season, surrendering only nine rushing touchdowns to running backs, the 10th-fewest in the NFL. However, their run defense has struggled during the playoffs. While Detroit hasn't given up a rushing touchdown to a running back during the postseason, Rachaad White had a receiving score last week. Furthermore, White and Kyren Williams averaged 5.3 yards per rushing attempt against the Lions. McCaffrey is more likely to score twice in this game than not at all.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday:

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App