It's no secret that QBs have the largest impact when it comes to point spreads in the NFL, but what about other positions and players? Many factors come into play when assessing a player's value toward the spread. Still, it boils down to a combination of performance on the field, importance to their team's scheme, and the drop-off in production at the replacement level. This article will break down the 10 non-QBs who mean the most to the point spread in the 2022 NFL season.
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10. Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN) | 0.5-1 points
Jefferson wasted no time bursting onto the scene in 2020, catching 88 balls for 1,400 yards (good for the third-highest mark of all time for a rookie). He significantly upped his production in 2021, recording the second-most receiving yards in the NFL (1,616) on 108 receptions (4th highest in 2021). Jefferson earned his stats by commanding an insane 45% target share on balls thrown to Vikings WRs (29% target share in the entire offense), even with the presence of Adam Theilen and the emerging KJ Osborn.
The change in head coach from the defensive-oriented Mike Zimmer to the former Rams OC Kevin O'Connell has generated a ton of buzz about the potential of the 2022 Vikings offense, indicating that Jefferson has potentially not yet reached his ceiling. Other comparable receivers over the past half-decade (Tyreek Hill, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins) have tended to affect the spread around 0.5-1 points when they missed time, and Jefferson should be valued as having a similar impact.