NFL Betting Line Movement Analysis for Week 15 (2021)

Chalk may have held form for the most part last week, but the NFL betting line moves have been coming fast and furious ahead of Week 15 action. When considering the players who are injured or in the league’s “health and safety protocols,” it makes sense that several games have seen major adjustments across the market. We also had the first coach get fired this week, which has also sparked a line move in his former team’s respective game. Add up all of the chaos, and we are in for a wild Week 15 slate of football. Oh, and the playoff races are heating up to boot!

The following article highlights some of the most significant and noteworthy NFL line moves and breaks down what might be behind each shift. As always, a table containing both the opening and current betting odds for each game on the Week 15 slate is included at the end of this column. 

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Significant NFL Week 15 Line Moves | Point Spreads

Raiders at Browns (LV from +5 to -4.5)

One of the poster games for those impacted by the NFL’s virus protocols is Saturday evening’s showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns. It’s very rare that a team sees a six-point line move go in their favor just one week after getting blown out 48-9. That is exactly the position in which the Raiders find themselves thanks to widespread positive tests in Cleveland. In fact, this NFL betting line move completely bucks the results both teams earned last week after the Browns took down the division-leading Baltimore Ravens.

Everyone from QB Baker Mayfield to wideout Jarvis Landry to tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. is currently in health and safety protocols. Even Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski and backup quarterback Case Keenum have tested positive. For those keeping score at home, that leaves Nick Mullens in line to start Saturday’s game. Despite an overwhelming majority of cases both in the Browns’ locker room and around the NFL being asymptomatic, Cleveland will be forced to play this game extremely shorthanded. 

Washington at Eagles (PHI from -2.5 to -9.5)

Oddly enough, a divisional rivalry has seen the largest point spread move of any Week 15 game. The Philadelphia Eagles were originally priced as 2.5-point home favorites for Sunday’s matchup against the Washington Football Team. Once again, we have the good old health and safety protocol rearing its ugly head. In total, 21 Washington players were in the protocol as of Thursday afternoon. A defensive front that has been the Football Team’s strength all season has been decimated by positive tests.

While the Eagles have had several NFL betting line moves go in their favor this season, none have moved a full touchdown. Fresh off of a bye last week, Philadelphia will be mostly healthy for Sunday’s game. While one can debate whether or not sticking with Jalen Hurts over Gardner Minshew at quarterback is the right move, the Eagles have enjoyed massive sharp action in their favor as a result of Washington’s issues. On top of the virus list, star wideout Terry McLaurin remains questionable to play due to a concussion.

Packers at Ravens (GB from -2 to -5.5)

While health and safety protocols aren’t to blame for this final point spread move, uncertainty on the injury front certainly is playing a part. The Green Bay Packers have gone from two-point road favorites to now laying -5.5 ahead of Sunday’s matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. While Aaron Rodgers is in hot pursuit of back-to-back MVP awards, the Ravens’ offense has completely fallen to pieces over the past month.

After looking like an MVP candidate earlier in the season, Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson has fallen on hard times. The Ravens have only scored more than 20 points once in their last five games. They did so late in last week’s comeback bid after Jackson had already left the game with an injury. That same injury has left his Week 15 status firmly in doubt. While Tyler Huntley already won a game starting in his place this season, it didn’t come against the 10-win Packers. 

Significant NFL Week 15 Line Moves | Totals

Texans at Jaguars (43 down to 39.5)

The over/under for Sunday’s AFC South Division clash between the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars has taken a nosedive. After opening at 43, the line now sits at just 39.5. Oddly enough, this game is one of two with NFL betting totals sitting under 40. Given how bad both teams have been offensively this season, it’s hard to argue vehemently against the move. The Jaguars rank 31st in scoring offense averaging just 13.8 points per game on the season. The only club worse than Jacksonville is the Texans outfit that sits at 13.6. 

Despite the ugly offensive performances from both sides in recent weeks, there are a couple of elements that might throw a wrench in bettors who hammered the under. First and foremost, the Jaguars fired disgruntled head coach Urban Meyer on Wednesday. The point spread for this game has climbed from favoring the Jags by three to -5 at the time of writing. With Meyer gone, one has to believe the Jaguars will play a more spirited game all around, especially on offense. The other thing to point out is that the two teams combined for 58 points in their first meeting this season. While that came all the way back in Week 1 and saw Tyrod Taylor play QB for the Texans instead of Davis Mills, it still makes for quite the disparity compared to the new Week 15 total.

Seahawks at Rams (48 down to 45)

The NFL betting total for this NFC West Division showdown has also trended down after opening at 48. The betting market has moved the line for Sunday’s matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams down to 45. It’s a curious move, to say the least, especially from the Seahawks’ side of things. It actually appears as though Russell Wilson and the offense have fixed some things in recent weeks. 

This move is due to yet another health and safety protocols scenario, this time in the Rams’ locker room. Running back Darrell Henderson missed last week’s game with the virus, seven more players joined him on the virus list after the game. Among them was wideout Odell Beckham Jr. With L.A. not expected to be at 100% for this game, the consensus handicap has clearly been to hammer the under.

Week 15 NFL Betting Line Moves Table

Refer to the table below for a side-by-side comparison of the opening and current Las Vegas consensus lines for the Week 15 NFL games including those discussed above.

Note: All current odds reflect lines at 2 p.m. EDT on Thursday, December 16th. 

Matchup	Opening Lines	Current Vegas Consensus
Chiefs Chargers	-3 49.5	-3 53.5
Raiders Browns	44 -5	-4.5 38.5
Patriots Colts	-2.5 43.5	45.5 -2
Washington Eagles	44.5 -2.5	44 -9.5
Panthers Bills	45 -9.5	44.5 -10.5
Jets Dolphins	44.5 -7	41.5 -9.5
Cowboys Giants	-10 45	-10.5 44.5
Titans Steelers	-2.5 43	-1.5 43
Texans Jaguars	43 -3.5	39.5 -5
Cardinals Lions	-12.5 47.5	-12.5 47.5
Falcons 49ers	45.5 -7.5	46.5 -9
Bengals Broncos	-3 44.5	44 -2.5
Packers Ravens	-2 45.5	-5.5 43.5
Seahawks Rams	48 -7	45 -5.5
Saints Buccaneers	48 -11.5	46.5 -11
Vikings Bears	-4 43.5	-4.5 44.5

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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeHenry.