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NFL Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Conference Championships (Sunday)

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Let's dive into the two-game Sunday NFL conference championship matchups. Here are my top picks and player prop bet picks between the San Francisco 49ers vs the Detroit Lions and the Baltimore Ravens vs the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Sunday Football Betting Primer

Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs Kansas City Chiefs

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have won each of their last five games as underdogs.
  • KC is 100% ATS as an underdog this season. 3-0 straight up.
  • KC is 4-0 ATS in the last four weeks.
  • KC has covered the spread in six of their last seven games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in nine of the Chiefs' last 12 games.
  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last ten games as road underdogs against AFC opponents.
  • The Ravens starters have covered the spread in 10 of their last 11 games against teams that held a winning record.
  • Baltimore is 68% ATS as a favorite.

Game Total:

  • The Ravens are 6-4 O/U this season at home, averaging 49.1 points per game. During the year, they are 8-9-1 O/U.
  • 5 of their last 6 games have gone OVER the total at home. 61 points were scored on average in the 5 games that went over the total.
  • The only one that didn't was the bad weather game against the Steelers in Week 18 where Tyler Huntley started.
  • Four of the last five games between the Chiefs and Ravens have gone OVER the total points line.
  • The Chiefs are vastly overdue for regression regarding their 6-13 O/U record. Tied with the Panthers for the worst record toward the over this season (29.4%).
  • These teams have averaged 42 points per game.
  • The Ravens rank 2nd in points per game overall and at home (32.1).
  • The Ravens have gone OVER in three of the last 4 games (4 of the last 7).
  • Baltimore has the second-best red zone defense in the NFL. No.1 lowest yards per attempt allowed. 6th best defense on third downs.
  • Chiefs rank second in fewest passing yards per attempt allowed this season. 10th in the red zone. 8th on 3rd down defense.
  • KC's offense is 19th in red zone scoring and 18th in yards per attempt.
  • Four of the Chiefs' last five games have gone UNDER the total points line (5 of the last 7)
  • The last FOUR Chiefs' Road games (with starters) have gone OVER the total. Totals of 44, 46, 48 and 51. Average of over 47 total points.
  • The current O/U is 44.5 points

Overall:

As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. I expect them to get their best yet again from future 2023 MVP Lamar Jackson in another marquee home postseason matchup.

However, in this matchup against a Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs team that has a flawless record as underdogs, I can't recommend the Ravens at over a field goal. It's so easy to see either team win this game, that I'd just take the Chiefs with 4 points.

KC is not the same powerhouse it has been in recent years, but they are starting to get into a groove. They are essentially playing with house money as road underdogs as they did last week, which is the exact spot you want to back them in.

Full disclosure; I do have a ticket for SB Exact outcome of the Ravens beating the 49ers, so Chiefs +4 is a slight hedge on my part. Hence my only slight hesitation toward going full on to the KC ML. But even without that ticket, KC with the points is still my preferred bet from a side’s perspective.

After all, I can let you know for sure the easiest way to ruin your Sunday Football watching experience is to bet AGAINST Patrick Mahomes.

As for the total, the weather does not project to have a big role in the outcome of the contest. Slight chance of wind/rain, but 45 degrees in January for Baltimore is an ideal outcome for all parties. Players, fans and anybody that is sick of weather ruining football games.

And the fact that the Chiefs' last 4 road games have gone OVER, gives me some hesitance that their defense will just lock down Baltimore, who has been an unstoppable force at home.

In their last three road games played, the Chiefs have allowed their three largest yardage outputs at 382 yards (vs GB), 358 yards (vs LV) and last week 368 yards (vs BUF).

Season-long trends with these two teams will encourage bettors to the UNDER, but KC's defensive under-the-radar lapses on the road suggest the over is the sneaky play to make. It's an easy bet on two QBs that can easily take over games with their crazy capabilities.

Furthermore, the Chiefs showed zero answers to stopping the Bills' ground game last week, allowing a season-high 182 rushing yards. Do you think Baltimore - 1st in rushing yards at home - will be able to run the ball? You bet. I bet. We win.

Props:

I am leaning heavily toward the under on Lamar Jackson's passing yardage set at 214.5 passing yards. The Chiefs' defense has held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to sub-200 yard passing yards the last two weeks. No QB their first team defense has faced in the last four weeks has gone for more than 200 yards through the air.

Conversely, I want to take the over on Jackson's rushing yards prop set at 65.5 rushing yards. The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season.

Las week starting running back Isiah Pacheco rushed for nearly 100 yards (97) averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, 1 touchdown, long of 29 yards, while catching his lone target for 14 yards. He played 72% of the snaps.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire had 2 attempts, 31 yards, averaging 15.5 yards per attempt, long of 28 yards.

I expect Pacheco to keep getting fed as a rusher, so I am looking at the over on his 63.5 rushing yards prop this weekend. Pacheco has 89-plus rushing yards in three straight games and 60 or more in 6 of his last 8 games played.

Also love the over on Pacheco's 13.5 rushing attempts. Gone over in three straight games and 7 of his last 8 games. If you can get 14.5 at +100 odds that would be a good bet as well. With the Prop Bet Cheat Sheet set at 16 carries, you need to be all OVER this player prop.

The Ravens' run defense has hardly been a gauntlet. Since Week 6, they have allowed 93 rushing yards per game to RBs at the fourth-highest yards per carry (4.7). 6 of the last 8 RBs they have faced went over 55 rushing yards.

The Ravens' first-team defense has allowed 240-plus yards to 3 of the last 5 QBs they have faced. Lean toward the MORE THAN on Mahomes' 244.5 passing yards prop this week.

Don't love a ton of props in this matchup other than the over on Rashee Rice's 6.5 receptions. The Ravens rank second in the NFL in targets to WRs per game. 8 of the last 11 WRs have gone over their receptions prop versus Baltimore. Rice has 6-plus catches in 6 of his last 9 games played, including 8-plus catches in 3 of his last 4 road games played. Last week: Rice had 4 targets (19%), 4 receptions, 47 yards, averaging 11.8 yards per reception, long of 25 yards. Led the team in WR snaps played at 64%.

My Picks:

San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs Detroit Lions

Sides:

  • The Lions have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
  • They are 1-2 as underdogs straight up this season.
  • The Detroit Lions are 8-5 ATS over their last 13 games.
  • The 49ers are 53% ATS as a favorite. 13-5 overall.
  • The road team has covered the spread in each of the 49ers' last 11 games.
  • The 49ers have not covered the spread in their last 6 home games.
  • SF is 10-3 ATS when they score 23 or more points.
  • They didn’t cover last week. Once versus the Rams and Seahawks as well.

Game Total:

  • The 49ers are 5-4 O/U this season at home, averaging 46.2 points per game.
  • The Lions have scored first in each of their last six games.
  • The 49ers have scored first in 9 of their last 11 home games.
  • Seven of the 49ers’ last eight postseason games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • These teams average under 48.5 points per game.
  • The 49ers starters have scored at least 27 points in 12 of their 17 games played this season.
  • They have averaged 27 points per game at home this season (7th-best).

Overall:

The 49ers have been great as a favorite this season, but their middling and recent ATS record at home (0-6) makes me think they are slightly overrated regarding the point spread. Especially against the Lions, who have been one the most profitable teams against the spread to bet on since the halfway point of the 2021 season.

This year has been no different, with Detroit boasting the No. 1 team ATS at 71%. Good teams win. Great teams cover. I'll run through a wall for Dan Campbell.

Also, the Lions’ first-half offense poses problems, as we know the 49ers are a team that operates at its best as a front-runner. The Lions rank 4th in first-half points scored, on the road (13.9). The Lions have scored first in each of their last six games. Including 3 of their last four road appearances.

Give me the Lions +7 to keep this game within a TD. Only twice has Detroit lost by more than a TD this season. Once in Chicago in December, and the other in Baltimore.

As for the total, I lean toward the under for the reasons I have outlined. The number itself is just massive at 52. Again, this is not because I don't expect yards and points to be scored. But the number is just too big given these teams average 3 points per game LESS than the betting total.

3 of the overs in SF this year have finished with points totals of 51, 51, and 52. And we know the Lions’ offense, while good on the road, just doesn't offer the same firepower when they play away from Ford Field.

Case in point, they are just 5-4 toward the O/U on the road. At home? 7-3.

Props:

I "cheated" finding this prop. Christian McCaffrey under 19.5 rushing attempts. Per the BettingPros' Player Props Streak Tool, CMC has gone under 19.5 carries in seven straight games. And the matchup against an elite Lions run defense projects for an eight straight under.

They have not allowed RB to surpass 70 yards against them ALL SEASON. Fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs this season (60.5). No RB they have faced has surpassed 20 carries against them all season.

Brock Purdy didn't play a great game in the Divisional Round. He completed 23 of 39 passes for 252 yards and threw another pass that should have been easily intercepted in rainy conditions.

Luckily for him and the 49ers' faithful, they made enough plays in the end to beat Green Bay en route to the NFC Championship game where they will face the Lions.

Detroit's pass defense keeps on bleeding yards to QBs. The Lions have allowed an absurd number of passing yards over their last five games. Nearly 375 passing yards per game. Detroit has also allowed the most passing yards to QBs over the last two months. Purdy has at least 252 passing yards in every single game he has played at home this season.

Aiyuk made some critical plays last week but was unable to post strong overall receiving numbers with only 3 catches and 36 yards on 6 targets (17% target share). He still played 100% of the snaps, and will likely be more involved if Deebo Samuel is limited in any way due to his shoulder injury.

Therefore, let's pair Purdy with Brandon Aiyuk's receiving yards prop set at 75.5 receiving yards. Have to imagine a horrible Lions secondary is the BOOM spot for Aiyuk after a few down games. Aiyuk is the primary downfield and air yards threat for the 49ers offense. Regression is coming. The Lions rank 1st in air yards and second in ADOT faced this season. Aiyuk has 3 110-yard games in his last 6 while finishing with fewer than 40 yards in the other 3.

Also, take the over on George Kittle's receiving props in yardage. Kittle has also gone over 60 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games, including 7 of the 49ers' 8 home games played this season.

The 49ers have allowed the 3rd-most completions this season to QBs. The 4 of the last 6 QBs the 49ers have faced have completed 22-plus passes. 8 of 12 have hit the over on their completions prop. You are going to see more passing volume across the board for Jared Goff, especially as road underdogs. Goff has gone for 257-plus yards in six straight games, with 270 or more in five of those contests. On a current streak of four straight overs at 263.5 passing yards.

I also love the UNDER on Goff's rushing yards. Went over last week, because he scrambled for 7 yards against a blitz-heavy defense. It was Goff's first scramble since Week 13. Given that the 49ers don't blitz (third-lowest blitz rate) this is an easy under to SMASH for the immobile Goff. Not to mention, the 7 of the last 9 QB SF has played have gone UNDER their rushing yards projection.

Amon-Ra St. Brown had a "down" game, compiling just 77 yards on 8 catches and 14 targets (33% target share) with 1 TD score versus the Buccaneers.

But note that the 49ers have allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season. Even after the Sun God came up short in the yardage props last week, there is little doubt he won't hit his receptions prop in this spot. He has 7-plus catches in 5 of his last 6 games. Take the MORE THAN 7.5 receptions for Amon-Ra this weekend on Prizepicks.

Jameson Williams saw four targets and 78 air yards, although he played fewer snaps (78% vs 58%) than Josh Reynolds (3 targets, 1 TD) against Tampa Bay. The second-year speedster continues to see up-and-down usage alongside Reynolds.

Still, he hit his receiving yards prop last week, and it's low again at 29.5 receiving yards this week. Going right back to the OVER on this number, given Williams' big-play ability. He has 40 or more yards in 6 of his last 8 games played.

Take the OVER on Gibbs' rushing yards. He has at least 40 rushing yards in every single road game the Lions have played this season. Also gone over 50 yards in 6 of his last 10 games played this season.

But if you are concerned about the negative game script the Lions might face, opt for the MORE THAN on Gibbs' total yardage from scrimmage (75.5) with his receiving yards added to the fold. 40 receiving yards or more in back-to-back games. Love the over at 23.5 receiving yards as well.

The last 6 of the last 10 RBs to face San Fran have gone over their receiving yards. Aaron Jones had 6 targets last week. The 49ers are also allowing the 8th-most yards (37), 6th-most targets (7) and 6th-most catches (5.3) to RBs this season.

Also, the last 4 RBs the 49ers have faced have posted 70 offensive yards from scrimmage.

Still, the 49ers will be a much tougher defense to run on than pass on. Aaron Jones was the first player in the last 51 games to rush for 100 yards against the 49ers run defense. Would expect their run defense to settle in after being gashed by big explosive rushes by Jones in the Divisional Round. Before Jones' performance, the 49ers had allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards to 7 of the last 8 RBs they faced. And the only "over" by James Conner, came on an explosive rush.

That plays more into the strengths of Gibbs, who ranks 3rd in the NFL in breakaway rate at 38%, versus Montgomery, who has one rush of 15 yards since Week 13 (last 8 games). One in his last 110 carries (5%) and last 8 games.

Pound the LESS than on Montgomery's 43.5 rushing yards in the NFC Title Game. It’s a Gibby week folks..not a Monty week.

My Picks:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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