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NFL Betting Primer & Expert Picks: Super Bowl LVIII (49ers vs. Chiefs)

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Let’s dive into the Super Bowl LVIII matchup. Here are my top early picks and player prop bet picks between the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs.

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Super Bowl LVIII Betting Primer 

San Francisco 49ers (-2) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Sides:

  • The Chiefs have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last three games against the 49ers.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last six games as underdogs.
  • KC is 100% ATS as an underdog this season. 4-0 straight up.
  • KC is 5-0 ATS in the last five weeks.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in nine of the Chiefs’ last 13 games.
  • The 49ers are 50% ATS as a favorite. 14-5 overall.
  • The 49ers have not covered the spread in their last 7 home games. Overall, they are 2-5 ATS over their last 7 games.
  • SF is 10-4 ATS when they score 23 or more points.
  • The Chiefs’ defense is superior to the 49ers’ defense in nearly every single statistical category, including yards per play, points per play, completion %, third-down conversion rate, and RZ scoring %.
  • The 49ers’ offense is superior to the Chiefs’ offensive in nearly every single statistical category, including yards per play, points per play, completion %, third-down conversion rate, and RZ scoring %.

Game Total:

  • Eleven of the 49ers’ last 14 postseason games have gone UNDER the total points line.
  • In three of the Chiefs’ last four games, the first score has been a Chiefs Touchdown.
  • These teams average fewer than 43.5 points per game.
  • The Chiefs are vastly overdue for regression regarding their 6-14 O/U record. Worst O/U record in the NFL.
  • Chiefs rank second in fewest passing yards per attempt allowed this season, 10th in the red zone, and 8th on 3rd down defense.
  • KC’s offense is 19th in red zone scoring and 18th in yards per attempt.
  • Five of the Chiefs’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line (6 of the last 8).
  • FOUR of the last 5 Chiefs’ non-home games (with starters) have gone OVER the total. Totals of 44, 46, 48, 51 and 27. Average of over 43.2 total points.
  • The 49ers starters have scored at least 27 points in 13 of their 18 games played this season.
  • The Chiefs have not allowed a team to score 27 points against them all season.

Overall:

KC is not the same powerhouse it has been in recent years, but they are starting to get into a groove. They are essentially playing with house money as road underdogs, as they did the last 2 weeks, which is the exact spot you want to back them in.

And from an Xs and Os standpoint in this matchup, I’d bet that the Chiefs offense-led Patrick Mahomes has a better chance of taking advantage of a lesser 49ers’ defense than a Brock Purdy-led offense facing off against an elite Chiefs defense.

Said this two weeks ago, “I can let you know for sure the easiest way to ruin your Sunday Football watching experience is to bet AGAINST Patrick Mahomes.”

They’ve dominated their opponents throughout the postseason, and the 49ers have barely scooted by the likes of the Lions/Packers. They have consistently failed to meet expectations at home and as favorites this season.

Also, the Chiefs’ first-half offense poses problems, as we know the 49ers are a team that operates at its best as a front-runner. We saw that play out versus Detroit, where they had to crawl back late in the second half.

The Chiefs – amid all their ups and downs – rank 6th in first-half points. In three of the Chiefs’ last four games, the first score has been a Chiefs Touchdown.

My only reservation about backing the Chiefs +2 is that it just seems too easy. I understand “why” the 49ers are favorites; they are the better overall team. But they do not have the better QB. Last year, the Eagles closed at 1-point favorites in the Super Bowl as the better “team” with a somewhat lesser QB. The Chiefs won that Super Bowl outright. Until I see something otherwise, I’ll take my “chance” with Mahomes and Andy Reid with time to prepare until proven otherwise.

As for the total…

In their last four road games played, the Chiefs have allowed their largest yardage outputs at 382 yards (vs. GB), 358 yards (vs. LV), 368 yards (vs. BUF), and 338 (vs. BAL). They limited points to the Ravens because of turnovers, but the yardage suggested there were points left on the table. The game opened up quickly to a 14-7 start, just to sputter out in the second half of the contest.

Still, the KC defense is legitimate as they come, and I think it will pose REAL problems for the 49ers offense. Considering KC doesn’t play to win shootouts – they have lost four of the five games they have allowed with 21-plus points; a Chiefs W is likely accompanied by an under at 47.5. They are undefeated when they hold an opponent to 17 or fewer points.

Props

Check out my full article for all props-related content for Super Bowl 58. This includes not just player props, but also anytime TD bets and 1st TD scorer bets.

Brock Purdy

I am leaning heavily toward the under on Purdy‘s passing yardage set at 247.5 passing yards. The Chiefs’ pass defense has held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to sub-200 yard passing yards in two of the last three weeks. Only one QB their first team defense has faced in the last five weeks has gone for over 200 yards through the air. Seven of the last 10 QBs they have faced have gone UNDER their projected passing yards. Since Week 14, they have allowed two QBs to go over 200 passing yards. Purdy has only tossed 250 yards thrice away from home this season.

Purdy added a new dimension to the running game in the NFC Championship Game, notching 48 yards on just five carries, highlighting his mobility and ability to escape pressure. The 49ers QB has 14 or more rushing yards in both of his postseason starts, so I lean toward the OVER on his 12.5 rushing yards prop. The projections have Purdy slated for a whopping 13.4 rushing yards for the Super Bowl in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

The Chiefs have faced the most rushing attempts and red-zone touches from QBs this season. They have also allowed three of the last four QBs they have faced to go OVER their rushing yardage props, including 25 rushing yards at least to each opposing QB.

Patrick Mahomes

Mahomes added mobility on the ground with six carries, contributing 15 yards to the Chiefs’ rushing total, which accumulated to 89 yards across 32 attempts versus the Baltimore Ravens. Many expect Mahomes to soar over his rushing yards total in the Super Bowl, but as pointed out last week, the 49ers don’t allow a ton of rushing production to QBs.

Given that the 49ers don’t blitz (third-lowest blitz rate), this is an easy under to SMASH for the Mahomes. Eight of the last 10 QBs SF has played have gone UNDER their rushing yards projection. Mahomes is under 25.5 rushing yards in his last two playoff games. He’s also gone under in five of his last seven postseason games played.

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey led the 49ers ground game with 20 carries for 90 yards, finding the end zone twice while showcasing his versatility and power. He also went for 4-42 through the air on five targets. The over on McCaffrey’s rushing yardage at 89.5 yards might be the obvious/safest wager to make with the 49ers offensive personnel. Gone over in eight of his last 10 games played. In one game, he didn’t finish because of an injury.

Even though the Ravens inexplicitly didn’t run on the Chiefs – come on, Todd Monken – I expect run CMC to be at the forefront of the 49ers’ offensive attack after they were gashed by Buffalo to the tune of 182 rushing yards a few weeks back.

Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco carried the ball 24 times on a 79% snap share, grinding out 68 hard-fought yards and punching in a touchdown, showcasing his resilience against a tough defensive line. I expect Pacheco to keep getting fed as a rusher, so I am looking at the over on his 67.5 rushing yards prop for SB Sunday. Pacheco has 89-plus rushing yards in three of his last four games and 60 or more in seven of his last nine games played.

Still, he will have to rip off some explosive runs against a defense that has been traditionally stout versus the run (just not recently). Over the last two weeks, the 49ers have allowed over 100 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs between Aaron Jones and David Montgomery.

Before these back-breaking run-defense performances, the 49ers had allowed fewer than 50 rushing yards to seven of the last eight RBs they faced. And the only “over” by James Conner came on an explosive rush.

But given how leaky they have been – and how often the team is force-feeding Pacheco – the OVER is the move on the Chiefs RBs for Super Bowl 58. Pacheco has gone over 16.5 carries in three of his last four games and half of his last 10 contests.

I also love Pacheco’s potential as a receiver.  In the AFC Championship Game, the scrappy RB also caught all four of his targets for 14 yards. The last seven of the last 11 RBs to face San Fran have gone over their receiving yards. Aaron Jones had six targets two weeks ago. Jahmyr Gibbs had six targets last week. The 49ers are also allowing the 8th-most yards (37), 3rd-most targets (7.9), and 6th-most catches (5.3) to RBs this season. Also, the last five RBs the 49ers have faced have posted at least 70 offensive yards from scrimmage.

Give me ALL the Pacheco OVERs on his receiving yards (17.5) and yards from scrimmage (89.5), with 82-plus yards from scrimmage in four straight games and 14 receiving yards in back-to-back games. The best bet on Pacheco is to take the OVER on his fantasy points projection set at 15 points on PrizePicks to capture all the upside has to offer as the focal point in this offense. He has gone OVER 15 fantasy points in four straight games.

Travis Kelce

Mahomes’ connection with tight end Travis Kelce was particularly effective in the ACF Championship Game, as Kelce reeled in all 11 targets (30% target share) thrown his way, amassing 116 yards and scoring the team’s lone receiving touchdown with 10 catches in the first half alone.

Kelce is on a straight heater, with three straight games of 70-plus yards. Given how great and consistent he is in the postseason, it’s hard to imagine he’s not going for OVER 72.5 receiving yards in his fourth straight game in the Super Bowl. He has 12 straight playoff games he has played with at least 71 receiving yards and has saved his best for last.

Also LOVE Kelce to win SB MVP. The last four UNDERs in the Super Bowl have been in games with QBs not winning the MVP award. If the under hits – which I like in this game – chances are the QB will not win MVP. It’s a narrative award and we don’t have to go far to find narratives backing Kelce. It’s Kelce’s potential last game with him rumored to be mulling retirement, also can make the case as the greatest TE of all time. Kelce would be the first tight end to ever take home the award. Again, for the record books. Mahomes already has two SB MVPs…Swifties will be pushing for Kelce to win MVP and they make up 20% of the vote.

The Tom Brady era saw two WRs win SB MVP. I just don’t think Mahomes needs or will put up a crazy statistical game. He has one game this season (vs the Chargers) with 300-plus yards and 3 TDs. Just two games with 3 TD passes. If Kelce goes for 100 and a TD in a lower-scoring so-so game from Mahomes – where the Chiefs defense dominates – Kelce can win this award at 17-1 odds. 12 straight playoff games he has played with at least 71 receiving yards. Also scored 13 TDs over that span.

George Kittle

The 49ers’ offense was characterized by its efficiency and ability to spread the ball around, with minimal contributions from Kyle Juszczyk (61% snap share) and George Kittle, who combined for 60 yards on four receptions. Kittle was quiet with Deebo Samuel as the focus of the passing game plan, going just 2 for 27 on three targets, but he still played 97% of the snaps. Kittle has also gone over 60 receiving yards in seven of his last 11 games, including seven of the 49ers’ nine home games played this season. The Chiefs rank 8th in targets to TEs this season. I’ll buy the dip on the 49ers’ tight end to step up in the Super Bowl. Over 49.5 receiving yards.

Rashee Rice

The Chiefs’ receiving corps showed depth with contributions from rookie Rashee Rice, who saw nine targets, a 25% target share, and eight catches for 46 yards. We nailed the OVER on Rashee Rice’s 6.5 receptions prop last week, so we are going directly back to it. Rice has 6-plus catches in seven of his last 10 games played, including 8-plus catches in four of his last five road games played. Note that the 49ers have allowed the 5th-most catches to WRs this season, and seven of the last 10 WRs they have faced have gone OVER their reception total. They are a volume-passing defense, so expect Rice to get peppered with targets. Just don’t forget the salt.

Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk made the most of his opportunities in the NFC Championship Game, turning three receptions into 68 yards, including a long of 51 yards for a touchdown, demonstrating his big-play capability and focus on a ball that was tipped in the air. He saw eight targets for a 27% target share with a whopping 134 air yards.

Aiyuk is always a candidate to post huge yardage totals at any point, but he doesn’t always rack up a ton of receptions. He has only caught 3 passes for three straight weeks, and the Chiefs have allowed the 6th-fewest completions to WRs this season. I hate taking UNDERs on Aiyuk, but he’s more likely to beat us in yardage than total catches.

Deebo Samuel

The No. 1 bet in the BettingPros Prop Cheat Sheet for Super Bowl 58? Deebo Samuel to finish with UNDER 15.5 rushing yards. Just two overs Samuel has hit in his last 10 games played. Projections have him listed at 13.4 rushing yards. FanDuel has the number listed at 17.5 rushing yards. And take the OVER on Deebo Samuel’s 58.5 receiving yards.

My Picks:

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