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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 10)

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Introducing the Week 10 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m excited to serve as your trusted guide through the upcoming NFL action. This week, we’ll explore each game on the Week 10 slate, offering expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and intriguing player props that have the potential to enhance your single-game parlays. Please note that early in the week, player props might be limited to platforms like Underdog and PrizePicks until traditional sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday. I’ll continue to add more props as I see fit/value leading up to Sunday, so be sure to come back close to kick-off for all the goodness in the player props market.

But before we dive into the Week 10 matchups, let’s pause for a moment to reflect on the Week 9 performances. Remember 9 weeks in, we were sitting just above .500 over halfway through the season.

Below is the official record on the recommended picks from Week 9 (not including Thursday night football). Big week in the player props department, along with the totals. Spreads were a struggle – as they tend to be most weeks. As always, when in doubt…bet the total.

But still finished in the green overall at 60%. Let’s roll the momentum into Week 10.

Week 9

  • Spread: 5-6
  • Totals: 9-5-1
  • Player Props: 13-7

Overall: 27-18 (60%)

2023 season

  • Spread: 52-57 (48%)
  • Totals: 71-54 (57%)
  • Player Props: 247-124 (50%)
  • ML: 4-4

Overall: 247-235 (51%)

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NFL Betting Primer: Week 10

As featured over the last 2 weeks, I will feature my top bets listed at the top between underdogs, favorites and O/Us. Consider it a quick-hitting guide to access my top plays.

Top favorites:

  • Lions -3
  • 49ers -3
  • Steelers -3
  • Seahawks – 6
  • Bengals -6.5
  • Ravens – 6

Top underdogs:

  • Cardinals +1.5
  • Titans +1.5
  • Vikings +2.5

Top totals:

  • CLE/BAL under 38.5
  • BUF/DEN under 47
  • NYG/DAL under 38.5
  • LV/NYJ under 36.5
  • NE/IND over 43
  • PIT/GB first half under 19.5 (gametotal under under 39)
  • ARI/ATL over 43
  • JAC/SF under 45.5

New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

My New England Patriots have the worst record ATS in the AFC. Second worst in the NFL (22%) at 2-7. The Colts are 5-4 ATS (57%). Indy is also 3-1 on the road, to New England’s 1-3 road record.

New England has increased their offensive output dramatically over the last few weeks. The OL is healthy and that has given Mac Jones time in the pocket. Versus the Washington Commanders, he was pressured on just 21% of dropbacks and threw for 300-plus air yards. But the wide receivers – Tyquan Thornton and Jalen Reagor – let him down constantly.  Bet the under on Jalen Reagor’s receiving yards prop? You bet. Three straight unders when he has played the last few weeks. After an abysmal showing on Sunday, I’d be shocked if his snaps on offense were not reduced.

Even so, their offense remains strong in the red zone – in the cases that they can get there. 4th in red-zone conversion rate this season.

The Colts have a below-average pressure unit and the league’s second-worst red zone defense over the last three weeks (24th on the season). On the year, they are tied for allowing the most explosive plays on defense.

Part of the overall raw improvement from the Patriots’ offense has been because their defense has been downright awful, forcing the offense to be more aggressive.

The Pats’ defense has allowed nearly 26 points per game in their last five contests. Last three games: Third-to-last in yards per game (387).

The Patriots games have gone OVER in two of their last three games, with last week coming extremely close. But key drops/turnovers by both teams had the score at 37 points…just under the 40-point threshold. And as bad as the Patriots have been, their average total game points scored has been 40.3 points.

Therefore, it looks like a potential spot where the Patriots’ offense can take advantage versus an exploitable Colts defense. Last three games: 7th in yards and last in points per game on defense (30).

And I think the Colts can find equal success on their side offensive of the ball. Indianapolis is an OVER machine. The Colts are 6-3 toward the OVER this year with their first two “unders” coming in Gardner Minshew’s first start in a rainy game in Baltimore and in the Titans matchup where Anthony Richardson got knocked out early. The last under came last week versus the Panthers.

Still, all 3 games ended with 39-plus points scored.

All the other six games they have played have gone over the total because of the chaotic nature of Minshew (first in turnover-worthy plays) in an offense that has benefited from big plays that have generated points on both sides.

Last week was an outlier from a big-play rate for Indy, as they had zero plays of 20-plus yards on offense. The Patriots gave up 7 last week. The Commanders couldn’t be stopped on third-and-long.

Leaning toward the OVER. Narrowly missed the over last week. But given how turnover-worthy prone BOTH quarterbacks are – first and second in turnover-worthy plays this season – we could easily see some defensive TDs and short fields to aid in total scoring. Germany FINALLY gets the shootout they deserved to see last week.

My Picks:

  • Over 43
  • Colts -1.5

My Props: 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are 2-4 as underdogs this season. And they have faced the 3rd-easiest strength of schedule. They are 3-5 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) and Rams (led by Brett Rypien). They willed their way to a 13-3 lead midway through the fourth quarter last week.

Against a fierce Steelers defensive front, Green Bay is going to run into issues. Jordan Love has been the third-least pressured QB this season…and it hasn’t made much of a difference. Under duress this season, Love is 31st in completion rate, 21st in yards per attempt, 30th in passer rating and 26th in PFF passing grade.

The Steelers have covered the spread in seven of their last 8 games against teams that held a losing record. Also covered in four of their last 5 as home favorites. Pittsburgh has also won all its games after leading at halftime, and the Packers have the league’s worst first-half offense. Pittsburgh is equally slow at scoring early (4th-worst). More to come here. First. Half. Unders.

Each of the Steelers’ last six games has gone UNDER the total points line. 7-1 under MACHINES. 4-1 under at home this season.

We know that the Steelers aren’t a great 5-3 team. They have willed their way to wins with defense and turnovers. They’ve created turnovers at just the right time to beat teams like the Browns, Raiders, Rams, Ravens and Titans despite being outgained in yardage in “Every Single Game” they have played this season.

But as home favorites versus a fraudulent Packers team that is 1-3 on the road, we need to be backing the Steel Curtain.

Pittsburgh is a printing press of unders as is Green Bay which is 5-3 toward the under this year. On a current streak of four straight unders with no game surpassing 36 points. These teams have combined for an average of 38.5 points this season. Bet the full game under and the first half under.

Last three weeks, these teams have ranked 32nd and 31st in first-half points scored.

For props, it’s time to ride the Jaylen Warren train. Over on 7.5 rushing attempts against a defense that ranks third in run rate faced this season. Warren saw a season-high 11 carries last week as the team looks to get him more involved. He is projected for nine carries in the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet.

Bet the over on Christian Watson’s receiving yards prop which is set at an egregiously low number of 36.5. The Steelers are allowing the league’s second-highest explosive pass play rate. Watson caught a deep ball last week and was the air yards leader but only drew 2 targets. He suffered an injury during the game but should be fine for Week 10. It is hard to argue with the potential blow-up spot he’s against a beatable Steelers secondary.

George Pickens UNDER 3.5 receptions. Last week, he ended with just 2 receptions on 5 targets for -1 yards (17% Target share). Came close to scoring but was ruled out of bounds (2 red-zone targets). He remains tough to trust with Diontae Johnson the alpha target earner in the offense. Fantasy finishes with DJ in the lineup: WR51, WR19, WR45 and WR103. 17% target share averaging 3.25 catches per contest. The Packers are a tougher matchup for opposing WRs. 7th-best versus perimeter WRs this season and overall. Pickens owns the third-worst catch rate (53%) and 6th-worst catchable target rate this season (67%).

My Picks:

  • Under 39
  • First half under 19.5
  • Steelers -3.0

My Props: 

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints (-3)

These 2 teams are a combined 4-14 toward the under this season. The only NFC teams that are worse ATS than the Saints (2-6-1): the Panthers and Buccaneers. And that is despite the Saints having the EASIEST schedule through the first 10 weeks of the season. Simply put, they are overrated. 19% cover rate as favorite this season.

The Saints alone own a 6-2-1 record toward the under this year – the overs coming in their 2 of their 3 games. They have averaged just 40.7 points in games played this season.

Derek Carr will face a blitz-heavy Vikings defense that could potentially pose problems for him. Against the blitz, Carr has been hit-or-miss. A few big plays combined with a few interceptions. 5 turnover-worthy plays and 7 big-time throws per PFF. Likely a spot where Rashid Shaheed can deliver at least one splash play. However, it won’t be enough to vault this game to go over the projected total.

As for the sides, I am firmly backing this plucky Joshua Dobbs-led squad. We saw Dobbs create a miracle last week for the Vikings, and I love him in this spot versus a Saints defense that ranks 3rd in most rushing yards allowed to QBs. They struggled to continue mobile QBs and that will give the Vikings a big boost with Dobbs under center – who ranks second among all QBs in rushing yards. Bet the over on his rushing yards and attempts this week.

Dobbs started 3-0 versus the spread as a member of the Cardinals with no expectations. Look for his new streak ATS to continue with upgraded personnel around him at home, where he is currently 4-1 ATS. Ride the Vikings’ impromptu 4-game winning streak.

Rashid Shaheed leads the team in fantasy points per route run versus zone coverage (0.35) per PFF. He’s their primary zone beater. Vikings run mostly zone coverage (top-10 rate). Vikings rank third in yards per game to opposing No. 3 WRs. 4th in targets. Also, in the last two games Shaheed has gone off. Road games in a dome. Rinse and repeat.

My Picks:

  • Under 41
  • Vikings +3

My Props:

Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5) vs. Houston Texans

The Bengals are 4-2 as a favorite this season despite having faced the league’s most difficult schedule. Winners of four straight since the team has gotten a healthy Joe Burrow back in the starting lineup.

Cincy ranks 28th defending on third downs. Houston ranks 8th on offense on 3rd downs. The Bengals are also 11th overall in DVOA despite the challenging schedule. Bad against the run, but the Texans cannot run the ball with their current personnel.

The Texans have also not been nearly as good on the road (1-3) versus at home.

And as good as C.J. Stroud has been – fully as advertised coming out as a top prospect at Ohio State – the team has scored just 20-plus points once on the road this season.

Last week was the perfect storm for Stroud to shred against the pass-funnel/blitz-heavy Buccaneers’ defense. This will be a bigger challenge against a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

And for that reason, I side with the Bengals.

Also, lean toward the under, but it’s probably more of a shy-away spot. I say that because the Bengals have been victims of major explosive plays allowing the third-most explosive plays on defense this season. The Texans have gone under in four of their last six games, which featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game (aside from Tampa Bay). Hence, my hesitation.

But the number itself at 48 is just too high, when Bills-Bengals came under that number a week ago. The injuries to the Bengals WRs also favor the under as well. Ja’Marr Chase is banged up, while Tee Higgins has already been ruled out (listed as week-to-week). Nico Collins is also hurt and has not practiced as of this writing.

Joe Mixon has rushed for 68-plus yards twice in 2023. 75% of his game he has FLOWN under this rushing projection. The Texans are allowing the league’s third-lowest yards per carry (3.5) overall and just 3.3 yards per carry to RBs this season (77.3 per game).

My Picks:

  • Bengals -6.5
  • Under 47 

My Props:

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) vs. Cleveland Browns

Baltimore has covered their last six of 7 games against a team with a winning record. I pointed out last week that the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. Versus bad teams – like what we saw 2 weeks ago versus the Cardinals – they tend to play with less urgency and composure.

The Ravens are also 6-3 toward the under. And it’s been mostly against bad QBs. Outside the dominant performance versus Jared Goff/Geno Smith at home, the Ravens have faced two rookie QBs making their first starts, an injured Joe Burrow, another backup QB in Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs.

Simply put, when they don’t fear an opposing QB, the Ravens tend to go under the game total. Do they fear Deshaun Watson? Probably not.

Case in point, nine of the Ravens’ last 10 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line. Ten of the last 11 Ravens’ home games have gone under the total.

The Browns’ elite defense needs no introduction and just further fuels the under. Their last 7 of the last 8 games have gone under the total.

They have also flopped following wins, failing to cover the spread in each of their last 7 games following a win.

I side with the under as primary bet here, as this Ravens team has played arguably the best batch of football, we have seen across the NFL…and the unders are consistently hitting. With a challenge like Cleveland, we can easily see them taking a step or two back production-wise.

I know some might reference the Ravens’ earlier win against the Browns this year as a reason to be bearish on the low total as the Ravens dominated 28-3. However, Dorian Thompson-Robinson started for the Ravens. And the Ravens offense was not good in that game despite the final score. That’s because all of HALF of their scoring drives started on the Browns’ side of the field. They had two legitimate TD drives, to go along with 7 punts. 6 three-and-outs.

Fade the sides in what will likely be a down-to-the-wire AFC North slugfest and just take the under.

A lot of props I like in this spot, but I want to call out Lamar Jackson’s completions prop at 18.5. Gone over in 6 of 9 games. He leads the NFL with a career-high 71.5% completion percentage.

My Picks:

  • Under 38.5
  • Ravens -6.5

My Props:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

The Titans have lost each of their last 7 road games (8 in road or neutral sites). It’s a team that tends to underperform on the road because bad offensive lines don’t travel. The Buccaneers’ defensive strengths are in their ability to stop the run.

The matchup is going to come down to how Will Levis can perform against an atrocious Buccaneers secondary, that was gashed by a rookie QB a week ago. The Titans have shown a willingness to let Levis uncork the ball downfield, while also mixing in safer short floors around the line of scrimmage. His first start was completely boom-or-bust, while last week was probably a better projector of a “normal” game for the Titans’ first-year QB.

In his first start, Levis orchestrated an offense that only converted 5 third downs during the entire game. They punted 8 times. In his second start versus the Steelers, they only punted three times with one three-and-out. They scored in each of the first three quarters before coming up just short at the end of the game.

Again, the big plays and chunk yardage are helping the Titans avoid third down because this is an area that they have struggled with. Just 3 first down conversions in Week 9. But the Buccaneers are a defense that cannot stop teams in between the 20s. 31st in third-down conversion rate.

Tampa has also struggled recently having dropped back-to-back games at home and 4 straight games since coming off their bye week. They are also riding an 8-game streak losing ATS following a straight-up loss.

As for the totals, you must back the under. Tampa Bay is 2nd in red zone defense, while the Titans rank 3rd. Unless it’s massive, big plays creating scores – like last week – this game should go under. My concern being is that both of these secondaries are bad/injured, so explosive pass plays could potentially lead to an over.

Each of the Titans’ last six road games has gone under the projected total (6-2 overall). Before last week, Tampa Bay had gone with 5 straight unders.

These teams seem to be going in different directions. Tampa Bay is spiraling after a strong start, while the Titans are excited about their future with Levis after two strong outings in his NFL career. I think Week 10 marks his third strong outing, with the coaches trusting him to take advantage of a weak secondary with extra days to prepare. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in the most explosive passing plays allowed per game.

It’s worth noting that the Titans have played through the third toughest schedule up to this point, so that has played into their overall record.

The Buccaneers allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to slot WRs. The Titans rank fifth in that category. Nice bounce-back spot for Chris Godwin. Comparable WRs versus the Titans have gone a perfect 8/8 toward the over on their receptions props this season. The Buccaneers have also been horrible versus tight ends. But instead, I will opt for Titans slot wide receiver, Kyle Philips. Over 2.5 receptions AND 19. 5 receiving yards. 4 catches in back-to-back games. Treylon Burks will likely miss the game with a concussion. Last two weeks, Philips boasts a 22% target rate per route run.

My Picks:

  • Titans +2.5
  • Under 39

My Props:

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The Jaguars are 75% ATS this season, tied for the best in the NFL with the Lions. They have won their last 8 of 9 games against teams with a winning record. 5-0 ATS and straight up over their last five games.

Jacksonville is strong versus the run: Top-3 in the fewest rushing yards per game. No. 1 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs (56.1).

The Jaguars’ defense doesn’t allow many big plays – No. 1 fewest overall explosive plays allowed per game. SF ranks third in this category.

So, although the 49ers have gone over their total in 4 of their last 5 games, I lean toward the under with two defenses that limit big plays going head-to-head. SF has also not gone over its projected total in back-to-back road games.

Average total points between these two teams this season: 44.2

As for the sides, this looks like a spot to buy low on the 49ers. Remember the 49ers were dealing with all sorts of injuries during their three-game skid. They needed this bye week to get healthy and to get back to their dominant selves. The Jaguars were on hot streak, and might have cooled off during the bye.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are BY FAR the toughest matchup the Jags have drawn this season.

On the props side, I am backing overs in terms of the passing game. Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured). Brock Purdy has thrown for 244.5-plus passing yards in 62.5% of his game this season.

Both teams should face a lot of raw passing attempts, with both units facing top-3 pass rates on defense this season. The Jaguars are allowing most fantasy points per game to opposing perimeter WRs, 2nd? The 49ers.

My Picks:

  • 49ers -3
  • Under 45.5

My Props:

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Detroit Lions (-3)

My first early bet for Week 10 was confidently placed on the Lions at -1.5. Viewed as a value proposition with Detroit coming off a bye week, playing LA on a short week. The line has since moved to Lions -3, which I still think is fair value (although the push comes into play which is frustrating).

Detroit has been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 23-8 (74%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense. They’ve covered in their last 15 of 18 games (83%). Detroit has covered as a favorite in 83% of their games this season.

The Lions’ offensive line is ranked No. 3 in PFF pass-blocking and is setting up Jared Goff for success every single week.

Meanwhile, Justin Herbert has just not looked right as the Chargers offense looks all out of sync. Each of the Chargers last six games have gone UNDER the projected total.

That will be problematic versus a fierce Lions defense that is generating the 9th-highest pressure rate.

The Lions have also won their last four of five road games, despite the narrative that Goff can’t produce on the road. Spoiler, playing inside a Los Angeles dome – where there may be more Goff fans than Herbert fans – is hardly any sort of road disadvantage for the Lions.

Even if the Chargers’ newfound elite run defense can slow down David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs, I am confident that Goff can deliver from the pocket to a vast array of pass-catchers against a poor Chargers pass defense.

The Charges have faced the 3rd-most red-zone trips per game on defense this season. They rank 30th in passing yards per attempt allowed on defense. Do not be fooled by the back-to-back wins for LA against the lowly Bears and Jets.

Take the Lions.

Likely a shy away spot from the total at a bloated 48.5. Value is definitely in the under – these teams have averaged 46.5 total points in games played this season – but heavy pass-game scripts from both sides could easily vault this number in a big way. Both are top-6 in pass play rate faced on defense this season.

Every QB the Chargers have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards prop. 5 of 7 have gone over their passing attempts prop. I like the overs for both on Jared Goff.

Austin Ekeler has struggled to run the football this year. He has finished under 51.5 rushing yards in four straight games since returning from his injury. And Week 10 doesn’t seem to be much better. Lions are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (57.6) to opposing RBs. Only two RBs they have faced this year have surpassed 60 yards on the ground against them.

My Picks:

  • Lions -3

My Props:

Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2)

Kyler Murray is slated to get the start for the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10. Murray is less than a year removed from a torn ACL injury that forced him to miss the end of the 2022 season and the first half of the 2023 season.

But let’s not forget that Murray was 4-8 as a starter last season. 6-6 ATS. And his presence does nothing to elevate the play of his atrocious defense. On the year, Arizona’s defense ranks 31st in total DVOA, 31st versus the pass and 30th versus the run. Expect the Falcons offense to run WILD over the Cardinals.

At quarterback, Taylor Heinicke will draw his second start of the season. The Falcons couldn’t close the door on the Vikings a week ago, despite playing a third-string QB who had spent just days with the offense. It was shocking considering how the Falcons have been more on the positive side of one-score/possession games than Minnesota.

Overall, it’s not a great look for their defense which has regressed tremendously in recent weeks. The absence of Grady Jarrett cannot be understated. Last 3 games, Atlanta’s defense has been gashed by Tampa Bay, Tennessee and Minnesota. 24 points per game and 355 yards per game.

Since the start of last season, Heinicke is 5-4-1 against the spread, and 5-4-1 straight up. 2 games they didn’t win, or cover came against their division rival Giants (aside from last week).

Atlanta has also been trending in the wrong direction as well. The Falcons are on a five-game streak of failing to cover the spread in games they are favored in.

The only reason the Cardinals aren’t favorites here is because of the question marks surrounding Murray. How effective can he be after the long layoff? And although I feel there will be some rust to knock off, I am not sure a 75% Murray is 1.5 points worse than Heinicke playing on the road.

Give me the Cardinals at home with the points. The Cardinals are 3-1 ATS at home this season.

As for the total…Atlanta is 6-3 toward the under this season, while Arizona is 5-4 toward the over.

Every game played in Glendale Arizona has gone OVER the total (4-0). Give me the over between two horrible defenses in a sneaky shootout in the desert.

The projection for Kyler Murray rests at 221 passing yards in our database. When the lines come out, jump on the over if the lines are lower. The same for the receiving props on Marquise Brown and Trey McBride. McBride had 1 target and 1 catch for 12 yards in the first half of last week with Clayton Tune at QB. The second-year tight end ended with 3 for 22 on 5 targets (25% Target share). Ran a route on 63% of dropbacks while playing 69% of the snaps. Still showed strong target usage and he has a much better matchup versus the Falcons in Week 10. Falcons are allowing the most catches and second-most targets to TEs this season.

Aside from last week, the Cardinals had allowed a RB to rush for 59-plus yards in every single game. Bet the over on Bijan Robinson.

And bet the over on his No. 1 WR, Drake London. London has gone over 46.5 receiving yards in four straight games. The Cardinals defense has allowed opposing No. 1 WRs to go OVER their requisite receiving yardage props in 9 of 9 games this season. Bet the over on his yardage and receptions totals.

My Picks:

  • Cardinals +2
  • Over 43.5

My Props:

Seattle Seahawks (-6) vs. Washington Commanders

The Commanders defense is not good. They traded away their two best pass-rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young, before the trade deadline. And that showed up versus the Patriots in Week 9, when they sacked Mac Jones zero times as Week 9’s 3rd-least pressured QB. Any QB with actual weapons would have diced up the Commanders defense. Insert the Seattle Seahawks and their talented trio of wideouts.

The narrative overall is down on Geno Smith. But in the last two weeks, he has faced the league’s No. 1 and No. 2 ranked pass defenses per DVOA. The week before that versus Arizona, Smith also underwhelmed. But again, divisional matchup, things can get weird. Also, no DK Metcalf.

The Lions’ status as one of the best teams in the NFL, laying an egg versus the Ravens, tells us more about the juggernaut that Baltimore’s defense is. Do not hold that against Seattle.

Heading into last week’s game against Baltimore, I was concerned. The fact that the Seahawks’ defense gave up so much production to the Browns led by PJ Walker – 385 total yards two weeks ago – had me concerned they might not hold up versus the Ravens on the road. They did not, as the Ravens overpowered them, just like they did to the Lions.

But this is a matchup-driven league. The Washington defense is the opposite of Baltimore.

Therefore, I like the Seahawks as six-point favorites at home. Since Week 2, Seattle has been 4-2-1 ATS and a 2-0-1 ATS at home. Big bounce-back spot for Geno Smith and this passing game.

I also like the Seattle defense more in this spot. Their pass defense has improved dramatically since the start of the year, with their cornerbacks healthy on the outside. After allowing 300-plus passing yards in three straight games to open the year…they have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in five straight games. And even after they got gashed on the ground last week, they have been one of the most formidable run defenses all season. That should force the already pass-happy Commanders to throw even more, which can work in Seattle’s favor at home. Favorites have won each of the last 6 Seahawks games.

When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 4 games they have covered, just 2 turnovers on offense.

As for the total, five of the Seahawks’ last six home games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Commanders have gone under the total points line in three straight road games. Think the line at 45.5 is spot on, so likely a spot I’ll shy away from. But when in doubt, bet the under at 45.5 points.

9/9 WR1s have hit the over on their receiving yardage prop versus the Commanders. The DK Metcalf explosion game is coming. Conversely, I am strongly fading Tyler Lockett. The guy has been on the injury report all year with a hamstring injury. He’s gone over 59.5 receiving yards just twice this season (25%).

My Picks:

  • Seahawks -6

My Props:

Dallas Cowboys (-17.5) vs. New York Giants

I’ll keep this brief because there are better games to watch/bet on this weekend. Just throw a Dallas ML into all your parlays.

Joking aside, I could seriously side with New York +16.5 if they were not playing on the road. Dallas has been lights out at home, and that should continue here. They’ve covered in six of their last 7 as favorites and are winners of 11 straight home games. The favorites have covered the spread in 9 of the Cowboys’ last 10 games.

The Giants have played in seven straight unders. 8-1 overall toward the under. Dallas has gone 2-1 toward the under at home. Two were blow-out wins, like how this game projects.

I’ll take the under at 38.5 and forego the Tommy DeVito sweat, hoping he keeps this game close.

Because the Giants’ defense remains underrated. I’d feel great about the Giants at +16+5 if I could acknowledge their offense wouldn’t give short fields/turnovers to Dallas.

New York has previously shut down teams like the Bills/Commanders in recent weeks. They should be able to do enough to limit Dallas’ offense to make them fail hitting the over by themselves.

My Picks:

  • Under 39

Las Vegas Raiders vs. New York Jets (-1)

The Raiders cannot stop the run – 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game to RBs – and that is going to be an issue against Gang Green and their star RB, Breece Hall.

Offensively, Aidan O’Connell is going to run into MAJOR issues against the Jets defense. Their defense has been lights out, holding opponents to the league’s second-lowest yards per attempt. And that’s being against the league’s 6th-most difficult schedule featuring QBs such as Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert.

The Raiders are 7-2 toward the under. 4-0 toward the under at home. I presume they go run-heavy with a rookie QB – 12% run rate over expectation last week – with New York’s bigger weakness against the run. 4th in pass defense DVOA compared to 21st in run defense DVOA.

The Jets are 5-3 toward the under this season.

Bet the under with offenses that want to run the football. The Jets will feed Hall and the Raiders will feed Jacobs. Great for ball control and grinding out wins. But not for consistently hitting overs.

As for sides, here are the trends. The home team has won each of the Raiders’ last six games. LV has been a much better team at home overall – 3-1 overall – and they’ve covered a three-point spread or less in 3 straight home games. However, they were favored in all those contests. LV has been favored in every single home this season aside from this spot.

They are 1-3 as underdogs this season. New York is 1-0 as favorites this season. Again, likely a shy-away spot with such a close spread – just bet the under – but I’ll land with Jets’ elite defense. The Raiders have not beaten any team with a winning record as they have faced the league’s fifth-easiest schedule thus far. New York has faced a gauntlet – 6th-toughest – to start the year and has been able to come out with a .500 record through 9 weeks with Zach Wilson at QB. They are the better team.

My Picks:

  • Under 36.5
  • Jets -1

My Props:

Buffalo Bills (-7.5) vs. Denver Broncos 

The Broncos have traditionally been a team to “fade” this season. 2-5-1 versus the spread. 3-5 straight up. The only team Denver has looked impressive against thus far has been the Kansas City Chiefs, limiting their offense twice over three weeks.

Denver’s defense opened the gates as an overmachine, but it’s changed in recent weeks with the under-hitting in their last 3 games. Their defense has played better than out they started the season. Some of that can be based on just general regression – they couldn’t keep up the historically bad pace – but it needs to be noted that it’s not the same rollover unit it was to start. Specifically, they have been better against the run, which was their big issue at the start of the year.

The Broncos offense has come down to earth as well, with the team totaling fewer than 200 passing yards in four straight games.

Buffalo is crumbling before our eyes. 0-5 ATS in their last five games. They are 1-4 straight up and ATS on the road/neutral sites this season.

Buffalo has either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents’ doors off this season. Their two strongest offensive outputs have come at home. 4-0 overall at home and 2-2 ATS. Along with back-to-back unders.

Josh Allen – despite the narrative that he is super careless with the ball – has two turnover-worthy plays over the team’s last six games. Buffalo also boasts the third-best red-zone offense this season (69%).

Ultimately, I love the under here at a bloated 47 number. It’s way too high. Bills’ defense improved dramatically in the final three quarters versus Cincinnati in Week 9 forcing that game to go under. And the Broncos’ improved defense is no fluke, especially with their ability to hone in on No. 1 weapons. I expect Denver to throw everything at stopping Stefon Diggs, and that will make things tough on the Bills’ offense.

Bet another prime time under on MNF.

With Javonte Williams healthy, I expect more of a running game at the forefront of the road. Like the over on his rushing prop, while taking the under on Sutton’s receiving yards line at 46.5. He’s gone under this number in 62.5% of his games just once since Week 4.

My Picks:

  • Under 46.5

My Props:

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