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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 11)

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Introducing the Week 11 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m excited to serve as your trusted guide through the upcoming NFL action. This week, we’ll explore each game on the Week 10 slate, offering expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and intriguing player props that have the potential to enhance your single-game parlays. Please note that early in the week, player props might be limited to platforms like Underdog and PrizePicks until traditional sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday. I’ll continue to add more props as I see fit/value leading up to Sunday, so be sure to come back close to kick-off for all the goodness in the player props market.

But before we dive into the Week 11 matchups, let’s pause for a moment to reflect on the Week 10 performances.

Remember 9 weeks in, we were sitting just above .500 over halfway through the season.

Below is the official record on the recommended picks from Week 10 (not including Thursday night football). Better ATS, weak prop week, and underwhelming in the totals market.

Let’s rebound in Week 11.

Week 10

  • Spread: 6-5
  • Totals: 5-7
  • Player Props: 23-21

Overall: 27-18 (51%)

2023 season

  • Spread: 58-62 (48%)
  • Totals: 76-61 (55%)
  • Player Props: 146-145 (50%)
  • ML: 4-4

Overall: 281-268 (51%)

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NFL Betting Primer: Week 11

As featured over the last 3 weeks, I will feature my top bets listed at the top between underdogs, favorites and O/Us. Consider it a quick-hitting guide to access my top plays.

Top favorites:

  • Chargers 1st half -1.5
  • Browns -2.5/ML
  • Seahawks -1.5
  • Lions -7.5
  • Chiefs -2.5
  • Dolphins -13.5

Top underdogs:

  • Vikings +3
  • Cardinals +6
  • Panthers +10.5

Top totals:

  • DET/CHI over 48
  • NYG/WAS under 38.5
  • MIA/LV over 45.5
  • LAR/SEA under 46.5
  • PHI/KC over 45.5
  • CLE/PIT under 33.0
  • ARI/HOU over 48
  • BUF/NYJ under 39.5

NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 11)

Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-10.5)

The Cowboys have covered the spread as favorites in 7 of their last 8 games. The overall favorites have covered the spread in 9 of the Cowboys’ last 10 games.

The last time they failed to do so…as double-digit road favorites versus the Arizona Cardinals earlier this season after a big win at home.

I remember when I wrote about that game back in Week 3, that by principles of betting, I would side with the double-digit home dogs. You already seeing the line move from the opening as Dallas favored by 11 is down to 10.5 points.

The Cowboys have been BY FAR the best team at home this season, where they have been much more of a middle-of-the-pack on the road. 2-3 ATS on the road this season. 4-0 ATS at home. And we have to factor in how “good” Dallas has been because they have mostly beaten up bad teams at home. Based on strength of the schedule, they have faced the 5th-easiest schedule overall (2nd-easiest in the NFC).

The Panthers have been much better at home than on the road. Carolina is 2-2 versus the spread at home this season despite their overall 1-8 record.

But aside from the road/home splits, I have other reasons to back the Panthers in this spot.

They only have one win this season, but it came off their bye week. They are coming off a Thursday night game, so they have had extra rest/time to prepare for Dallas. Frank Reich is also taking back playcalling duties.

They will be getting back two of their top defensive players: pass rusher Brian Burns and cornerback C.J. Henderson. Stud CB Jaycee Horn has been designated to return from IR and could also return, giving a major boost to the Panthers secondary.

The Panthers’ defense still ranks poorly allowing explosive running plays, but they have been great at limiting explosive passing plays. Last three games, they have allowed the league’s second-lowest yards per attempt (4.8).

Over the last five weeks, Dak Prescott leads the NFL in yards per attempt (9.7) and in completions of 10-plus yards (41).

Considering the Panthers boast the league’s second-worst run defense in DVOA, it’s a great spot for the Dallas ground game to find its footing. The Panthers red-zone defense ranks 32nd in the NFL, with them allowing the league’s third-highest rushing TD percentage. They have also faced the highest rushing rate in the NFL.

For the Panthers offense, I see a slight edge. Dallas plays the second-most amount of man coverage in the NFL. Panthers No. 1 WR, Adam Thielen, is PFF’s 6th-highest graded WR versus man coverage this season.

4 of the Cowboys last 5 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last four games through the air.

But Carolina is 4-0 toward the under at home.  46 points were scored on average between these two teams. So, although I usually settle with totals as my betting taste, I don’t see a ton of value in the total between the conflicting trends of both teams. But considering I like Carolina at home where they have played toward the under, that’s probably the play. But it could be either way with Tony Pollard’s TD regression looming. 3 TD bet at insanely long odds? You bet.

As for props, I am going straight to Bryce Young’s rushing totals. He’s gone over in three straight games, and the fierce Dallas pass rush foreshadows more scrambles coming in the rookie’s future. 7 of the 9 QBs Dallas has faced this season have gone over their projected rushing totals. They are allowing on average 27.3 rushing yards per game to QBs and the second-most attempts (5.8). The Cowboys play man coverage at a top-3 rate, which invites more QB runs.

My Picks:

  • Panthers +10.5
  • Under 42.5

My Props:

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

News broke this week that Deshaun Watson will miss the remainder of the season with a broken bone in his throwing shoulder. Money quickly poured in on the Steelers, moving the line from CLE -3.5 to CLE -2/-1.5. The total also tanked down to 34.5/34.

Not ideal for somebody (me) who bet this game early at CLE -3.5, thinking the Browns would get more love during the week. Nope.

But let’s get back to the matchup and the trends.

The Steelers are 5-0 in their last five games as road underdogs. We shall see if they remain underdogs leading up to kick-off. The Steelers are also 4-0 ATS versus the AFC North in their last four matchups.

Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Browns and previous starter PJ Walker, who is 1-1-1 ATS this season in the games he played the most. In two starts, he is 1-0-1 ATS. The only time the Browns haven’t covered where Walker played the most QB snaps was a game where he came in for an injured Watson versus the Colts. They still won 39-38 but didn’t cover the 4-point spread.

And the Browns have been a completely different animal at home compared to on the road. Opponents have had ZERO answers for their defense at home. They are 4-1 ATS and straight up in Cleveland with their only loss coming when they started Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB. More to come with DTR.

1st half totals in those games: 17, 10, 16, 13. You can bet the under in the first half at 16.5 at plus money (+105).

And 3-0-1 toward the under with an average of 30 points total scored. Games in Cleveland are averaging a meager 30 points (5 games played). I don’t think the Steelers move the ball effectively in any capacity especially early on. The Steelers offense finally showed up in the first half of last week’s game – scoring on the first three possessions – just to punt on 5 of their next 7 drives.

The Browns offense was likely going to struggle with backup offensive tackles against the Steelers’ fierce pass rush. Under duress this season, Walker ranked 30th in completion rate, 25th in yards per attempt, 33rd in passer rating and 37th in PFF passing grade.

I think the Browns realized their upside is limited with a journeyman like Walker, and therefore they named Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starting QB. I LOVE the move to go with the rookie. Remember, he was utterly impressive during the preseason to the extent that the team felt comfortable enough to move on from Josh Dobbs. And although his first start was a disaster, context is needed here.

He DIDN’T KNOW HE WAS STARTING till two and a half hours before the game. That won’t be the case this week.

The Steelers have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams that held a losing record. Not the case with the Browns coming in at 6-3 despite facing the NFL’s most difficult schedule through 10 weeks. However, the Browns have also tended to flop following wins, failing to cover the spread in 7 of their last 8 games following a win (aside from last week). But let’s be realistic, in that they should have lost last week’s game.

We know that the Steelers aren’t a great 6-3 team. They have willed their way to wins with defense and turnovers. They’ve created turnovers at just the right time to beat teams like the Browns, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Titans and Packers despite being outgained in yardage in “Every Single Game” they have played this season.

Six of the Steelers’ last 7 games have gone UNDER the total points line. 7-2 under MACHINES overall. Pittsburgh is a printing press of unders. Was on a current streak of four straight unders with no game surpassing 36 points until last week. And that game only totaled 42 points.

These teams have combined for an average of 38.5 points this season. 7 of 9 last games have gone under the total for the Browns.

But especially with the Browns’ dominance at home, I think you still need to bet the full game under even at the suppressed number of 34.5 (now 33). Although I’ll be frank in saying there’s not much value left to squeeze with such a bet-down total since it opened.

With the QB change – and I believe DTR is superior to Walker – getting the Browns at home at a MASSIVE discount is the team to back here. This game was going to be a defensive slugfest even if Watson had been under center. Wait for all the money to come in on a fraudulent Steelers team on the road – and get the Brownies at the best number. At the time of this writing, you can get them at 1-point home favorites. FanDuel had them at +1.5 (-120) at one point. Shop the best lines. Their defense is the reason they win games and DTR adds another element of upside that is worth betting on.

For the props market, the plummeting total tells you all you need to know. Bet the Steelers unders. Najee Harris was held to 43 rushing yards on 10 carries the last time these two teams played each other. But that was also before Jaylen Warren started taking a larger chunk of the rushing share. In the 2nd half of last week’s game, Warren out-carried Harris 9 to 5. Warren played a season-high 51% snap share.

In the 5 home games Cleveland has played, they have allowed an average of 35 rushing yards per game to opposing No. 1 RBs.

The only over I like is Jerome Ford’s rushing yardage. The Steelers have allowed 60-plus rushing yards to 5 different RBs over the last four games. Ford led the ground game last week with 17 carries for 107 yards, averaging an impressive 6.3 yards per carry with his longest run being 28 yards against a strong Ravens run defense. He earned 64% of the snaps. It was the first time Ford was efficient although it was somewhat bloated by a 28-yard run.

I’d bet the Browns feature A LOT of the ground game with a rookie QB under center.

My Picks:

  • Browns -2.5/ML
  • Under 33

My Props

Detroit Lions (-7.5) vs. Chicago Bears

The Lions are 6-0 ATS as favorites over their last 6 games. They have been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 23-8 (74%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense. They’ve covered in their last 16 of 19 games (84%).

And they have been an absolute juggernaut at home, averaging a +9.5 scoring margin in Motown.

The Lions’ offensive line is ranked No. 3 in PFF pass-blocking and is setting up Jared Goff for success every single week.

And even if the Chicago Bears elite run defense can slow down David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs – the Chargers’ strong run defense couldn’t stop them – I am confident that Goff can deliver from the pocket to a vast array of pass-catchers.

Lions -8.5. Take advantage of the line movement in the Bears’ favor despite Fields’ atrocious 1-4 ATS record this season (9-21-1 career ATS per the Action Network).

As for the total…

4 of 5 Bears’ last games have gone UNDER the total.  No game has exceeded 42 points, a 37.4 average.

But this is highly correlated with the injury to Justin Fields, who will be returning to the starting lineup for Week 11. Friendly reminder that when Fields was QB, the Bears were hitting overs all over the place (5-0 toward the over).

Still, the return of Fields – who has been one of the worst QBs to back ATS since he entered the NFL – is hardly a reason to back the Bears as heavy underdogs. When Chicago has established an effective ground game – as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas, New Orleans and Carolina, but not vs. the LA Chargers – their offense has been effective, and they have played games tight. 3-2 ATS in recent weeks.

The Lions have the No.3 ranked defense in the fewest rushing yards allowed per game this season. No run zone for Chicago.

The Bears’ defense has also been playing much better than they did at the start of the year. Last 3 games, they have allowed the 7th-lowest yards per play. Last three home games they have limited their opponents to under 240 passing yards. But on the road against a high-powered offense, I expect them to get exposed like they did against the Chargers offense back in Week 8.

Again, their issue on defense is their red-zone defense which ranks second worst in in the NFL, despite their increased productivity the last few weeks.

Detroit ranks 13th in red-zone trips per game this season.

I love the over in NFL’s version of Coors Field at Ford Field in Detroit. These teams have averaged 47.5 points total this season. And historically, betting on the Lions at home to go OVER the projected total has been profitable.

In their last 13 home games, the average total has been 55.5 points. 83% of the games have scored at least 51 points.

With the total so high, I love attacking some player prop overs. Justin Fields over 28.5 pass attempts. Gone over in all but one of his healthy games played this season. The Lions are facing on average 35 passing attempts per game.

My Picks:

  • Lions -7.5
  • Over 48

My Props:

Houston Texans (-6) vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites (0-3 ATS as a favorite this season) and just 1-2 straight up including losses at both Atlanta and Carolina, when they were small road favorites.

But they have been on the better teams at home this season. 3-1 at home this season (2-2 ATS). Although they should be 3-1 ATS had they not lost their kicker in their thrilling win over Tampa Bay.

Overall, Houston is 5-2 versus the spread over their last seven games. Their last 3 wins have been by 7 or fewer points.

C.J. Stroud continues to check off all the boxes, and there’s no reason to think he will slow down versus a porous Arizona Cardinals defense. Arizona’s defense ranks 31st in total DVOA, 31st versus the pass and 28th versus the run. Their defense has been particularly bad on the road. The team is 0-5 away from Arizona this season.

The Texans have gone under in four of their last 7 games, which featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game (aside from Tampa Bay). When faced with high-scoring offenses, the games have been shooting out.

Insert the Arizona Cardinals offense with Kyler Murray at the helm, and we are met with another over situation. With Murray back last week, the 44 total went over at 48 points scored in ARI/ATL.

I like the over in this spot. Two offenses are on the rise, with two defenses that cannot get out of their way.

Murray is 5-8 as a starter dating back to last season, going 7-6 ATS. And as previously mentioned, the Texans have been bad bets as favorites this season, despite how great Stroud has played.

Needless to say, if Arizona was playing anybody else but Houston, Murray would be getting more love after his miraculous first game back from his torn ACL injury. I don’t think the return of Murray and him playing the way he did – flashed a rusher is being considered enough in this line.

The Texans will likely come away with the win, but I’d hardly feel confident that it’s by more than a field goal. Note that Arizona has gone 5-5 ATS on the year despite a horrible defense, rotating QB room, and the 2nd-most difficult schedule faced in the NFC.

My Picks:

  • Cardinals +6
  • Over 48

My Props

Miami Dolphins (-13.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

The home team has covered in the Raiders’ last 7 games. That plays extremely favorably into the hands of the Miami Dolphins, coming off a bye week with their guys like Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane at full strength.

We’ve seen when offensive masterminds get all their toys back and destroy opposing defenses, and I would expect nothing less from Mike McDaniel fresh off an extra week of preparation to get his team a massive win at home.

Miami is a perfect 4-0 ATS at home, winning by no less than two TDs in any contest.

The Raiders cannot stop the run – 4th in rushing yards allowed per game to RBs – and that is going to be an issue against Miami’s gaudy rushing attack with De’Von Achane back in the lineup. The narrative all season long about Miami has been they kill bad teams, and fail to beat good teams. Think we see more of the same in Week 11.

Offensively, Aidan O’Connell is going to run into MAJOR issues against the Miami defense, which has played extremely well in their last two games before they went on a bye week. Just 280 total yards allowed per game.

The Raiders are 8-2 toward the under, but I think this is a spot where they regress more to the mean. I say that because every game played in Miami has reached at least 47 points. 3-1 toward the over against bad offenses like the Patriots, Panthers and Giants.

I think between Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, LV can score enough to put this game over 46.5 with Miami also certainly hanging 30-plus points. The Raiders have averaged 21 points per game in O’Connell’s three starts this season. Miami’s main weakness is against the run (26th in DVOA) and LV wants to establish it with Jacobs at running back. Last two games, Jacobs has averaged 26-plus carries with the team posting a +13% run rate over expectation.

My Picks:

  • Dolphins -13.5
  • Over 45.5

My Props:

Washington Football Team (-8.5) vs. New York Giants

The Giants will yet again trot out Tommy DeVito after getting curb-stomped last week against the Dallas Cowboys. The Giants were predictably a total disaster and now find themselves as 10-point road underdogs against the Commanders in Week 11.

When these teams played back in Week 7, it was a 14-7 barnburner between the two squads, with Big Blue pulling out the victory. They combined for 18 punts.

As for the look-ahead to the rematch, the trends are grim backing Washington has heavy favorites. The Commanders are 0-6 ATS as favorites over their last six games.

But I think a big part of this is based on how bad their defense is, which the Giants under DeVito can’t take advantage of. And a lot of the games that the Commanders failed to cover as favorites – 0-3 ATS as favorites this season – were based on costly turnovers.

When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 10 offensive turnovers. In the 5 games they have covered, just 3 turnovers on offense. Considering no team has the liberty to lose the turnover battle more than the Devito-led Giants – the guy has taken 11 sacks and thrown 3 interceptions over the last 2 games – a bet on the Commanders is them winning the turnover margin.

Sam Howell has been better at taking care of the football in recent weeks, with him taking fewer sacks and throwing the ball less in harm’s way. And although the Giants shut down the Commanders’ offense the first time around, this defense could look much different in Week 11.

Leonard Williams is a Seahawk, while DE Kayvon Thibodeaux and starting CB Adoree Jackson are in the concussion protocol.

As for the total, 7 of Giants’ last 8 games have gone under the projected total. 8-2 overall toward the under.

And even though I expect the Commanders’ offense to play better than it did in Week 7, a lack of push from the Giants offensively as my side with the under.

The Commanders have gone under the projected total in three of the last five games. Should be noted that if Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under.

The Giants have scored 20 points on offense once this season (Week 2).

My Picks:

  • Under 38.5
  • Commanders -8.5

Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

The Packers are 0-4 ATS in the last four games as underdogs. 2-5 overall as straight dogs. And they have faced the 4th-easiest strength of schedule in the NFC.

They are 3-6 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) and Rams (led by Brett Rypien). They willed their way to a 13-3 lead midway through the fourth quarter in their last victory over L.A.

The Packers’ offense finally scored in the first half last week, but I’ll chalk that up to variance for a team that has been the worst offensive-scoring team in the first halves of games. Only the Giants have led fewer games in the first two quarters than Green Bay.

Meanwhile, the Chargers have been the third-highest-scoring offense in the first half, behind only Dallas and Kansas City. Second-best on the road. GB is dead last at home in the first half point scored.

This might be the lock of all locks. Chargers -1.5 first-half spread. Get all the good parts of the LA Chargers before they piss it all away in the second half.

As for the totals, here are the trends.

6 of 7 last games have gone under for LAC. 4 of the last five games have gone under for both the Chargers and Packers. The Packers are 3-1 toward the under at home.

But both teams are coming off “overs” hitting. Lightning won’t strike twice in two weeks even if the Chargers’ defense continues to underwhelm (4th in RZ trips faced, 32nd in yards per attempt faced). The Chargers have shown competence against bad teams like the Jets/Bears. The Packers are a bad team.

Take the under.

Still, for props, we can pile into the yardage totals for Jordan Love. Every QB the Chargers have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards prop. Jordan Love has gone over 226.5 passing yards in three straight games and all four of his home games this season.

Pair the Love passing yards over with Luke Musgrave. The Chargers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season (68.3).

My Picks:

  • Chargers 1st Half -1.5
  • Under 44

My Props:

Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

Kids these days don’t remember when this matchup was solely made for Thursday night football. Blake Bortles in color rush uniforms. Simply could not be beaten. However, I have an inkling that we will get a semblance of a Thursday night matchup, even with this game taking place on a Sunday afternoon.

The Jaguars are 66% ATS this season, tied for the best in the AFC. 5-1 ATS and straight up over their last six games. 4-1 ATS as a favorite.

Jacksonville is extremely strong versus the run: Top-5 in the fewest rushing yards per game. No. 4 in fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs (63). Simply put, they can neutralize Derrick Henry and the Titans’ ground game. However, I’d be remiss if I didn’t entertain the idea of a Henry over at 56.5 rushing yards, which just seems too low even with the tougher matchup. He’s failed to hit that number in just three games this season, and Jacksonville has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in two of the last three weeks.

The Jaguars’ defense also doesn’t allow many big plays – ranking inside the top-10 in the fewest overall explosive plays allowed per game.

The Titans are losers of 8 straight on the road. It’s a team that tends to underperform on the road because bad offensive lines don’t travel. The matchup is going to come down to how Will Levis can perform against a beatable Jaguars secondary, that was gashed by Brock Purdy a week ago.

But Levis couldn’t complete a deep pass to save his life versus Tampa Bay. Completed just one of eight passes downfield of 20-plus air yards. And that was against a defense that entering Week 10 ranked last in the most explosive passing plays allowed per game. Woof. Again, aside from last week, the Jags had been a solid defense limiting explosive plays.

Likely settle on Jags -6.5, with Levis dropping to 1-2 ATS after a surprising start to his NFL career.

As for the total, 6 of the last 7 games have gone UNDER for Tennessee. Each of the Titans’ last 7 road games has gone under the projected total (7-2 overall).

The average scoring of these two teams is 40 points.

Considering both defenses boast top-7 red-zone defenses – Titans (3rd), Jaguars (7th) – I think the under is the firm play here. The Titans’ red-zone defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL on the road.

Here’s how to attack the props.

Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured). The Jaguars’ defense ranks third in pass rate faced on defense. The Jaguars are also allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing perimeter WRs.

My Picks:

  • Under 40.5
  • Jaguars -6.5

My Props:

San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers’ defensive strengths are in their ability to stop the run. Their secondary is a mess, and Will Levis was unable to take advantage of that a week ago. I don’t expect Brock Purdy to miss a beat with all his playmakers healthy at his disposal.

Tampa Bay ranks last in 3rd down conversion rate on defense. No team has a higher third-down conversion rate than the 49ers at home (56%).

TB’s defense is all about bending but not breaking, and that will probably not work against the 49ers. SF’s red-zone offense ranks 6th best in the NFL.

The Buccaneers have covered four straight road games. But who did they play? MIN, NO, BUF and HOU. SF is a different beast.

Take the 49ers even with them laying a huge number. When SF was healthy to start the year, they were routinely putting up 30-plus points at home winning by double-digits.

As for the total, it’s been 3 straight overs at home for the 49ers. But 6 of the last 7 Bucs games have gone under. The average total of these two teams is 41.5 or the current O/U set line. Likely a shy away spot for me as it could either way by one field goal or red-zone possession.

Both teams should face a lot of raw passing attempts, with both units facing top-5 pass rates on defense this season. Therefore, I prefer tackling some of the players props with some receivers/quarterbacks.

Bet the under on Cade Otton. The 49ers are allowing the second-fewest receiving yards per game to TEs (33.4).

But their defense has also allowed 60-plus receiving yards to 8 different WRs over the last 6 games. The over has hit in 7/9 of games for opposing No. 1 WRs facing the 49ers, including four straight games with 100 yards-plus allowed. Mike Evans has gone over 55.5 yards in 6 of 9 games played this season (67%), hitting the over in 3 of his last four. Projections have him slated for nearly 66 receiving yards.

My Picks:

  • 49ers -12.5

My Props:

Buffalo Bills (-7) vs. New York Jets

The Jets defense has been lights out, holding opponents to the league’s lowest yards per attempt. And that’s being against a schedule featuring QBs such as Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert.

Gang Green’s defense is 4th in pass defense DVOA compared to 19th in run defense DVOA.

The Jets are 6-3 toward the under this season. They will feed Breece Hall. Great for ball control and grinding out wins. But not for consistently hitting overs. I expect them to heavily lean into the rushing attack versus Buffalo’s run defense that can’t stop a nosebleed.

As for the Bills, we know they are currently a mess. 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. They are 1-4 straight up and ATS on the road/neutral sites this season. And they have faced the EASIEST schedule thus far. Woof.

Buffalo has either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents’ doors off this season. Their two strongest offensive outputs have come at home. 4-1 overall at home (should have won last week) and 2-3 ATS. Along with 3 straight unders.

Simply put, until the Bills or Jets offense puts it together in some fashion, I’ll just continue to ride the UNDER trains.

From a sides perspective, it seems odd that the Jets are only 7-point dogs given the state of the Bills. Zach Wilson is a BIG part of that as is the game being played in Buffalo. Again, likely a shy-away spot for me but I think dabbling in some Bills -6.5 (if it moves off the 7) is the move given their tendency to play much better at home. Again, the Monday Night Game against the Broncos was essentially an example of everything going wrong for a team that has had the worst luck in the NFL in 2023.

My Picks:

  • Under 39.5
  • Bills -7

My Props:

Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)

The Rams are 0-5 as underdogs ATS in their last five games played. They are allowing the league’s 6th-lowest passing TD percentage while boasting an above-average red zone defense (11th) while allowing the league’s 4th highest rushing TD percentage at a whopping 50%. LA has also been super inconsistent all year long, as they seemingly can only put together 30 minutes of solid football any given Sunday.

Their run defense ranks 18th in DVOA and their pass defense ranks 25th.

Against offenses not named the Arizona Cardinals or injury-ravened Seahawks/Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season. Only in 1 game (Week 1 vs Seattle) have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

The narrative around Seattle was all negative around Geno Smith before last week, even after he had faced a juggernaut schedule of pass defenses between Cleveland and Baltimore. He delivered a victory for the Seahawks at home against a bad Commanders defense, tossing for 362 passing yards and 2 TDs while taking only one sack (zero interceptions). They stalled in the red zone, but the offense posted nearly 500 yards of total offense averaging 6.6 yards per play.

Since Week 2, Seattle has been 4-3-1 ATS,

The kicker for me in backing Seattle -1 is how good they have been as a favorite this season. Favorites have won each of the last 7 Seahawks games. Seattle is 5-1 as a favorite with their only loss coming back in Week 1 against this same Rams team.

But recall that game was bizarre. Seattle was up 13-7 at halftime but then they lost both their starting tackles. That won’t be the case in Week 11.

Seattle’s pass defense has also improved dramatically since the start of the year, with their cornerbacks healthy on the outside. After allowing 300-plus passing yards in three straight games to open the year…they have allowed fewer than 250 passing yards in five of their last six games. Bet the under on Matthew Stafford’s bloated 258.5 passing yards prop – a number he hasn’t hit in four straight games.

And even after Seattle got gashed on the ground versus Baltimore, they have been one of the most formidable run defenses all season.

The Commanders rushed for just 68 yards in Week 10. The Rams are 1-5 straight up when they rush for less than 100 yards on offense.

They are also 1-6 when they allowed 200-plus passing yards. They are who we thought they were at the beginning of the season. A bad team.

Take Seattle to win and bet the under.

The Rams are 3-1 toward the under over their last four games with Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford on the field, with the one “over” coming on the back of Dallas’ offense in Week 8.  In those contests, the Rams have averaged just 9.5 points per game in the first half.

Overall, four of the last 5 games have gone under for L.A. Games played between the Rams/Chargers in LA have gone under at a 6-3 rate.

These teams are a combined 7-11 in O/U averaging 43.5 points per game. Seattle on the road is 3-1 toward the under and the Rams are 3-1 toward the under at home.

As for unders, insert the player props. Darrell Henderson Jr. is viewed as the Rams starting RB. But that might not be the case based on the usage when we saw the Rams last play in Week 9. In the first half, Henderson led the Rams backfield with 10 carries for 19 yards. Royce Freeman had 18 yards on 5 carries. Henderson had zero second-half carries (just 2 targets). While Freeman saw all 7. There’s enough of a split to confidently back the under against a defense that has held RBs in check almost all season, allowing fewer than 60 rushing yards to all but two RBs this season. Henderson has also FLOWN under this number in back-to-back games, failing to surpass 31 yards.

Tyler Higbee will also likely fall short of expectations. He’s gone over his projected receiving total once since Cooper Kupp has returned to the lineup.

My Picks:

  • Under 46.5
  • Seahawks -1.5

My Props:

Denver Broncos (-3) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Broncos have traditionally been a team to “fade” this season. 3-5-1 versus the spread. 4-5 straight up. Before their bye week, the only team Denver had looked impressive against thus far has been the Kansas City Chiefs, limiting their offense twice over three weeks.

But with another strong outing on Monday Night Football against the Bills – although a game they easily should have lost had the Bills not been so generous – they need to be taken more seriously with Sean Payton righting the ship.

Denver’s defense opened the gates as an over machine, but it’s changed in recent weeks with the under-hitting in their last 4 games. Their defense has played better than out they started the season. Some of that can be based on just general regression – they couldn’t keep up the historically bad pace – but it needs to be noted that it’s not the same rollover unit it was to start. Specifically, they have been better against the run, which was their big issue at the start of the year.

But the defensive improvements have come at a cost of the offense that has turned Russell Wilson into an ultra-conservative game manager. The team has totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in five straight games.

Ultimately, I love the under here. The Broncos’ improved defense is no fluke, especially with their ability to home in on limiting No. 1 weapons. The Vikings are 7-3 toward the under this season, even after hitting back-to-back over the last 2 games.

As for sides, how can you not ride the red-hot Minnesota Vikings winner of 5 in a row? They’ve covered their last four road games and have covered as an underdog at a 4-2 record. Denver is just 2-3 as a favorite this season.

The market was sluggish backing the plucky Joshua Dobbs in Arizona, and they are making the same mistake again. Dobbs started 3-0 versus the spread as a member of the Cardinals with no expectations. Look for his new streak ATS to continue rolling with upgraded personnel and another week of practice on his new offense under his belt. Ride the Vikings’ impromptu 5-game winning streak against a Broncos team that is getting too much credit for a Bills implosion on Monday Night Football. They have won one game this season by more than 3 points.

The Vikings average scoring margin is by +2.4 with all but one of their 10 games played this season decided by 8 points or less. This team plays other teams tight every single week, even if they don’t win.

Minnesota’s defense has ALSO been an underrated unit over the 5-game winning streak. 8th in DVOA overall and 11th in EPA/play allowed on defense. 4th in the fewest explosive plays allowed on defense. They have No. 1 blitz rate in the NFL while running zone coverage at a top-10 rate. Against the blitz, Wilson ranks 30th in PFF passing grade, 20th in yards per attempt, 24th in completion rate, and 28th in NFL passer rating.

I like the game total under, and therefore I love a lot of the player props unders as well.

Juggernaut Javonte Williams has been on a heater, but I think he cools off against the Vikings’ defense. Only one RB they have faced all season has gone over 65 yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2. Over their 5-game win streak, only one RB has surpassed their projected rushing total against Minnesota. Take the under.

My Picks:

  • Vikings +3
  • Under 41

My Props:

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Each of Chiefs’ last 5 games has gone UNDER the projected total. Overall, they are 7-2 toward the under. This is due in part to facing high closing game totals and their defense stifling opposing offenses. They rank 3rd overall in DVOA and 3rd in pass defense DVOA. 20th in rush defense DVOA.

I think we will see a heavy run game plan by the Eagles to expose the Chiefs’ weaker run defense. They have shown the ability to run the ball at times this season, and there’s no better time to unleash D’Andre Swift fresh off a bye week.

The Eagles’ high-powered offense ranks third in points per game (28). Their fatal flaw has been in the red zone, but it’s improved dramatically over their last 3 games (5th-best).

The Eagles defense ranks 26th in red zone defense – the second-worst red zone defense the Chiefs have faced this season.

The average total between these two teams this season: 44.5

I think the lines have appropriately adjusted to the Chiefs being a defensive-oriented team with the total in this game at a meager 45.5 points. But it’s still a shockingly low number for a total featuring a Patrick Mahomes-Jalen Hurts matchup. It’s the second-lowest total KC has played in this season. The other was against the Jets (41) and that game went over. And the Chiefs have played half their games at home with 48-plus points scored.

The current total provides enough of a dip for me to back the over on the 45.5-point total. Eventually, the Chiefs’ streak of unders will regress to the mean, and this seems like the spot against one of the NFL’s best offenses.

The Eagles’ defense is also overrated even if both defenses rank near the bottom of the NFL in explosive plays allowed on defense.

As for sides…

The Eagles have covered 2 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense. By a half point and barely against the Cowboys back in Week 9. They also pushed twice. 2-2-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 points.

KC has scored 28 points per game at home this season. And 20-plus points against all teams not named the Denver Broncos.

I think the Chiefs can have a strong offensive outing in this spot versus an Eagles defense with the team coming off a bye week. Andy Reid with a bye week remains undefeated.

Bet the over, the Chiefs -2.5 and enjoy Monday Night Football.

As for props, I think the move is to attack DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift OVERs. The books have yet to adjust their numbers in the wake of the Dallas Goedert injury. I expect both guys to see an uptick in receiving usage as a result.

Last season after DG got hurt, Smith went on a tear posting 8 of 10 games played with 60-plus receiving yards.

Swift has at least 2 receptions in 6 straight games. With Philly potentially facing a negative game script in a potential back-and-forth contest, I like Swift to get over 2-plus catches with the vacated target share left by Goedert.

My Picks:

  • Over 45.5
  • Chiefs -2.5

My Props:

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