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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 12)

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Introducing the Week 12 edition of the NFL Betting primer, proudly brought to you by BettingPros! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm excited to serve as your trusted guide through the upcoming NFL action. This week, we'll explore each game on the Week 12 slate, offering expert insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and intriguing player props that have the potential to enhance your single-game parlays. Please note that early in the week, player props might be limited to platforms like Underdog and PrizePicks until traditional sportsbooks release their player props closer to Sunday. I'll continue to add more props as I see fit/value leading up to Sunday, so be sure to come back close to kick-off for all the goodness in the player props market.

But before we dive into the Week 12 matchups, let's pause for a moment to reflect on the Week 11 performances.

Remember 9 weeks in, we were sitting just above .500 over halfway through the season.

Below is the official record of the recommended picks from Week 11...

Strong week overall, hitting 55% of the bets. Great bounce back for the totals and player props, while essentially breaking even on the point spreads.

With our bellies - and bankrolls - full from Thanksgiving/Black Friday games, let's keep the money train rolling.

Week 11

  • Spread: 6-7
  • Totals: 8-4
  • Player Props: 17-14

Overall: 31-25 (55%)

2023 season

  • Spread: 64-69 (48%)
  • Totals: 84-65 (56%)
  • Player Props: 163-159 (51%)
  • ML: 5-4

Overall: 312-293 (52%)

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NFL Betting Primer: Week 12

As featured over the last 4 weeks, I will feature my top bets listed at the top between underdogs, favorites and O/Us. Consider it a quick-hitting guide to access my top plays. Note that my favorite player props get released in a separate article released every Saturday.

Top Favorites:

  • Titans -3.5
  • Steelers -2
  • Ravens -3
  • Cardinals ML (+120)
  • Jaguars -1.5
  • KC -5.5 (1st half)
  • Vikings -3

Top Underdogs:

  • Falcons ML (+110)
  • Buccaneers +2.5
  • Bills +3

Top Totals:

  • Steelers over 17.5 points (Team Total)
  • TB/IND over 45.5 points
  • BAL/LAC under 48.5 points
  • MIN/CHI under 43 points
  • ATL/NO under 41.5 points
  • PHI/BUF over 48.5 points
  • KC/LV under 43.5 points

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)

The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites (0-4 ATS as a favorite this season) and just 2-2 straight up including losses at both Atlanta and Carolina, when they were small road favorites. When the team has had high expectations, they have most often underdelivered.

But they have been one the better teams at home this season. 4-1 at home this season (but only 2-3 ATS). Although they should be 3-2 ATS had they not lost their kicker in their thrilling win over Tampa Bay.

But as an underdog, the Texans are 4-2 straight up (83% ATS) including a massive win over the Jaguars in Week 3. The Jaguars were 9.5-point favorites in that game. Now, they are favored by just 1.5 points. Smells like value on one of the most profitable teams to back in the AFC. More to come.

Overall, Houston is 5-3 versus the spread over their last 8 games. Their last 4 wins have been by 7 or fewer points.

Rookie C.J. Stroud continues to check off all the boxes - although he did throw three interceptions as the offense stalled in the second half last week.

Still, there's no reason to think he will slow down versus a porous Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense. They rank 2nd in run defense DVOA but rank fourth in passing yards allowed per game (254.4).

Seems like a great spot for the Houston offense to cook, given how bad this Jaguars defense played against the 49ers offense - which the Texans offense runs similar to under OC Bobby Slowik - a few weeks back.

The Texans have gone under in five of their last 8 games, which featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. When faced with high-scoring offenses, the games have been shooting out. The Jaguars are averaging 23 points per game this season and rank second in points per game on the road (26).

The Jaguars are 70% ATS this season, No.1 in the AFC. 6-1 ATS and straight up over their last seven games. 5-1 ATS as a favorite.

Trevor Lawrence is coming off by far his best game to date, citing that his knee finally feels healthy after he got banged up a few weeks back.

And I think the Texans’ defense will not have many answers for the Jaguars offense. They rank 4th-worst in points per game over the last three weeks.

And the Jacksonville offense posted MORE yards (404) the last time they played the Texans compared to last week. They lost because of self-inflicted wounds. Lost a fumble, interception, drops, and missed field goals. A blocked FG. Kick-off return allowed for a touchdown on a short kickoff. 1-3 in the red zone. 5 for 13 on third downs. Wouldn't bet on that twice in a row.

The Jaguars' defense doesn't allow many big plays - ranking inside the top-10 in the fewest overall explosive plays allowed per game. The Jaguars have been ROAD WARRIORS. Perfect 4-0.

This matchup features a lot of strength versus strength. But my lean is toward the Jaguars as the overall superior roster. And if they can limit some of the explosive plays by the Texans passing game, they should be able to squeak out another road win.

Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured) and Will Levis (who couldn't complete a deep pass to save his life) last week. The Jaguars' defense ranks third in pass rate faced on defense.

Fully buy into Stroud soaring over his passing yardage props.

The Jaguars are also allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing perimeter WRs. Tank Dell season rolls on.

If you've read this far, this seems like an obvious spot for the over, but I hate the bloated number at 48.5/47.5. Likely a shy away spot from me considering both teams boast top-12 red-zone defenses. These teams have averaged just 44 total points scored this season.

The Texans allow the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (63). Evan Engram has been under his prop in the last 2 weeks, but it was against two of the tougher tight end matchups. He went for 67 yards the last time he faced Houston as the team's leading receiver with 7 catches on 8 targets. Also saw 6 targets last week.

My Picks:

  • Under 48 
  • Jaguars -1.5

My Props:

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)

The Steelers are 4-1 ATS versus the AFC North in their last 5 matchups. They have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games against teams that held a losing record. They take care of business against bad teams.

The Bengals have a bad offense without Joe Burrow. When he wasn't "healthy" to start the season, the offense struggled. The defense is also a disaster. 28th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. 22nd overall in DVOA.

The Bengals are 1-2 as underdogs this season despite facing the league's most difficult schedule.

We know that the Steelers aren't a great 6-4 team. They have willed their way to wins with defense and turnovers. They've created turnovers at just the right time to beat teams like the Browns, Raiders, Rams, Ravens, Titans and Packers despite being outgained in yardage in "Every Single Game" they have played this season.

But there's hope at the end of the tunnel with the team's decision to move on from ex-offensive coordinator Matt Canada. I think we see a positive output from their offense in a favorable matchup against a run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA. They also rank dead last in explosive plays per game on defense.

Every game the Bengals have lost this season they have allowed at least 24 points. They have allowed 17 or more points in 80% of their games. The Steelers have hit the 17-point threshold in 60% of their games played. Plus money to score 17.5 points (+105) in Week 12.

After a 45-game streak of zero games with 400 yards on offense, we could see the Steelers’ offense finally boom against a vulnerable defense.

I love them in this spot to rally offensively, to get them an easy road win. And we already know the defense can take care of business against Jake Browning, who will be making his first NFL start.

As for the total, the trends all point to the under. It's an AFC North game after all.

Seven of the Steelers’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line. 8-2 under MACHINES overall. Pittsburgh is a printing press of unders.

But as I have alluded to, the Bengals’ defense is in a bad spot. And that's going unnoticed because 3 of their last 5 games have hit the over. Their last four games have all surpassed 41.5 points.

So, although I initially bet the "under" on this game at 35, the offense post-Canada has the makings of massive improvements in a plus matchup. Note the most points scored last year in any of Kenny Pickett's starts (30) came against the Bengals.

So, after further review, like the over at a sluggish at 34.5/34 points and will likely dabble in the Steelers' team total of 17.5 points at plus money.

Could also very well see Ja'Marr Chase get absolutely FED with targets, and his explosive skill set can further drive this toward a potential sneaky over at a suppressed number.

The Bengals have allowed the most explosive plays on defense (highest average depth of target faced) this season including 50-plus receiving yards to 8 different opposing WRs over the last five games. The Bengals are one of the worst defenses versus tight ends, allowing 5.8 catches and 64 receiving yards per game to the position.

Their defense also cannot stop the run as previously mentioned. Take the over on Jaylen Warren's rushing yardage prop. Gone over this number in three straight games.

Warren led the Steelers with an impressive 129 rushing yards and a touchdown on just nine carries, averaging a remarkable 14.3 yards per carry in Week 11. His longest run was a notable 74-yarder, and he caught all 3 passes for 16 yards on 3 targets (12% Target share). Najee Harris contributed just 35 yards on 12 carries. 2 targets. 5 carries in the first half.

Harris saw his snaps bounce back to 57% versus Warren's 45%. But I'd pay less attention to the snaps when Warren would have played MORE had he not been ripping off chunk gains left and right. With the firing of  Canada, in favor of the RB coach taking over as the new offensive coordinator, I expect Warren's touches to increase as the team's No. 1 explosive playmaker.

My Picks:

  • Steelers -2
  • Steelers team total over 17.5 points

My Props:

Tennessee Titans (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

If you have read any version of the BettingPros Primer this season, you'll be strongly aware of the home/road splits with the Tennessee Titans. Fade them on the road. The Titans are losers of 9 straight on the road.

But this year they have only played three true home games. They had a "home" game in London.

They are 3-0 straight up and ATS in Nashville. This team plays vastly differently at home than it does on the road. 27.3 points per game at home with wins against the Chargers/Bengals/Falcons. Just 12.3 points on the road.

They have a bad offensive line that doesn't travel well. But they play much better at home where their offense has not only scored points but posted monster yardage totals. The Titans have averaged over 150 rushing yards per game at home this season (3rd).

Derrick Henry is NOTORIOUS for steamrolling defenses in late November/early December. He draws the Panthers’ atrocious run defense in Week 12.

Carolina boasts the league's worst run defense in DVOA. The Panthers red-zone defense ranks 31st in the NFL, with them allowing the league's fourth-highest rushing TD percentage. They have also faced the highest rushing rate in the NFL.

Not to mention, the Panthers are a much worse team on the road than at home. Carolina is 2-3 versus the spread at home this season despite their overall 1-9 record.

As for the total, 8 of the last 9 games have gone UNDER for Tennessee. Each of the Titans' last 8 road games has gone under the projected total (8-2 overall). At home this season they are 2-1 toward the over. Carolina has not hit the over in four straight games.

The average scoring of these two teams is 41 points.

Considering the Titans also have the second-best red zone defense - I think the under is the firm play here. Carolina will not find any way to score points with a lack of explosive playmakers to score quickly with them very unlikely to score in the red zone.

But all in all, just backing the Titans is the best move to make.

As for props, take all the Derrick Henry rushing props you can find while betting the unders on Will Levis.  9 of 10 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season.

My Picks:

  • Titans -3.5
  • Under 36.5

My Props:

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

Yet again we have another team with stark home/road splits. The Atlanta Falcons - who will be led by Desmond Ridder coming out of their bye week - play host to their rival NFC South Saints. New Orleans are fringe road favorites. And I already bet the Falcons +1 early in the week.

Here's why.

Ridder has only lost one game at home in his professional and college career, so I'll continue to back the Falcons when they are at home in the dome. They play better in Atlanta. That's been evident this year, with the Dirty Birds 3-1 (under Ridder) averaging 22.8 points per game in Atlanta versus their 1-4 record on the road, where they have averaged 15 points per game.

I also like backing the positive regression for the Falcons in one-score games. Last year, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 one-possession games.

This year? They started at 3-1 in one-possession games. They have dropped three games in a row by scores of 5, 3 and 2, bringing their one-possession game record to 3-4. I don't think this streak keeps up. The Falcons are on a six-game streak of failing to cover the spread in games they are favored in. Thank the lord they are not favorites in this spot. Overall, the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.

The negative streak must end against an equally overrated Saints squad.

The only NFC teams that are worse ATS than the Saints (2-7-1): The Falcons (2-8) and Panthers. Both the Falcons and Saints are equally overrated. Hence I settle with the underdog at home.

I also love Ridder in this spot versus a Saints defense that ranks 4th in most rushing yards allowed to QBs. They struggled to continue mobile QBs and that will give the Falcons a big boost with Ridder under center. The second-year QB has had 10-plus rushing yards in his last five games, going over 18 in three separate contests.

Bet the over on his rushing yards and attempts this week.

Think we see the Falcons overall have an edge against the Saints defense, who will be without star CB, Marshon Lattimore.

Falcons DC, Ryan Nielsen, is also super familiar with the Saints’ entire roster, having spent his coaching tenure with the Saints from 2017-2022.

As for the total...Atlanta is 7-3 toward the under this season. These 2 teams are a combined 7-13 toward the under this season. These teams have averaged 40.5 points this season.

With the O/U set at 42.5 points, think the under is the easy play here.

With Ridder at QB, I like the over on Drake London's receiving yards. Ridder targeted London 5 times (including penalties and 2-point attempts) for a 63% Target share (8 total pass attempts) in his limited playing time in Week 10.

Before his benching, London was on a streak of 4 straight games with 54-plus yards. He is also 3-0 toward the over on his yardage props in his last three home games.

My Picks:

  • Falcons +1.5/ML
  • Under 41.5

My Props:

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have covered the spread in each of their last four games. They have covered four of their last five road games, narrowly falling short of covering last week.

The Colts are 6-4 ATS. Both teams have been solid this year in beating expectations.

As for the specific matchups...

The Buccaneers' defensive strengths are in their ability to stop the run. 3rd in run defense DVOA.

But their secondary is a mess, and Gardner Minshew can take advantage with all his playmakers healthy at his disposal between Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Josh Downs.

Tampa Bay also ranks dead last in 3rd down conversion rate on defense. TB's defense is all about bending but not breaking, and that will probably not work against the Colts’ underrated offense orchestrated by Shane Steichen. The Colts are 6th in red zone scoring offense. Also, above average in third-down conversions per game.

I think the Colts can find l success on their side offensive of the ball. Indianapolis is an OVER machine. The Colts are 6-4 toward the OVER this year with their first two "unders" coming in Minshew's first start in a rainy game in Baltimore and in the Titans matchup where Anthony Richardson got knocked out early. The last two unders came against the Patriots/Panthers atrocious offenses.

Even so, 3 of the 4 games ended with 39-plus points scored. When they play a decent to above-average offense, the game goes over.

All the other six games they have played have gone over the total because of the chaotic nature of Minshew (first in turnover-worthy plays) in an offense that has benefited from big plays that have generated points on both sides.

So even though seven of the Buccaneers’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line, the Colts are the team that unlocks the "overs" on under streaks. Indy is 4-1 toward the over at home with games averaging 57 points. These teams have averaged 45 points.

And this is a matchup the Buccaneers' pass-first offense can take advantage of versus an exploitable Colts defense. The last three games for the Colts’ defense before they played the Patriots in Germany: 7th in yards and last in points per game on defense (30). They also rank 32nd in % of TDs on the ground faced (58%).

I love the over in the dome at 43.5 and the Buccaneers catching 2.5 points. They have been a solid team to back on the road, and I think that continues against a so-so Colts team that ranks 20th in Massey-Peabody NFL 2023 Power Rankings. The Buccaneers rank 13th.

Given how bad the Buccaneers’ pass defense has been, you have to take the over on Michael Pittman Jr.

Tampa Bay is the ultimate pass funnel, and TB is not afraid to unleash Minshew's arm when the matchup calls for it. 9/10 QBs to play a full game versus Tampa Bay have gone OVER their passing yardage projection.

I think my favorite way to play this prop is a single-game parlay, where I pair Minshew at 200-plus yards with Pittman OVER 65.5 receiving yards. The Buccaneers have allowed the 4th-most receiving yards per game to WRs this season. Take the over on Josh Downs’ receptions prop at 3.5 catches. The only reason he has been UNDER this number for the last two weeks is that he has been battling a knee injury. Weeks 2-8, he was over this prop in 6/7 games.

My Picks:

  • Over 45.5
  • Buccaneers +2.5

My Props:

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots (-4)

Gross. Bet the under and move on. But seriously…

My New England Patriots have the worst record ATS in the AFC. Second worst in the NFL (20%) at 2-8. The Giants have been better at covering 32% of their games.

The Patriots offense is in complete disarray, with unknowns who the starting quarterback will even be. The focus should just be on running the football, something they should be able to do against a horrible Giants run defense that ranks fourth in rushing yards allowed per game.

Because neither offense is prolific, the game flow should keep the Patriots feeding their star RB, Rhamondre Stevenson, fresh off the bye week.

As for the total, 8 of the Giants' last 9 games have gone under the projected total. 9-2 overall toward the under. The Giants have scored 20 points on offense twice this season (Week 2 and Week 11). The Patriots have held their last two opponents to 20 or fewer points.

The Patriots games have gone OVER in two of their last four games. These teams have combined for a 6-15 record toward the under averaging 38 points scored.

Coming off a bye week, the Patriots are the healthier team. Their offense has an advantage in the run game, and I think their defense can do enough to harass Tommy DeVito into mistakes. Again, don't let their win over the Commanders - a team the Patriots were favored against a few weeks back - distract you from the fact it took 6 Washington turnovers for them to win. DeVito was sacked 9 times.

As a Patriots fan - vying for a top draft pick - I'd like to see them lose. But they will inevitably pull out the win in New York. MetLife Stadium is the anti-Coors Field by the way. 8-1 toward the under between the Jets/Giants. I'd bet that record turns to 10-1 by Sunday night.

With the game total likely going under - unless we get short fields created by turnovers - you'll want to mix in some player prop unders as well. Giants RB Saquon Barkley was in negative yardage in the 1st half of last week's game. 6 carries for -2 yards.

The Patriots are only allowing 80 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs, with just two individuals hitting 80 yards - in games where the defense allowed 30 points on defense. That will not be the case on Sunday.

New England's defense also ranks second in the NFL in the fewest yards per carry allowed to opposing RBs (3.5).

My Picks:

  • Under 34
  • Patriots -4

My Props:

Denver Broncos vs. Cleveland Browns (+1.5)

The Broncos have traditionally been a team to "fade" this season. 4-5-1 versus the spread. 5-5 straight up. Before their bye week, the only team Denver had looked impressive against thus far has been the Kansas City Chiefs, limiting their offense twice over three weeks.

But with back-to-back strong outings on prime time against the Bills/Vikings - although a game they easily should have lost had the Bills not been so generous - they need to be taken more seriously with Sean Payton righting the ship.

Denver's defense opened the gates as an over machine, but it's changed in recent weeks with the under-hitting in their last 5 games. Their defense has played better than out they started the season. Some of that can be based on just general regression - they couldn't keep up the historically bad pace - but it needs to be noted that it's not the same rollover unit it was to start. Specifically, they have been better against the run, which was their big issue at the start of the year.

But the defensive improvements have come at the cost of the offense that has turned Russell Wilson into an ultra-conservative game manager. The team has totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in five of six games.

Ultimately, I love the under here. The Broncos' improved defense is no fluke, especially with their ability to home in on limiting No. 1 weapons.

The Browns are 7-3 toward the under this season, 8 of 10 last games have gone under the total for the Browns.

As for sides, Denver is just 3-3 as a favorite this season. They have won one game this season by more than 3 points.

The Browns’ average scoring margin is +4.7. Aside from the blowout loss to the Ravens earlier this season, they haven't lost any game by more than 4 points (both on the road). They have won 100% of their games decided by 3 points or less (likely not sustainable). All their wins have been blowouts (21, 24, 27 margins of victory) or super close games decided by an FG or less.

This team plays other teams tight every single week, even if they don't win.

My one caveat to fully backing the Browns here is that they have been a completely different animal defensively on the road than at home. Both of their legitimate losses have been on the road, while their defense has allowed 24-plus points in each away contest. Their offense has scored more in those games as well, but that's not a given with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB.

The Browns have to run the ball against a suspect Broncos run defense for them to have offensive success. They will likely build the gameplan around the rushing attack considering they posted -a 6% pass rate over expectation last week in DTR's second start.

Last note here. The Browns have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last nine games following a win. They obviously have won back-to-back, but it's been by razor-thin margins. And let's be honest. They should have lost against the Ravens.

They tend to flop following wins, and this could be a potential letdown spot.

This came is too close for me to handicap confidently - even though I slightly lean Broncos (-1). Rather just take the under at 35.5 or just avoid the game entirely based on the Browns' unusual defensive lapses in road contests this season.

Still, I like the game total under, and therefore I love a lot of the player props unders as well. Well, except for this one on tight end David Njoku.

Love the over at 35.5 receiving yards. Because Njoku has emerged as Dorian Thompson-Robinson's favorite target. Last week, Njoku was heavily targeted, catching 7 passes for 56 yards on 15 targets! (37% Target share). In the rookie's two starts, Njoku has a 28% target share, 22 targets, 13 catches and 102 receiving yards.

Njoku is a MUST-START in fantasy football next against Denver, a team that is BLEEDING production to tight ends this season. Most allowed to TEs this season. 4th in catches, 4th in catch rate and first in receiving yards (72/game).

My Picks:

  • Under 37

My Props:

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)

Kyler Murray is 5-9 as a starter dating back to last season, going 8-6 ATS (2-0 ATS this season).

Arizona has gone 6-5 ATS on the year despite a horrible defense and rotating QB room. But they have been great in front of their home crowd. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS at home this season. The Cardinals are 0-6 away from Arizona this season.

The Rams have gone just 3-5-2 ATS this season. Their 3 covers? Seattle twice and Arizona at home. Woof. The Rams are also 1-5 as underdogs ATS in their last six games played. Somehow, they pulled out another improbable win against the Seahawks. I've been burned twice this year in SEA-LAR matchups. But that's ALL they have done this year.

LA's defense is allowing the league's 6th-lowest passing TD percentage while boasting an above-average red zone defense (11th) while allowing the league's 5th-highest rushing TD percentage at a whopping 48%.

LA has also been super inconsistent all year long, as they seemingly can only put together 30 minutes of solid football any given Sunday. They have 7 points through three quarters against Seattle, and scored 10 to win in the fourth quarter.

Against offenses not-named the Arizona Cardinals (led by Joshua Dobbs on the road in Week 6) or Seahawks/Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season. Only twice (Both vs Seattle) have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

The Rams have Seattle's number as that is when they have played their best ball. Everybody else they have struggled to beat and compete with. The Rams are 2-5 straight up when they rush for less than 100 yards on offense. They are also 2-6 when they allowed 200-plus passing yards.

Cardinals the last two weeks with Murray back have averaged over 120 rushing yards and 200-plus passing yards.

The Rams are who we thought they were at the beginning of the season. A bad team.

And they will likely be without Cooper Kupp for this matchup. Take the Red Birds in the Nest at the best price you can find.

Onto the total...The Rams are 4-1 toward the under over their last five games. Even with Kupp healthy, they were hitting more unders than overs.

However, it's hard to argue this is a good spot for the Rams offense. Arizona's defense ranks 31st in total DVOA, 30th versus the pass and 29th versus the run. And every game played in Glendale Arizona has gone OVER the total (5-0).

I think the set O/U line is spot on at 44.5 so even though I lean toward the over, think it's more of a shy-away spot. Or just bet player props instead of the total.

For props, bet the under on Matthew Stafford's bloated passing yards prop - a number he hasn't hit in five straight games.

Only 1 week have the Cardinals NOT allowed an RB to rush for 59-plus yards against them this season.

Kyren Williams is coming off the IR, but I'd bet he will get back to his typical workload. Take the over on his suppressed rushing yards prop once it gets dropped.

My Picks:

  • Cardinals ML (+120)

My Props:

  • TBD

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills (+3)

We saw a heavy run game plan by the Eagles to expose the Chiefs' weaker run defense on Monday Night Football. They have shown the ability and welcomed rushing the ball at times this season in advantageous spots and Buffalo's poor run defense is the exact spot for them to keep the ground game going.

The Eagles' high-powered offense ranks 5th in points per game (27.3). Their fatal flaw had been in the red zone, but it's improved dramatically since the start. Now, it's 9th-best in the NFL.

The Eagles defense ranks 25th in red-zone defense - one of the easiest red-zone defenses the Bills have faced this season. Buffalo's red-zone offense ranks 3rd best in the NFL.

The average total between these two teams this season is 46. But Philly is 3-1 toward the over at home, where the games have averaged a whopping 56.5 points. Their last four games have been 2-2 O/U but three have been totals of 48-plus before this past week.

The Eagles have also won each of their last seven games at Lincoln Financial Field.

However, the Eagles have also covered just 2 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense.

By a half point and barely against the Cowboys back in Week 9. They also pushed twice. 2-2-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 points. Been very lucky. Buffalo has scored at least 20 points in 8 of their 11 games played this season.

The Eagles also wouldn't have covered last week if the Chiefs hadn't blown their scoring opportunities in the second half of MNF. A red-zone fumble by Travis Kelce and a massive drop in the end zone by Marquez Valdes-Scantling nuked their offense.

Again, they got lucky. In fact, the Eagles have been one of the luckiest teams in the NFL this season. The unluckiest team? The Buffalo Bills.

The Bills have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.

They were a mess entering Week 11 - even though their offense has been a top unit across several advanced metrics - but they righted the ship against Zach Wilson-led Jets squad.

Week 11 was more of the same from Buffalo. They have either dramatically underwhelmed or blown their opponents' doors off this season when at home. Their three strongest offensive outputs have come at home. 5-1 overall at home and 3-3 ATS. Along with 4 straight unders.

Road Buffalo has been much tougher to back. They are 1-4 straight up and ATS on the road/neutral sites this season despite being favorites in all contests.

Playing versus the Jets is the cure for all, but it might not be enough to get this Bills team truly over the hump.

However, the fact that this is a matchup featuring the luckiest team against the unluckiest team has me thinking contrarian. And that this could be an upset with some bizarre events likely to unfold.

After all, betting on Allen in a potential shootout isn't a bad way to maximize a bet. Keep in mind that nine of the Bills’ last 10 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

They're coming off 4 straight unders.

If we see a regression to the mean kick in massively here, we could easily see the Bills win in a wild shootout. If you want to play it safer take the over at 48.5 or Bills +3.5. But if you are feeling frisky, I'd back Buffalo ML (+145) against the Eagles playing on a short week.

As for props, I think the move is to rinse and repeat what we did last week. Attack DeVonta Smith and D'Andre Swift OVERs. The books have yet to fully adjust their numbers in the wake of the Dallas Goedert injury. I expect both guys to see an uptick in receiving usage as a result as we saw last week versus the Chiefs.

Swift caught 3 receptions for 31 yards, with a long of 20 yards. Smith led the Eagles receivers with 6 receptions on 8 targets (38% Target share), 99 yards, with a long catch of 41 yards

Last season after DG got hurt, Smith went on a tear posting 8 of 10 games played with 60-plus receiving yards. He's on a new streak now.

Meanwhile Swift has at least 2 receptions in 7 straight games. With Philly potentially facing a negative game script in a potential back-and-forth contest like last week, I like Swift to get over 2-plus catches AGAIN with the vacated target share left by Goedert.

This game could be a prime spot for some same-game parlay madness.

My Picks:

  • Bills +3
  • Over 48.5

My Props:

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

The Raiders are 5-0 toward the under at home this season. Each of the Chiefs’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line. Overall, they are 8-2 toward the under.

This is due in part to facing high closing game totals, their problems on offense and their defense stifling opposing offenses. They rank 4th overall in DVOA and 3rd in pass defense DVOA. 27th in rush defense DVOA.

These teams have combined for an O/U record of 4-17. These teams have averaged 38 total points.

The under is the play here folks.

I think the lines have appropriately adjusted to the Chiefs being a defensive-oriented team with the total in this game at a meager 42 or 43 points. It's weird that a game featuring Mahomes in a dome could be this low...but that's the new reality with this Chiefs offense.

And the Raiders defense has been underrated. 16th in DVOA. Tua Tagovailoa was the first QB they faced to throw for 300 yards against them last week. And they did limit Miami to just 20 points at home, despite them being a juggernaut in Miami.

As for sides...

The Chiefs have won each of their last 10 games following a loss.

The home team has covered in 6 of the last 7 Raiders' games. The Raiders are also 4-0 ATS over their last four games.

Still, the biggest mismatch is that the Raiders cannot stop the run - 4th in rushing yards allowed per game to RBs - and that is going to be an issue against Isiah Pacheco in the Chiefs ground game. Pacheco -against the No. 1 Philadelphia run defense - ran wild last Monday night, to the tune of 19 carries for 89 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, with his longest run being 24 yards.

I expect KC to deploy their run game, which is great for grinding out wins. But not necessarily covering massive spreads up to 8.5 points.

The Raiders have lost the first half in each of their last seven games as underdogs.

Would expect this trend to continue given how the Chiefs’ offense is great at the beginning of games, but they have struggled in the second halves.

Like the approach of laying anywhere between 4.5 to 5.5 on the first half spread in favor of KC on the road. KC ranks second in the NFL in first-half points scored per game (17.2). Their defense has allowed the third-fewest points in the first halves of games (7.6).

Don't need to deal with the second-half nonsense that KC has been going through. Scoreless in three second-halves.

I fully expect the Chiefs’ ELITE defense to keep the Raiders at bay even with their weakness against the run. Again, running Josh Jacobs 20-25 times won't get this game to shoot out. The Raiders have averaged just 20 points per game in O'Connell's four starts this season. Over the last three starts, the Raiders offense has had an -8% pass rate over expectation.

Take the over on Josh Jacobs' rushing yards prop set at 62.5 yards. The last four RBs the Chiefs have played have gone over 75 rushing yards. Also bet the under on Aidan O’Connell’s passing yardage prop. 9/10 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected total.

My Picks:

  • Under 43.5
  • KC -5.5 first half

My Props:

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Baltimore has covered the spread in the last seven of the last 9 games against a team with a winning record.

As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best. Versus bad teams - like what we saw 3 weeks ago versus the Cardinals - they tend to play with less urgency and composure.

But it remains to be seen how they "view" the 4-6 Chargers, who seem to be one more devastating loss from a coaching change.

Because this Chargers defense is just so bad. 32nd in yards per attempt, 27th in red-zone trips faced per game. The Baltimore defense is allowing the league's lowest yards per attempt.

The Ravens offense ranks 5th best in terms of third-down conversion rate, 4th in red-zone conversion rate and 4th in yards per pass attempt.

The Chargers have shown competence against bad teams like the Jets/Bears. The Ravens are on another level.

Ravens -3; in what could be the final game we see Brandon Staley coach the Chargers.

As for the total, I love the under even more than the Ravens -3.

Seven of the Chargers’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Ravens are also 6-5 toward the under. 10 of 13 last Ravens' games have gone UNDER the projected total.

But it's been mostly against bad QBs. Outside the dominant performance versus Jared Goff/Geno Smith at home, the Ravens have faced two rookie QBs making their first starts, an injured Joe Burrow, another backup QB in Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs.

Simply put, when they don't fear an opposing QB, the Ravens tend to go under the game total. They went over the total in the last two weeks with formidable efforts from Deshaun Watson and the Bengals QBs.

And although Justin Herbert falls into the category of a better quarterback, the lack of weapons outside Keenan Allen/Austin Ekeler has me concerned about what kind of offensive output the Chargers can create against a top-tier defense like Baltimore with extra rest.

It's another prime time under lock for me here. Especially with Mark Andrews missing as an integral part of the Ravens passing attack. I liked the under at 46.5, so I love it at the bloated 48.5 mark on Sunday Night Football.

These teams have averaged 46.5 points this season.

For props. Here's what you should know. Every QB the Chargers have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards prop.

Pair the Jackson passing yards prop with Isaiah Likely. The Chargers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends this season (67.5).

LA has also allowed the second-most receiving yards to WRs this season. Back to the Zay Flowers OVERs that we got robbed on last week due to a bogus penalty.

Even so Flowers, with a 98% snap count, contributed 43 yards on 3 receptions. The team is going to have to lean on their talented rookie more than ever without Mark Andrews the rest of the way. Back in Week 1, Flowers commanded 10 targets, catching 9 for 78 yards.

My Picks:

  • Ravens -3 
  • Under 48.5

My Props:

Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. Chicago Bears

When Chicago has established an effective ground game - as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Carolina and Detroit but not vs. the LA Chargers - their offense has been effective, and they have played games tight. 4-2 ATS in recent weeks.

But that could be problematic versus the Vikings, who have shut down opposing run games. 9th in run defense DVOA.

Only one RB the Vikings have faced all season has gone over 65 yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2. Over their the last 6 weeks, only one RB has surpassed their projected rushing total against Minnesota. Take the under on Bears RB props for Monday Night Football.

The market was sluggish backing the plucky Joshua Dobbs in Arizona, and they are making the same mistake again. Dobbs started 3-0 versus the spread as a member of the Cardinals with no expectations.

The Vikings’ average scoring margin is +2.1 with all but one of their 11 games played this season decided by 8 points or less. This team plays other teams tight every single week, even if they don't win. 6-0 ATS over the last 6 weeks. Fields is 2-4 ATS record this season (10-21-1 career ATS per the Action Network).

Minnesota's defense has ALSO been surging and has played a role in their playoff hunt.

Simply put, Dobbs and the Vikings find ways to win and cover games. Meanwhile, the Bears find ways to lose close games and not cover.

In this matchup back in Week 6, the Vikings won outright 19-13 without Justin Jefferson. Obviously, the Bears lost Fields in this game as well. But before he left the game, he was doing virtually nothing against the Vikings defense.

On 6 drives with Fields at QB, the Bears offense totaled 145 net yards. 3 punts, 2 field goals and interception, to go along with 4 sacks. Fields was just 6 of 10 passing for 58 yards. He was doing all his damage as a rusher with 48 yards on the ground.

With this Vikings defense surging I think they provide enough issues to Fields as a passer to give Minnesota the edge.

We know this game will be close at least from the Vikings side, so I'm fine laying -3.5 at home.

But I really do prefer the under overall.

Even though Justin Fields has been QB for the Bears they are perfect 6-0 toward the over this season. I say that because the Vikings are 8-3 toward the under this season, even after hitting 2 over in their last 3 games played. At home, they are 4-1 toward the under.

Yet another prime time under at 43.5.

The Bears have one of the league's best run defenses allowing just 64 yards per game to opposing backs at a league-low 3.4 yards per carry. Mattison was limited to just 44 rushing yards the last time he faced the Bears, and it took him 18 carries to get there. With him splitting more time with the more explosive Ty Chandler, he won't see the requisite volume to hit the over in this matchup.

My Picks:

  • Vikings -3
  • Under 43

My Props:

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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