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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 13)

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Get ready for an electrifying Week 13 in the NFL, presented with flair by BettingPros! I’m Andrew Erickson, back again to be your expert navigator in the thrilling world of NFL betting. This week, we’re ramping up the excitement as we delve into each game on the Week 13 slate, armed with razor-sharp insights and top-notch recommendations. We’re talking sides, totals, and those tantalizing player props that could be the secret ingredient to your single-game parlays.

A heads-up for the early birds: player props might be a bit scarce at the start of the week on platforms like Underdog and PrizePicks. But don’t fret, traditional sportsbooks will roll out their full array of player props as game day approaches. I’ll be on the lookout, adding more props with the best value as we march towards Sunday. So, make sure to circle back before kick-off to catch all the action-packed goodness in the player props market. And as always, stay tuned for my props-focused article that drops every  Saturday.

And check out my new weekly video on FantasyPros that highlights the week’s best early lines on Prizepicks.

Now, let’s take a quick flashback to Week 12’s showdowns. Think back to nine weeks ago, when we were just nudging past the .500 mark midway through the season.

Below, you’ll find the official tally of our recommended picks from Week 12 – not including the Thanksgiving slate of games.

But get ready—Week 13 is set to be a rollercoaster of NFL betting adventure! 🏈💰🎉

Week 12

  • Spread: 4-7
  • Totals: 8-2
  • Player Props: 16-9

Overall: 28-18 (61%)

2023 season

  • Spread: 68-76 (48%)
  • Totals: 92-67 (58%)
  • Player Props: 179-168 (52%)
  • ML: 6-4

Overall: 312-293 (52%)

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

NFL Betting Primer: Week 13

As featured over the last month, I will feature my top bets listed at the top between underdogs, favorites and O/Us. Consider it a quick-hitting guide to access my top plays. Note that my favorite player props get released in a separate article released every Saturday.

Top Favorites:

  • Lions -4.5
  • Steelers -6.5
  • Chiefs -6
  • Jaguars -9.5

Top Underdogs:

  • Titans +1
  • Broncos +3

Top Totals:

  • TEN/IND under 42.5
  • PHI/SF over 47.5
  • DET/NO under 47
  • NE/LAC under 39.5
  • WAS/MIA over 49.5
  • KC/GB under 42.5
  • DEN/HOU under 47.5
  • ATL/NYJ under 33.5

Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts (-1)

The Titans have covered the spread in each of their last four games at Nissan Stadium. 4-0 straight up in the Music City. If you have read any version of the BettingPros Primer this season, you’ll be strongly aware of the home/road splits with the Tennessee Titans. Fade them on the road but back at that home (just last like last week).

The Titans are losers of 9 straight on the road.

This team plays vastly differently at home than it does on the road. 24.8 points per game at home with wins against the Chargers/Bengals/Falcons/Panthers. Just 12.3 points on the road.

They have a bad offensive line that doesn’t travel well. But they play much better at home where their offense has not only scored points but posted monster yardage totals. The Titans have averaged over 136 rushing yards per game at home this season (10th).

The Colts run defense has been gashed since they lost Grover Stewart to a 6-game suspension.

Since Week 7 they have faced 5 RBs who have all gone OVER their projected rushing totals. The last two have gone for 88-plus rushing yards.

Ride the Big Dog, Derrick Henry, for another week. Henry is NOTORIOUS for steamrolling defenses in early December. 5.5 career yards per carry in December for Henry – the highest mark in any month.

Indianapolis is 7-4 ATS this season, and have been formidable on the road. 4-1 on the road this season.

As for the total, 9 of the last 10 games have gone UNDER for Tennessee. At home this season they are 2-2 versus the O/U. More importantly, ten of the Titans’ last 11 games following a win have gone UNDER the total points line.

Considering the Titans also have the 4th-best red zone defense – I think the under is the firm play here.

The fear is that explosive plays allowed by both defenses could shoot this game over the total.

The Colts have been one of the few “over” machines this season, boasting an impressive 7-4 record toward the over. However, one of their unders came in this same matchup back in Week 5. The Colts won 23-16 as 2.5-point home dogs playing short of the 43.5-point total.

I bet the Titans +2 early in the week but feel strongly enough to back them with the to just win outright based on the most updated numbers.

Also lean toward the under, with my projection having the Titans controlling more of this game. Star running back Jonathan Taylor also won’t play, which removes another explosive playmaker from the equation.

My Picks:

  • Titans +1

My Props:

New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)

Full disclosure, I hate this game. You have the horrible tanking Patriots at home against the Chargers – who are the absolute kings of disappointment in the betting space.

Both teams are so bad. The Chargers defense ranks 30th in yards per attempt and 27th in red-zone trips faced per game.

The Patriots offense ranks 17th in red-zone conversion rate, 29th in yards per attempt and 27th in third-down conversion rate.

Ultimately, I “settle” on the Chargers -6 and to win based on the massive difference in the two starting QBs.

Justin Herbert is too good to not win by a touchdown against a horrible Patriots team, even on the road. Brandon Staley is coaching for his job and must win this game.

Also don’t hate the idea of betting on the Chargers 1st half spread at 3 points. They have been a strong first-half offense which the Patriots have been not. They have led in the first quarter in 54.5% of their games versus the Patriots (18.2%).

The Chargers have shown competence against bad teams like the Jets/Bears. The Patriots are on that same wavelength if not a tier lower.

Case I point, the New England Patriots have the worst overall record and ATS in the AFC (18.2%).

The Patriots offense is in complete disarray, with unknowns who the starting quarterback will even be. Most likely Bailey Zappe after Mac Jones was benched in Week 12.

I’d imagine they continue to run the football, with Rhamondre Stevenson seeing 20-plus carries in back-to-back games. Even so, a run-heavy approach doesn’t translate to wins or actual points. The Chargers run defense has also been solid versus the run this season, ranking toward the middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed per game.

LA has been much worse defending RBs in the passing game, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA against RBs. So back Stevenson to have a productive game as both a rusher/receiver, regardless of how the game shakes out. He will get fed and post strong yardage totals.

As for the points total, I love the under more than any side.

Eight of the Chargers’ last 9 games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Patriots games have gone UNDER in three of their last 5 games.

These teams have combined for a 16-6 record toward the under averaging 42 points scored. The Patriots are 3-2 toward the under at home this season.

With the game total likely going under – unless we get short fields created by turnovers – you’ll want to mix in some player prop unders as well. Take the under on Chargers RB Austin Ekeler and his rushing yardage props.

Given his sluggish play the last few games, I’d opt for less than 51.5 rushing yards for Ekeler in Week 13 versus the Patriots. Their defense is stout against RBs allowing the league’s second-lowest yards per carry (3.5). Ekeler has also surpassed 51.5 rushing yards only twice since returning from injury in Week 6 (29% hit rate).

My Picks:

  • Under 39.5
  • Chargers -5.5

My Props:

New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions (-4.5)

This was another game that I jumped on very early. The Saints continue to be one of the most overrated teams in the NFL, and the Lions are coming off a prime-time disappointment on Thanksgiving. Perfect time to buy low on Detroit. Because New Orleans – who could be without Rashid Shaheed (quad), Chris Olave (concussion), Cameron Jordan (ankle) and Marcus Maye – I have zero confidence for.

The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games.

The only NFC teams that are worse ATS than the Saints (2-8-1): The Panthers. Who just fired their head coach.

Meanwhile, the Lions have been one of the most profitable teams to back. I won’t be swayed by a divisional loss on a short week where Goff turned the ball over 3 times (3 fumbles). The Lions have 7 turnovers on offense over their last 2 games. Their defense has generated one turnover. That’s why they haven’t covered in back-to-back games. They should right the ship against the Saints. The recent bias related to turnovers – flukey by nature – has suppressed this spread, when Detroit should be favored by more points.

The Lions are 6-2 ATS as favorites over their last 8 games. Overall, they’ve covered in their last 16 of 21 games (76%). They have been extremely profitable since the middle of last season, as they are 23-8 (74%) vs. the spread in games with 54 points or fewer scored since current offensive coordinator Ben Johnson took on a larger role in calling the offense. Last week the game went OVER and they didn’t cover. Lower-scoring games they tend to cover at a higher rate. In fact, the 4 games they failed to cover the spread – all hit the over. 3 of the 4 went north of 50 points. Not the case here in Week 13…

For the total…

Each of the Saints’ last eight games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line. 3-1 toward the under at home with an average of 40.5 points scored.

New Orleans brings out the unders against the best of them, and that’s where I lean with Jared Goff playing on the road (even in a dome). This game opened up at 44.5 and has been bet up to 46. I am completely fine going in the opposite direction.

Note that the Lions’ allowing big plays on defense last week – even though they allowed just 3 plays of 20-plus yards in Week 12 – is not likely to be repeated. On the year, they have been one of the best units at limiting big plays. Their red zone defense is their biggest weakness, but that is where the Saints are at their worst with Derek Carr. New Orleans has the 29th-ranked red-zone offense.

My Picks:

  • Lions -4.5
  • Under 47

My Props:

  • N/A

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Give me the Steel Curtain at home in this revamped offense in the post-Matt Canada era.

The Steelers have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a losing record. They take care of business against bad teams.

Arizona’s been plucky at times this season – particularly at home – but they are still a bad overall team even with Kyler Murray at quarterback. The Cardinals have lost each of their last nine road games.

With the Steelers offense showing signs of life and improvement last week – the Steelers broke their 45-game streak of games with fewer than 400 yards – I think they convert those yardage amounts into actual points against a horrendous defense.

The Cardinals defense is HOT garbage – 31st in points allowed per game (27). Arizona ranks 30th in total DVOA, 31st versus the pass and 30th versus the run.

Kyler Murray is 5-10 as a starter dating back to last season, going 8-7 ATS (2-1 ATS this season).

Arizona has gone 6-6 ATS on the year despite a horrible defense and rotating QB room. But it’s only been at home where they have been good. The Cardinals are 4-2 ATS at home this season.

The Cardinals are 0-6 away from Arizona this season. Woof. Back the Steelers to not only win by 6-plus points but bet their team total. Last week, we had this in the bag over 17.5 points.

Jaylen Warren fumbled inside the Bengals’ 15-yard line on the Steelers’ second drive.

On the next drive, Pat Freiermuth was interfered with inside the 5-yard line, but no penalty was called.

Two potential TDs that never happened in the first half. 3 points instead of 14 points.

In the second half, they finally scored a TD on the first drive. On the next drive, they drove the length of the field just to lose out on another TD with an incomplete pass to Johnson in the red zone. If Mike Tomlin challenged the play, it likely would have been called a TD.

On the final drive they settled for 3 to put the game out of reach for the Bengals.

The yardage is indicative that Pittsburgh should have scored more points last week. It won’t happen twice in a row.

This team OWES me points, and money after they dropped the ball on scores in Week 12. I was 3 yards away from a hitting a 6-leg parlay if Johnson’s catch is ruled a TD…

But I’m not bitter, as I am going RIGHT back to the overs on the Steelers props. Love this in a same-game parlay as I did last week.

Kenny Pickett has gone over his passing yards prop in all but one game before his injury. And he hit the over last week. Arizona is allowing nearly 240 passing yards per game. Correlate with all his pass-catchers. Arizona is allowing the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs this season.

For the game total….

Eight of the Steelers’ last nine games have gone UNDER the total points line. 9-2 under MACHINES overall. However, the regression will hit, and this seems like a spot where we could get a potential over. The line has moved since it opened at 39.5 to 41.5. The “sharps” are buying this Steelers offense to put on a show. I’m game.

But full disclosure, I did already bet the UNDER early at 40.5 –  because after all, it’s still a Steelers game at home. And even if they hold up their end of the bargain, Arizona might not do enough – even though they are the kings of garbage time – to put it over 40 points. Likely a shy-away spot, as I’d rather just back the Steelers taking care of business at home either by the point spread or backing their team total.

For Cardinals props – currently not many are listed with all their receivers on the injury report – James Conner has an interesting rushing line to target. Listed at 61.5 yards, his projection has him flying under this number at closer to 46.5 yards. The Steelers run defense has also been better since the return of Cameron Heyward four weeks ago. Just 3.6 yards per carry allowed to RBs. Over that span, they have held Aaron Jones, Jerome Ford and Joe Mixon to less than 40 rushing yards. Conner also rushed for 60-plus yards twice in his last 5 games played. Over that span, zero top-24 RB fantasy finishes.

My Picks:

  • Steelers -6.5
  • Steelers over 23.5 points

My Props:

New York Jets vs. Atlanta Falcons (-2)

My excitement for Steelers-Cardinals helps me forget that this game even exists. But hey, if there’s money to be made, we must take advantage of it.

I struggle mightily picking sides in this spot, because I don’t feel any sense of confidence backing Desmond Ridder on the road. As I have pointed out throughout the season, we back Atlanta at home and fade them on the road. Last week, they won outright as underdogs. At home. Pitch and catch. Not the case here playing at MetLife Stadium the anti-Coors Fields of the NFL. 11 games played. 9 unders between the Jets/Giants. And the only reason the Black Friday game went over was due to two pick-sixes.

The Falcons own a 1-4 record on the road, where they have averaged 15 points per game.

However, if I have to pick a side in a FG game, I still settle on the Falcons. Because I like backing the positive regression for the Falcons in one-score games. Last year, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 one-possession games.

This year? They started at 3-1 in one-possession games. They dropped three games in a row by scores of 5, 3 and 2, bringing their one-possession game record to 3-4. They won last week by nine points. I don’t think this one-score losing streak keeps up.

But keep in mind, the Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games. The Falcons have lost each of their last four games against teams that held a losing record.

Not good trends that work in favor of the Dirty Birds covering as road favorites.

But the Jets man. Tim Boyle is going to start again, after a horrible outing on Black Friday.

The Jets offensive drives went as follows: 5 Punts, Pick-Six on a Hail Mary Attempt, Halftime, Punt, Interception, TD!, Turnover on downs. Woof.

New York’s only hope on winning this game comes down to their defense. But Atlanta has an offensive philosophy to run the football, which works in their favor in two ways. It exposes the weaker part of the Jets’ defense and hides Ridder from losing the game. Check and mate. Sorry, Robert Saleh. As home underdogs, the Jets are 3-3 ATS.

Just bet the under on this game and move on. I got this early at 35.5, but if it’s going under…it’s going WAY under. 34 is still a fine number. Be sure to follow me on the BettingPros App to get notified when I place my early bets to get ahead of line movement (usually Sunday night). I’ll also try to do a better job posting these plays in the BP Discord NFL picks channel.

Five of the Jets’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line. Atlanta is 8-3 toward the under this season.

These 2 teams are a combined 8-14 toward the under this season. These teams have averaged 38.5 points this season.

As for props, I teased some same-game parlay action. Here’s what I am looking at. Ridder under 182.5 passing yards. Fully expecting the Falcons – on the road – to hide Ridder and unleash Bijan Robinson against the Jets. New York is a run funnel.

The Jets defense is facing the league’s LOWEST pass play rate at 51%. Meanwhile, the Falcons want to run no matter what. Last week, the Falcons posted a pass rate over expectation of -16%. Ridder attempted just 21 passes.

On the road this season, Drake London has not had more than 55 yards in any contest. Also has fewer than 50 yards in 3 out of 5 road games. The Jets are also allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to opposing WRs.

The Jets are weaker against the run, allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game at over 100 yards to opposing RBs. Bijan Robinson’s usage has been on an upward trajectory, and he’s gone over 90 yards in back-to-back games. He will continue to roll against the run-funnel Jets defense.

To tie a complete bow on the Falcons, go MORE than on Younghoe Koo’s 1.5 field goals. I (we) expect a low-scoring game. And that means field goals. The Jets rank last in FGs allowed per game (3) this season.

My Picks:

  • Under 33.5

My Props:

Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins (-9)

Miami is 4-1 ATS at home this season, winning by no less than two TDs in all but one contest. But they have not been nearly as great on the road. Just 3-3 ATS and straight up.

Even so, they have been at their best against bad teams. The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.

I believe – as does the market – Miami can mostly overwhelm bad teams and fail to beat good teams. We should see more of the same in Week 13. Especially with how bad the Commanders’ defense is at allowing explosive plays. Don’t need to provide much analysis for how the Dolphins offense can have a field day outing against this secondary unit.

Miami’s defense has also played better than to start the season, allowing fewer than 285 yards per game over their last four games. 2-2 toward the U/O.

But the Commanders are a feisty bunch that tend to stay in games with their pass-happy approach.

Sam Howell has been very matchup-based, with the Giants being one team that has thwarted his passing efforts. They play man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Who ranks third in that category? The Dallas Cowboys, another team that gave the Commanders offense trouble.

But the Dolphins are a much more balanced defense playing average rates of man/zone coverages. That benefits the Commanders offense. But it does come with the caveat that Howell will have to be more methodical with his approach. Miami’s defense is the No. 1 defense in limiting explosive plays. No.1 against allowing the fewest explosive rushes.

Also hate to beat a dead horse here, but the Commanders’ covering always goes back to turnovers.

When the Commanders have failed ATS they have combined for 17 offensive turnovers. In the 5 games they have covered, just 3 turnovers on offense.

The Commanders have lost each of their last four home games. They are 1-4 straight up and 0-5 ATS at home. 0-2 ATS as home underdogs versus the Eagles/Bills.

As just underdogs regardless of game location, the Commanders are 5-3 ATS this season. 3-5 straight up.

If the number moves into the double-digits for the Commanders, I’ll take them as home underdogs. But with the lines at -9.5, I am probably just going to shy away. Let’s not forget that the Dolphins didn’t cover against the Raiders at home. And had it not been for the Hail Mary pick six on Black Friday (cleverly coined the ‘Hell Mary’) they would have gone into halftime last week, up just 10-6 against the Boyle-led Jets. Before last week’s cover, Miami was 0-3 ATS on the road.

Prefer my action on the total.

Each of the Commanders’ last three games have gone OVER the total points line. Should be noted that if Washington doesn’t allow 20 points on defense, they are a perfect 4-0 toward the under. When they allow 20 points on defense – 7-1 toward the OVER.

Miami’s odds of scoring over 20.5 points? -625. Aka an implied probability of 86%.

Take the over. Washington’s defense can’t stop anyone. And their offense will do whatever it takes to crawl back and try to keep pace.

These teams are averaging 52 points per game and the average score in games at Washington has been 51 points.

As for props, don’t need to overthink this one. Just roll out a Miami onslaught.

97.5 yards might not be enough for Tyreek Hill against the Washington Commanders’ defense.

Take the MORE than on Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards at 280.5 yards.

Jaylen Waddle’s number is also too low at just 69.5 yards.

My Picks:

  • Over 49.5

My Props:

Houston Texans vs. Denver Broncos (-3)

The Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites (0-4 ATS as a favorite this season) and just 2-2 straight up including losses at both Atlanta and Carolina, when they were small road favorites.

A lot of people were confused why the Texans were dogs at home last week, and the Jaguars showed exactly why that was the case defeating them 24-21 as 1.5-point road favorites. We backed the Jags last week, and came out on top.

The Texans are a team with a lot of public sentiment – driven by the rookie QB C.J. Stroud hype- that doesn’t necessarily translate favorably into the betting space. When the team has had high expectations, they have most often underdelivered.

And that’s even with them playing better at home. 4-2 at home this season (but only 2-4 ATS).

Overall, Houston is 5-4 versus the spread over their last 9 games. Their last 4 wins have been by 7 or fewer points. When they win it’s by close margins.

Stroud continues to check off all the boxes as a franchise QB – bouncing back after a three-interception game in Week 11. Threw for another 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Jaguars, while rushing for another score. Took only 4 sacks and threw zero interceptions.

But that was versus a very bad Jaguars pass defense. The Broncos revamped defensive unit will throw a lot more at the young star QB.

The Broncos started out as the team to “fade” this season. But after a horrible start, they have battled their way to a 5-5-1 record versus the spread. 6-5 straight up. Before their bye week, the only team Denver had looked impressive against thus far has been the Kansas City Chiefs, limiting their offense twice over three weeks. But it’s become a new routine for their defense to present major problems for offenses they face.

As a result, five of the Broncos’ last six games have gone UNDER the total points line.

But the defensive improvements have come at the cost of the offense that has turned Russell Wilson into an ultra-conservative game manager. The team has totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in six of 7 games.

The Texans have gone under in six of their last 9 games, which featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. When faced with high-scoring offenses, the games have been shooting out. Against bad offenses – like Denver – the games FLY under.

The Texans are also 4-2 toward the under at home.

Ultimately, I love the under here. The Broncos’ improved defense is no fluke, especially with their ability to home in on limiting No. 1 weapons. Both defenses have above average red-zone defenses. These teams have averaged just 46 total points scored this season.

Take the under here.

I also have some concerns that the Texans might be baited more into running the football against Denver’s suspect run defense. Both their RBs (Devin Singletary/Dameon Pierce) are back to full health, and we have seen them run the ball heavily against bad run defending teams like Carolina, Cincinnati and Arizona. Again, just another reason to pound the under on the bloated total.

As for sides, I think the Broncos with the field goal hook (+3.5) is enough for me to back them in what should be another close game. Easily could see a scenario where the Texans win, but the Broncos cover the spread.

Tank Dell made significant contributions with 5 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown (8 targets, 22% target share) in Week 12. He had all of his production come in the first half alone. Totaled another 100-plus air yards (125) while leading the team in routes run. He also had ANOTHER 62-yard bomb pass taken off the board because of an illegal shift penalty on Dell. Simply put, that’s the only thing that can stop this rookie. A self-inflicted penalty.

More than 62.5 receiving yards in Week 13 versus the Broncos on Prizepicks? Yes, please. For some reason, Nico Collins has a close projection at 62.5 yards. Put respect on DELL.

My Picks:

  • Under 47.5
  • Broncos +3

My Props:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) vs. Carolina Panthers

The line opened at Buccaneers -6, but some money has come in on the Panthers to push the line to 3.5. No doubt this comes in the wake of the firing of Panthers head coach, Frank Reich, along with other key coaches he hired after becoming the head coach. We’ve seen plenty of examples of teams rebounding after they fired their head coach – or some other coach scapegoat – so there’s some semblance of credibility to it.

Special teams coach Chris Tabor has been appointed as interim head coach, while offensive coordinator Thomas Brown will assume play-calling duties, as he did from Weeks 8-10. The Panthers went 2-1 ATS over that time, while also picking up their lone win of the season.

The move away from Reich might not be ideal for everyone in Carolina. Adam Thielen – from Weeks 8-10 – totaled fewer than 45 receiving yards in 2 of the 3 contests. Thielen has turned back into a pumpkin folks. Start taking the unders. Less than 60.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks might be the lock of Week 13 even if Young is throwing the ball more.

The Buccaneers have covered the spread in four of their last five games, falling just short of +2.5 last week versus the Colts.  The Panthers have lost each of their last six road games.

The Buccaneers’ defensive strengths are in their ability to stop the run. 13th in run defense DVOA. But 20th in pass defense DVOA. The Buccaneers’ secondary is a mess, and most if not all QBs have been able to take advantage of it.

Their biggest issue is on third downs. 29th in third down conversion rate. TB’s defense is all about bending but not breaking. They stifle offenses near the end zone, boasting the league’s second-best red zone defense.

The Panthers are the exact opposite. Dead last in DVOA against the run, but 22nd against the pass. The fourth-best defense on third downs. But 31st in the red zone.

Offensively, the Panthers are 19th in the red zone scoring offense. Also, 20th in the third-down conversions rate.  Tampa is 15th on third downs, while 27th in red zone scoring offense.

I’d like to think that Bryce Young can have some success against a weak secondary, specifically with how bad their defense is defending third downs.

This is an overall bizarre matchup with two teams “strengths” not matching the weaknesses of their opponents. This raises the question of whether or not either team will shake it’s own identity to expose a favorable matchup.

The Buccaneers have been pass-happy all year – but that has been more related to the matchup CALLING for pass-heavy game scripts. Their season-long pass rate over expectation is 0%.

But last week, it was -6% against a weaker Colts run defense. 5th-highest rush rate on early downs among teams in Week 12.

Carolina had +5% pass rate over expectation with Thomas Brown calling plays from Weeks 8-10. 4th-highest pass play rate on early downs at 64%. The last 2 weeks when Reich took back play calling? -9% PROE.

Weeks 1-7 before he gave up play calling the first time: -3% PROE. 49% pass play rate on early downs under neutral game script conditions.

Based on these findings, I’m confident both teams will attack their defense’s weaknesses, even if it takes them out of what they have traditionally done this season.

That means we should see a heavy run-game approach from the Buccaneers and a pass-heavy approach from the Panthers. Tampa Bay is the ultimate pass funnel, so we should see Bryce Young chuck the ball.

10/11 QBs to play a full game versus Tampa Bay have gone OVER their passing yardage projection. Take over Young’s passing yardage totals at 196.5 passing yards.

Correlate with the over on Rachaad White’s 57.7 rushing yards prop. Also, add in the Baker Mayfield UNDER his passing yardage prop.

9 of 10 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season. I prefer the yards versus both the completions and attempts (although the Draft Prop Cheat Sheet likes all the unders).

I lean more towards the props in this game, versus the sides/totals. My confidence stems from what I expect each offense to do, but how efficiently they do so is the major question mark

I still ultimately lean toward the under at 37, but the value is long gone after it opened at 39.5. I got it at 39.

Each of the Panthers’ last five games have gone UNDER the total points line. The Bucs are 1-4 toward the under at home. With an average score of 32 points. And seven of the Buccaneers’ last 9 games have gone UNDER the total points line. Last week went over, but that was against the over MACHINE Colts.

As for sides, I ultimately settle on the Buccaneers -5.5 just based on their overall body of work. They have one of the better records ATS this season (64%) and they are at home. But again, more of a shy away spot as the Buccaneers have played mostly close games (-1.4 average scoring margin). Although it should be noted that despite all their losses, they are 2-1 as a favorite and their last 3 wins have been by 10 or more points.

Take all the Miles Sanders unders you can find. He was signed as a veteran free agent by the coaching regime that just got canned. There’s a chance he is barely used at all in the wake of new coaches taking over. And when Thomas Brown (current play caller) was calling plays from Weeks 8-10, Sanders had rushing attempt totals of 2, 6 and 2. The only way this beats us, is if Sanders is made a straight healthy scratch before kickoff.

My Picks:

  • Under 36.5
  • Buccaneers -3.5

My Props:

Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3)

The 49ers opened as 2.5-point road favorites against the NFL’s best team…based on W-L record. But by the sportsbook numbers, SF is the better team – when they are healthy and have everybody at their disposal.

And eventually, the thin margins that the Eagles are running on will run out as the NFL’s luckiest team.

Case in point, the Eagles have also covered just 3 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense.

One by a half point.

Another barely against the Cowboys back in Week 9.

The Chiefs gifted the Eagles another cover with blown opportunities in the red zone and dropped TD passes.

And most recently in a Week 12 OT victory against Buffalo, that the Bills had in the bag to win outright.

The Eagles also pushed twice when their defense has been exposed.

3-2-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 points. Been very lucky.

The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in 8 of their 11 games played this season. During their 3-game skid, they only scored 17 points in each contest while dealing with injuries.

SF has so much firepower when healthy that I think they can go toe-toe with the Eagles and come away with a road victory. When healthy, there’s no question in my mind who the best team in the NFL is. They’ll prove it on Sunday.

For the total, I think this is an easy over spot.

Two elite offenses.

But the Eagles defense is the weakest unit. Philly’s defense ranks 28th in red-zone defense.

The 49ers’ red-zone offense ranks 6th best in the NFL.

The average total between these two teams this season is 47.5.

But Philly is 4-1 toward the over at home, where the games have averaged a whopping 59.54 points. Their last five games have been 3-2 O/U but four have been totals of 48-plus scores.

I love the player props in this game that should be a shootout. Again, these two defenses rank first and second respectively in pass play rate faced on defense. Buckle up.

Brandon Aiyuk made significant contributions with 50 receiving yards, including a 28-yard touchdown on 4 targets on Thanksgiving. Aiyuk’s uber efficiency allows him to be a fantasy star even when the volume is coming his way. Behind CMC, he’s by far the best fantasy asset on the 49ers. And the schedule is juicy for him to have some epic spike weeks down the stretch. You better take his receiving yards more than. Prizepicks has him at an egregious 60 yards…

But after games in which he totaled 60 or fewer yards, Aiyuk has posted no less than 76 receiving yards the following week. Projections have him close to 75 yards against the Eagles defense that ranks bottom-5 in yards per game allowed to WRs.

Correlate Aiyuk with Brock Purdy with MORE than 251.5 passing yards. The Eagles rank 4th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game at 255.7 while facing the NFL’s highest pass rate. Extra time to prepare for the Eagles overrated defense will have the 49ers aerial attack at full throttle.

The 49ers should also face a TON of passing volume from the Eagles’ side. Their defense has also allowed 60-plus receiving yards to 8 different WRs over the last 7 games.

The over has hit in 7/11 of games for opposing No. 1 WRs facing the 49ers, including four of 6 games with 100 yards-plus allowed.

My Picks

  • Over 47.5
  • 49ers -3

My Props

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cleveland Browns (-4)

The Rams have gone just 4-5-2 ATS this season. Their 4 covers? Seattle twice and Arizona twice.

Against offenses not-named the Cardinals, Seahawks or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season. Only thrice (Both vs Seattle and Arizona) have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

If it’s not an NFC West Bird Team they are facing, the Rams have been tough to back in the betting streets. Everybody else they have struggled to beat and compete with.

The Rams have also failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games at SoFi Stadium following a win.

The Rams are 2-5 straight up when they rush for less than 100 yards on offense. They are also 3-6 when they allowed 200-plus passing yards.

Meanwhile, the Browns have won each of their last seven games following a loss. They are the flip-floppers, flopping after wins and coming out on top after losses.

And it’s hard to argue this is a great spot for the Rams offense compared to last week. The Browns defense runs laps around the Cardinals’ horrible unit, although the injuries to Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward are super concerning.

Also, the Browns defense has been a  different animal defensively on the road than at home. All 3 of their legitimate losses have been on the road, while their defense has allowed 24-plus points in each away contest. Each of the Browns’ last six road games have gone OVER the total points line.

The Browns’ average scoring margin is +2.7. Aside from the blowout loss to the Ravens/Broncos earlier this season and last week, they haven’t lost any game by more than 4 points (all road losses).

They have won 100% of their games decided by 3 points or less (likely not sustainable). All their wins have been blowouts (21, 24, 27 margins of victory) or super close games decided by an FG or less.

This team tends to play other teams tight every single week, even if they don’t win.

On the surface this seems so simple to just take the Rams at home against a Browns team that could be trotting out Joe Flacco at quarterback if Dorian Thompson-Robinson misses due to a concussion. But the line has moved from -4.5 to -3.5 for the Rams. Is it just as simple as the Browns finding a way to win when nobody expects it – as they have seemingly done all year? They are 2-3 as an underdog this season.

There’s just too much going on in this game for me to confidently back either side. The Rams can’t deliver against teams not-named the Seahawks/Cardinals. They don’t perform well after wins. The Browns DO perform extremely well after losses, but they might start their fourth QB of the year in Week 13. Their defense has been bad on the road (but is Sofi a road game…hmm) and they are dealing with injuries to key defenders. Unless we get more clarity on Garrett/Ward playing, I’m staying away from sides here.

As for the total, when in doubt take the under.

The Browns are 7-4 toward the under this season, while 8 of the 11 last games have gone under the total for the Browns. But as I cited before, hardly a SMASH under with how the Browns defense has underwhelmed on the road.

The Rams are 4-2 toward the under over their last 6 games. Even with Cooper Kupp healthy, they were hitting more unders than overs.

For props: This one comes courtesy of the Prizepicks Cheat Sheet. I mentioned the Matthew Stafford less than on his passing yards last week, and it came through with flying colors. Take less than Stafford’s bloated passing yards prop at 239.5 passing yards – a number he hasn’t hit in six straight games. The Browns defense ranks first in fewest passing yards allowed per game this season at 142 yards…Even with the defensive injuries, I think Stafford goes under this number.

My Picks

  • Under 40.5

My Props

Green Bay Packers vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Green Bay is 4-1 toward the under at home this season. Six of the Chiefs’ last seven games have gone UNDER the total points line. Overall, they are 8-3 toward the under.

This is due in part to facing high closing game totals, their problems on offense and their defense stifling opposing offenses. They rank 8th overall in DVOA and 3rd in pass defense DVOA. 27th in rush defense DVOA.

These teams have combined for an O/U record of 8-14. These teams have averaged 40.5 total points.

Another under bet on Sunday Night Football? You. Bet. Especially with both teams coming off impromptu overs hitting in Week 12.

From a sides perspective,

The biggest mismatch is that the Packers cannot stop the run – 6th in rushing yards allowed per game to RBs while facing the league’s 4th-highest run rate – and that is going to be an issue against Isiah Pacheco in the Chiefs ground game. Pacheco -against the No. 1 Philadelphia run defense – ran wild in Week 11 to the tune of 19 carries for 89 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per attempt, with his longest run being 24 yards.

This past week he was productive again, rushing 15 times for 55 yards, finding the end zone twice on 6 red-zone touches.

I expect KC to deploy their run game, which is great for grinding out wins and hitting unders.

I also fully expect the Chiefs’ ELITE defense to keep the Packers at bay even with their weakness against the run.

Because Green Bay has been one of the league’s worst rushing offenses. Both A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones are on the injury report. Concerned they will not be able to do enough even in a plus home matchup.

The Packers are 2-4 ATS in the last six games as underdogs and 3-2 overall at home. 4-5 overall as straight dogs.

They’ve hit on big plays in back-to-back weeks to come away with wins against both the Lions and Chargers. But it’s been against two horrible secondaries.

These defenses are not the Chiefs, that are allowing the 5th-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. 4th-fewest passing yards and tied for second-best in yards per attempt faced (6.2).

The Packers are 5-6 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) Rams (led by Brett Rypien), Chargers team coached by Brandon Staley and the Lions. Aside from the Lions win, I am hardly impressed.

Don’t get things confused. Even if the Packers have looked better on offense this team is still bad. Take the Chiefs to win by a touchdown.

Only two QBs that have faced the Packers this season have gone for 270-yards plus.

Take the under on Patrick Mahomes at 271.5 passing yards. Gone under in 3 of his last 5.

Also bet the under on Jordan Love’s 230.5 passing yardage prop. 8/10 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected total this season.

Do not be a prisoner of the moment. Christian Watson has one game this season (last week) with 4-plus catches. This 3.5 line is way too high for a WR with a 12.5% over hit rate on his receptions prop. KC is also allowing the league’s second-lowest completion rate to WRs (55.6%) and the 7th-fewest catches overall.

Love spreads the ball too much between all his receivers to be confident enough to back the over on Watson. Yardage he can get there on one ball. But for him to catch 4 balls, he must be peppered with more targets. And the downfield looks he gets tend to not translate into many receptions.

Last week was the perfect spot for him, and he delivered on the splash play for the first time all year. But as alluded to the Chiefs’ defense will be tougher for him to play against, especially with Love’s tendency to spread the targets to all his receivers.

My Picks

  • Under 42.5
  • Chiefs -6

My Props

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5)

The Jaguars have won seven of their last eight games. 6-1 as favorites. The Jaguars are 73% ATS this season (8-3), No.1 in the AFC. 7-1 ATS and straight up over their last 8 games. 6-1 ATS as a favorite.

The Bengals are 1-3 as underdogs this season despite facing the league’s most difficult schedule.

Trevor Lawrence is coming off back-to-back elite performances, citing that his knee finally feels healthy after he got banged up a few weeks back. And I think the Bengals’ horrible defense will not have many answers for the Jaguars offense.

They rank 6th-worst in points per game and last in yards allowed per game (457) over the last three weeks.

The defense is a disaster. 28th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. 26th overall in DVOA.

Take the Jags with the superior roster and team. Completely different class than the Burrow-less Bengals and their bottom-dwelling defense.

Ten of the Bengals’ last 12 games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.

These teams have combined for an O/U record of 10-12.

On the props side of life…

Evan Engram had 5 receptions from 8 targets with a Team-high 22% target share in Week 12 contributing 49 yards. He remains steady as they come, but still has not scored based on his ugly red-zone role. That hurts in fantasy, but not for hitting his projected betting number. Engram came through with MORE than in this last matchup, so let’s go right back to him.

Especially in Week 13 against the Bengals, who just got shredded by the Steelers’ tight ends. More than 44.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks for Engram in Week 13. Cincy is allowing the second-most receiving yards and second-most receptions to tight ends this season.

Bet the over on his 4.5 receptions at plus money. He’s hit the over on 5-plus catches in 8 of his 11 games played this season. He has zero games with fewer than four catches. The most recent games came against tough tight end matchups. That is not the case in Week 13.

Travis Etienne carried the bulk of the rushing load with 56 yards on 20 carries, although he didn’t find the end zone. The matchup versus the Bengals can cure everything for Etienne and his recent scoreless streak of three games. News flash. Trevor Lawrence won’t score rushing TDs every single week. Love him in this game to go OVER his rushing yardage prop. Najee Harris went for 99 rushing yards against this defense last week. Devin Singletary went for 150 yards a few weeks before. I rest my case.

But just be aware that Etienne is on the injury report, listed as day-to-day with a chest injury.

Joe Mixon will also likely struggle to run the ball in this game. They rank 1st in run defense DVOA but they rank 5th in passing yards allowed per game (255). The Jags are allowing the fewest rushing yards allowed per game to RBs. And the Bengals are not feeding Mixon in the wake of Joe Burrow’s injury. Just 10 touches a week ago. 8 carries. Woof.

The Bengals just want to throw the ball – +11% pass rate over expectation in Jake Browning’s first start last week.

Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured) and Will Levis (who couldn’t complete a deep pass to save his life) in Week 11. The Jaguars’ defense ranks third in pass rate faced on defense.

Fully buy into Browning soaring over his passing yardage props even in a losing effort.

The Jaguars are also allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to opposing perimeter WRs. Buy low on Ja’Marr Chase to have a solid statistical output.

Seems like a potential spot for a sneaky over at suppressed number. But it’s another prime-time game. And both teams boast top-12 red-zone defenses. When in doubt go toward the under or just bet the Jaguars offensive team total at 23.5 points.

But as I have alluded the Bengals’ defense is in a bad spot. And that’s going unnoticed because 3 of their last 6 games have hit the over. Their last four of five games have all surpassed 41.5 points.

The Bengals have allowed the most explosive plays on defense (highest average depth of target faced) this season including 50-plus receiving yards to 10 different opposing WRs over the last six games.

My Picks

  • Jaguars -9.5
  • Jaguars over 23.5 points
  • Under 39.5

My Props

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