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NFL Betting Primer: Top Picks & Player Prop Bets for Every Game (Week 14)

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Gear up for a thrilling Week 14 in the NFL, brought to you with the expertise of BettingPros! I’m your host, Andrew Erickson, ready to guide you through another week of NFL betting excitement. This week, we’re diving deep into each matchup of Week 14, equipped with insightful analysis and top-notch betting advice. We’re covering everything from game spreads to totals, and let’s not forget the enticing player props that could be your key to a successful single-game parlay.

A note for the early bettors: player props may be limited at the beginning of the week on platforms like Underdog, PrizePicks and Sleeper. But don’t worry, as the week progresses, traditional sportsbooks will unveil a comprehensive range of player props. I’ll be scouting for the most valuable props, updating our picks as we get closer to Sunday. So, make sure to revisit before the games kick off to get the latest and greatest in player prop betting. Also, keep an eye out for my props-focused article every Saturday, where I’ll break down the best bets for the weekend.

Don’t miss my new weekly video on FantasyPros, where I spotlight the week’s most promising early lines on Prizepicks. Stay tuned for all the betting excitement of NFL Week 14!

Now, let's take a quick flashback to Week 13's showdowns.

Think back to nine weeks ago, when we were just nudging past the .500 mark midway through the season.

Below, you'll find the official tally of our recommended picks from Week 13 - not including Thursday night.

But get ready-Week 14 is set to be a rollercoaster of NFL betting adventure! 🏈?'?🎉

Week 13

  • Spread: 3-2
  • Totals: 6-3
  • Player Props: 28-19

Overall: 37-24 (61%)

2023 season

  • Spread: 72-78 (48%)
  • Totals: 98-70 (58%)
  • Player Props: 207-187 (53%)
  • ML: 6-4

Overall: 378-259 (51%)

As featured over the last month, I will feature my top bets listed at the top between underdogs, favorites and O/Us. Consider it a quick-hitting guide to access my top plays. Note that my favorite player props get released in a separate article released every Saturday.

Top Favorites:

  • Falcons -2
  • Browns -2.5
  • Cowboys -3.5
  • Texans -3.5
  • Chiefs -1.5
  • Ravens -7.5
  • 49ers -13.5

Top Underdogs:

  • Panthers +6
  • Colts +2.5
  • Bears +3
  • Raiders +3

Top Totals:

  • IND/CIN over 44
  • DET/CHI under 43 
  • CAR/NO under 39
  • DAL/PHI over 51.5
  • ATL/TB under 41
  • HOU/NYJ under 33 
  • LV/MIN under 40.5
  • KC/BUF under 48.5

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

NFL Betting Primer: Week 14

Atlanta Falcons (-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Desmond Ridder has lost one home game in his professional and college career. The Falcons are one of the best teams to back playing at home this season, boasting a 4-2 record overall.

They play better in Atlanta. That's been evident all year, with the Dirty Birds 4-1 (under Ridder) averaging 23 points per game in Atlanta versus their 2-4 record on the road, where they have averaged 15 points per game.

I also like backing the positive regression for the Falcons in one-score games. Last year, the Falcons lost 8 of their 10 one-possession games.

This year? They started at 3-1 in one-possession games. They dropped three games in a row by scores of 5, 3 and 2, bringing their one-possession game record to 3-4 entering Week 12.

Their road victory last week came in a 5-point game versus the Jets bringing their one-possession game record to 4-4. There's still positive regression to have in one-score games...

They also broke their 6-game streak of failing to cover as favorites last week.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have covered the spread in four of their last 6 games (failed in the last two weeks). They have covered four of their last six road games, falling short of covering in their last two road games.

And TB has also played under super thin margins. (-1.0 average scoring margin). 18th. The Falcons' average scoring margin is -1.2 (19th). The only difference is that the Buccaneers are 2-4 in one-score games, with their latest win coming by 3 points at home.

As for the specific matchups...

The Buccaneers' defensive strengths are in their ability to stop the run. 17th in run defense DVOA.

But their secondary is a mess, and Ridder can take advantage with all his playmakers healthy at his disposal between Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

And I don't think everything will be put on Ridder's shoulders. The last time these teams faced, Atlanta posted a -11% pass rate over expectation. They rushed for over 150 yards - the second-most the Buccaneers defense has allowed this season. They allowed 133 rushing yards last week to the Panthers while facing a -11% pass rate over expectation. Linebacker Lavonte David is also banged up.

And that Week 7 rushing total was without Bijan Robinson, who barely played when these teams last faced off because of a migraine.

Tampa Bay also ranks 6th-worst in 3rd down conversion rate on defense. TB's defense is all about bending but not breaking, and that will probably not work versus Atlanta and their run/pass balanced attack. Atlanta's defense is also superior in forcing punts, ranking second-best in the third-down conversion rate allowed.

Tampa Bay has the 5th-worst red zone offense this season.

Atlanta is 9-3 toward the under this season, and 2-4 toward the under at home this season.

Tampa Bay is also 8-4 toward the under this season. 7 of the Buccaneers' last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

These teams average 39.3 points per game. When these teams last faced off back in Week 7, it was a rare road victory for Ridder by a score of 16-13, despite the Falcons turning the ball over in the red zone three times. And they still won outright.

And the ultimate kicker to backing the under here is each of these defenses is stout in the red zone.

Atlanta has the No. 1 red-zone defense and Tampa Bay ranks 4th.

Back the Dirty Birds at home and take the under with two offenses that will struggle to convert yards into TDs.

As for props...

Drake London had just one catch for 8 yards on 5 targets (20% target share) last week. 97 air yards turned into a total air ball.

But his prop is just 44.5 receiving yards against a defense that is allowing the second-most receiving yards to WRs in 2023. London had 54 yards against them back in Week 7 and has gone over this number in his last four home games with Desmond Ridder at QB.

Kyle Pitts led with 51 yards on 4 catches from 8 targets (32% target share) in Week 13. Also tallied over 100 air yards while running a route on 90% of dropbacks. His usage has ticked back up at the expense of Jonnu Smith in recent weeks. I like the over on his 35.5 receiving yards prop. The Bucs are allowing the 5th-most yards per game to tight ends. Pitts went for 47 yards on just 3 catches the last time he faced Tampa Bay.

Tight end Cade Otton had his lone Week 13 target taken away due to an OPI penalty. He still played 98% of the snaps and ran a route on 30 of 32 Baker Mayfield dropbacks. Buy the dip versus the Falcons' defense which is horrible versus tight ends. $3,100 on DraftKings in Week 14. The cheapest tight end DFS money can buy.

Atlanta is allowing the 6th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season (59/game) and 4th-most catches (6.1).

My Picks

  • Falcons -2
  • Under 41

My Props

New Orleans Saints (-6) vs. Carolina Panthers

The Saints continue to be one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. The Derek Carr signing has not worked out at all, and the team finds itself looking up at the Falcons in the NFC South standings.

The Saints have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 7 home games. The Saints have also failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games as favorites. Woof.

No NFC teams are worse ATS than the Saints (2-9-1): The Panthers are better ATS (25%) despite boasting the worst record overall in the NFL.

With offensive coordinator Thomas Brown calling the plays in Carolina, the Panthers are a surprising 3-1 ATS. The Panthers have lost each of their last 7 road games, but covered the spread last week in the wake of the Frank Reich firing.

Still, the Panthers defense can't stop the run. But they are competent against the pass. 10 of 11 QBs have finished UNDER their passing yardage props when facing the Panthers this season.

Carr is in the concussion protocol for the second time this season, putting his status in question for Sunday. I'd guess he doesn't play. And that means Jameis Winston could draw the start.

Winston was 0-3 vs the spread as the starter in 2022. 3-3 versus the spread during his six full starts in 2021. 5-4 straight up. He's also a vastly superior red-zone passer than Carr as I noted in the Week 4 BettingPros Primer, when it looked like Winston would draw a start. This has been an area issue for New Orleans.

The Saints continue to struggle immensely in the red zone (26th). Carolina has the 30th-ranked red-zone defense, that ranks 32nd on the road this season.

Ultimately with a run-heavy game script, more Taysom Hill/Winston in the red zone, and less Derek Carr, I think we see the Saints get a home victory here, but it's not enough to cover the spread. They pushed when these teams met back in Week 2 when the Saints won by 3 points as road favorites.

If Carr ends up playing, I might even like the Panthers more as a straight-up road underdog especially with the line likely moving in the Saints’ direction.

And as I have already outlined, this team is the king of failing to live up to expectations. Winston starting is a wild card that could also potentially favor Carolina, so I'll back them with the points as they have consistently exceeded expectations with Thomas Brown as the OC. The offense scored its most points and posted the most offensive yards since Week 6 last week.

Bryce Young also tends to perform better versus man coverage per PlayerProfiler's data tracking - which the Saints run at a top-5 rate.

As for the total…

The average total of these two teams was 42 points. When these teams played earlier this season, they combined for 37 points. Also a combined 8-16 toward the under.

The Panthers are 5-1 toward the under in their last 6 games. The Saints are 3-2 toward the under at home.

I'm taking the under at 39. Run heavy game scripts from both teams don't project for a high-scoring environment.

And it’s the run-heavy nature of this game that has me HAMMERING the over on Chuba Hubbard’s 12.5 rushing attempts. Gone over in the last two games. Gone over in 3 of the 4 games called by Thomas Brown as the team’s offensive coordinator. Again, Hubbard saw 25 carries last week and has averaged 13.75 carries in the games called by Brown.

Also, the Saints have been bad versus the run as of late. Per the FantasyPros Week 14 Primer, since Week 8, New Orleans has allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the second-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the highest yards per carry-to-zone runs (Hubbard 58% zone).

Juwan Johnson was a total bust last week. Goose-egged on 3 targets. Zero in the second half. Dead last in receiving EPA in Week 13. He ran a route on 61% of dropbacks and played 57% of the snaps, a decline from last week. Losing Rashid Shaheed wasn't enough to boost Johnson's involvement in the offense. Week 14 will be no different.

The Panthers’ defense has also been elite versus tight ends, allowing the 2nd fewest catches allowed to tight ends this season. Johnson has gone over 2.5 catches just thrice in 8 games played this season. He was held to two catches for 13 yards when he last faced the Panthers earlier this season.

My Picks

  • Panthers +6
  • Under 39

My Props

New York Jets vs. Houston Texans (-3.5)

NFL Teams are 2-10 toward the under at MetLife Stadium this season. 31 points scored on average. I've mentioned this several times this season, but East Rutherford, NJ is truly the anti-Coors Field of the NFL.

The Jets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games. They lost at home against the Falcons offense by Desmond Ridder, who can't do anything on the road.

Because the Jets are just that bad with their current QB situation. The team just released Tim Boyle. Trevor Siemian replaced Boyle last week.

He completed 5 of 13 passes for 66 yards while taking 3 sacks. Not 1, not 2, but 3 fumbles.

Hasn't started since Week 12 of last season. The team lost by 21 points in his lone start. During his 5-game stint starting with the Saints in 2021, he was equally as horrible. After winning off the bench and filling in for an injured Winston, he lost his next four starts. 1-3 ATS by a sizeable margin.

He's not good and probably should be more than 5.5-point dogs at home.

I guess Robert Saleh acknowledged this and has named Zach Wilson the starter after he was benched. The saga continues. As does the line movement, jumping from 5.5 to 3.5 after the QB change. Wait what?

New York's only hope of winning this game (and any game) comes down to their defense. But Houston has an offensive philosophy to take advantage of what the defense will give them. We've seen Houston dial-up strong rushing attacks to expose the opposing defense. The Jets are vulnerable versus the run (No.1 run rate faced) like other teams Houston has faced: Denver, Arizona, Cincinnati and Carolina.

Houston’s pass rate over expectation in those games: 0%, -2%, -5% -10%. I expect them to dial up an aggressive rushing attack - hence my lean toward the under on C.J. Stroud's passing yardage props.

Houston is also 4-0 straight up when they rush for more than 110 yards. 3-1 ATS.

The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as favorites (1-4 ATS as a favorite this season) and just 3-2 straight up including losses at both Atlanta and Carolina, when they were small road favorites. They finally covered last week as a favorite versus Denver, and I think they roll that momentum into New York.

Overall, Houston is 6-4 versus the spread over their last 10 games. Their last 5 wins have been by 7 or fewer points. When they win it's by close margins. But they are in a tier above the Jets.

Besides as home underdogs, the Jets are 3-4 ATS.

Give me Houston at -3.5. I was on the Texans at -5.5. As for the game total, leaning under. These teams averaged 39.5 points this season. 6 of the Jets' last 7 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

The Texans have gone under in 7 of their last 10 games, which featured them playing offenses that are averaging fewer than 20 points per game. When faced with high-scoring offenses, the games have been shooting out. Against bad offenses - like Denver last week and New York this week- the games FLY under.

There’s also a chance for poor weather conditions in this contest. It’s going to rain and winds will be up to 19 mph.

Onto the props...

Nico Collins had a standout game in Week 13, amassing 191 yards and a touchdown on 9 receptions from 12 targets (46% target share). 4-122 on 6 targets in the first half. Also commanded 3 red-zone targets. Nearly 150 air yards. 2nd among all WRs in weighted opportunity.

Still, he and Stroud will be tasked with a difficult matchup in Week 14 against the Jets air-tight defense. The Jets are allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. Only one QB they have faced this season has gone over 256 yards - which was Stroud's passing yards projection across books this week when the lines first opened. It’s been heavily bet down to 217 passing yards across many sportsbooks based on the difficult matchup.

They have also allowed the fewest receiving yards per game to WRs, ranking 3rd in fewest fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs.

Stroud was mortal against the Broncos' defense at home this past, throwing for just 274 yards. His yardage numbers have dropped in 5 straight games. I think the trend continues with the tough matchup on deck where the focus will be more on the ground game. And if he goes UNDER his projected passing yardage, chances are he will bring his WR1 with him. Collins on the road this season has been held to 40 or fewer receiving yards in 3 of 4 road games.

Note that both props have been bet down slightly since they opened. That's where the "sharps" are pushing the number. Further fuel toward backing the game total going UNDER.

However, there is still some value in the under of Collins’s receiving yards. The prop is listed between 69.5 and 72.5 yards. I

My Picks

  • Texans -3.5
  • Under 33 

My Props

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)

The Colts have won each of their last four games. 5-1 on the road. And they are 100% ATS as favorites. 8-4 overall ATS.

I was all over the Colts before the Bengals played on Monday night, and the folks poured in money on Cincy's side to move the line from 2.5 to 1 in most spots. Now you can even find the Colts +1 as the lines have flipped in favor of the Bengals on certain sportsbooks.

Take the discount on the Colts. Their offense is set up to smash this Bengals defense...that ranks dead last in explosive plays allowed per game.

The Colts have been one of the few "over" machines this season, boasting an impressive 8-4 record toward the over. They pushed the "under king" Titans to an over last week.

Simply put, you have an "over" machine Colts against a Bengals defense that leads the league in explosive plays allowed on defense. Gambling doesn't have to be hard.

The Bengals defense ranks 6th-worst in points per game (27) and 30th in yards allowed per game (400) over the last three weeks. And what's going unnoticed is that 4 of their last 7 games have hit the over. Their last five of six games have all surpassed 41.5 points.

Take the Colts with the superior roster and team. The Bengals are 2-3 as underdogs this season.

But they play I love the most easily on the over at 44 points. Child, please. Browning didn't show me enough to back him to win another victory, but the offensive production he displayed - 87% completion rate for 354 yards and 1 TD - support the over on this game as the best approach.

The Colts’ run defense has been gashed since they lost Grover Stewart to a 6-game suspension. Guess who's back this week? Grover Stewart. Take the under on Joe Mixon's rushing yardage.

My Picks

  • Colts +2.5
  • Over 44

My Props

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams

Baltimore has covered the spread in the last seven of the last 9 games against a team with a winning record. As I have pointed out in previous editions of the BettingPros Primer, the Ravens are a team that plays to the level of their competition. Against good/winning teams, they bring out their best.

The 6-6 Rams have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs. So consider me suspect that they can go on the road to a hostile environment (traveling west coast to east coast) facing a team off a bye week.

The Baltimore defense is allowing the league's lowest yards per attempt.

The Ravens offense ranks 7th best in terms of third-down conversion rate, 3rd in red-zone conversion rate and 5th in yards per pass attempt.

The Rams have gone just 5-5-2 ATS this season. Their 5 covers? Seattle twice, Arizona twice and against Joe Flacco last week. Still allowed over 300 yards of offense to a QB fresh off the couch.

Against offenses not named the Browns, Cardinals, Seahawks or injury-plagued Bengals, the Rams have allowed no less than 20 points on defense this season.

Only thrice (Both vs Seattle and Arizona) have they allowed fewer than 300 yards of offense.

If it's not an NFC West Bird Team or Joe Flacco they are facing, the Rams have been tough to back in the betting streets. Everybody else they have struggled to beat and compete with. And they don't perform well after wins. Just so happens that their current 3-game win streak drew favorable matchups.

This is not a favorable matchup. Take Baltimore to win big at home.

Also, lean toward the under, but I'll admit the number at 40.5 is already pretty low.

The Ravens are also 7-5 toward the under. 11 of 14 last Ravens' games have gone UNDER the projected total.

But it's been mostly against bad QBs. Outside the dominant performance versus Jared Goff/Geno Smith at home, the Ravens have faced two rookie QBs making their first starts, an injured Joe Burrow, another backup QB in Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill/Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs. But they recently drew an under against Justin Herbert and it's hard not to think that Matthew Stafford may fall victim to what happened when Baltimore took on Goff/Smith at home.

Simply put, when they don't fear an opposing QB, the Ravens tend to go under the game total.

Especially with Mark Andrews missing as an integral part of the Ravens passing attack.

These teams have averaged 43 points this season.

The Rams are 4-3 toward the under their last 7 games. Even with Cooper Kupp healthy, they were hitting more unders than overs.

Four of the Rams’ last five games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total points line.

This just screams like a massive letdown spot for Los Angeles. And we know a dome team playing in bad weather – the forecast calls for definite rain and winds up to 20 mph – will heavily favor the home team Ravens.

For props: Leaning toward the under on Matthew Stafford's 219.5 passing yards prop on Prizepicks (although the number continues to drop). He was on a 6-game streak of passing yards unders until last week at home when Puka Nacua ripped off a massive catch-and-run. Stafford will face a Ravens secondary that has allowed just 203 passing yards per game to opposing QBs this season. Only one QB they have faced since Week 7 has gone over this number.

Note that Stafford's line opened at FanDuel at a very different stark number at just 205.5 passing yards. Just shows the under on the passing game as the move.

The same can be said for Lamar Jackson. His Prizepicks line opened at 224.5 yards. It's now at 202.5 passing yards. Just more reasons to check out my Fantasy Forecast, where I share all the early Prizepicks lines I am targeting for the week ahead.

It's slightly inflated considering he has gone over it just once in his last five games. Projections in the Prizepicks Draft Prop Cheat Sheet have him swiftly under this mark at 210 yards.

Can't also overlook the loss of Andrews and how that negatively impacts Jackson's passing yards projections. The Rams defense is allowing just 220 passing yards per game.

When it comes to these two QBs, shop for the best lines. Just know that value has been sapped with weather concerns at the forefront for sharp bettors.

But bad weather also means we could see more carries for Kyren Williams. The line is set at 15.5 – a number Williams has skyrocketed past in his last two starts since he returned from IR.

My Picks

  • Ravens -7.5
  • Under 39.5

My Props

 Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions (-3)

The Lions have covered the spread in each of their last four games as road favorites. However, 2 were dome games, one was in sunny Tampa Bay and the other was GB in September. Chicago in December is a different story, especially for an indoor cat like Jared Goff.

When these lines first dropped, I couldn't pull the trigger on the Detroit Lions. Goff outdoors in December is not a stance I want to take on. Especially with weather projecting for both wind and rain in the forecast. Gross.

Money has come closer on the Bears moving the line to 3.5/3 points after opening as 4.5 home dogs points.

When Chicago has established an effective ground game - as they did versus Minnesota, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Carolina and Detroit but not vs. the LA Chargers - their offense has been effective, and they have played games tight. 5-2 ATS in recent weeks.

Considering they already established a strong run game against the Lions before and against the Vikings to some extent, I think they can do it again, setting them up nicely at home.

Never like to bet against my Lions, but they have flashed some imperfections over the last few weeks. 3-3 ATS, with the two latest covers by extremely slim margins.

And each of the Lions’ last four games has gone OVER the total points line. Might be in for some regression to the mean as they play outdoors for the first time since October when they got destroyed by the Ravens...

Before the last Bears' game, Justin Fields had been a perfect 6-0 toward the over this season.

The new trend is beginning to form, as the Bears’ defense rounds itself out after a tough start to the season.

The Bears have one of the league's best run defenses allowing just 64 yards per game to opposing backs at a top-5 mark: 3.4 yards per carry. David Montgomery rushed for 76 yards and Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 36 yards the last time these teams faced off. The Bears won't completely neutralize the ground game - that Detroit will no doubt want to establish to "protect" their QB outdoors on the road.

But what has improved dramatically is the Bears pass defense. Last three home games they have limited their opponents to under 240 passing yards.

Justin Fields is 2-5 ATS record this season, including a cover against the same Lions in a shootout a few weeks ago. The Bears should have won the game outright.

I can't bring myself to take Detroit on the road. The Bears have improved enough to get the FG plus hook from me. But in all honesty, just prefer the under, as Fields' chaotic play style can make a cover go from hot to not in a nano-second.

For props, I love the under on Jared Goff's passing yards. 7 of 10 QBs facing the Bears have gone UNDER their yardage totals, including 5 of the last 6.

And that includes Goff, who was limited to just 236 passing yards the last time these teams played.

But I love the OVER on Jahmyr Gibbs' receiving props.

Jahmyr Gibbs gained 60 rushing yards on 8 carries while backfield mate David Montgomery added 56 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 18 carries last week. Gibbs ran the ball down to the goal line on a big play and then Monty punched the score in. Montgomery out-carried Gibbs - 11 versus 6 - in the first half. He also earned the majority of red zone work (4 vs 3) while the duo split routes run 50/50. Montgomery played 62% of the snaps and Gibbs played 45% of the snaps.

Gibbs only saw 2 targets in the game. Montgomery also saw 2 targets. OUTLIER in a positive game script.

We could see more of a Gibbs-driven game against the Bears based on how bad they have been against running backs in the passing game this season. Most receiving yards allowed to RB this season. Gibbs also went for 6 catches for 59 yards the last time he faced the Bears. Potential bad weather also supports more short dump-offs to Gibbs.

On the Bears’ side, the Roschon Johnson rushing prop is simply just too low. 14.5 yards? He’s gone over this number in 8 of his 10 games played this season. And before the bye week, Johnson dominated the touches and snaps over Herbert with D'Onta Foreman inactive. Johnson played 74% of the snaps to Herbert's 21% snap share as he ran 3x of the routes versus the veteran. Johnson out-touched Herbert 15 to 8 with 10 carries and 5 catches. Herbert had just 6 carries all night. After having 3 in the first half the team turned to a heavy dosage of Johnson in the second half, feeding him 8 carries.

Even with Foreman back this week, I think that will more impact Herbert’s role. not RJ. Take the over on the extremely low rushing number for a rookie who should see a solid workload out of the bye week. Averaged 5 yards per carry for 30 yards the last time he played the Lions.

My Picks

  • Under 43
  • Bears +3 

My Props

 Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Browns are 5-1 toward the under at home. 29 points per game in total. And as I pointed out last week, they have stark road/home splits on defense. Elite at home, dreadful on the road.

All 4 of their legitimate losses have been on the road, while their defense has allowed 24-plus points in each away contest.

Each of the Browns' last six road games has gone OVER the total points line. But eight of the Browns’ last nine home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

The Browns have covered the spread in five of their last six home games. They have also won seven of their last 8 games following a loss. They are the flip-floppers, flopping after wins and coming out on top after losses. They also play close games.

Aside from the blowout loss to the Ravens/Broncos/Rams/ this season, they haven't lost any game by more than 4 points (all road losses).

They have won 100% of their games decided by 3 points or less (likely not sustainable). All their wins have been blowouts (21, 24, 27 margins of victory) or super close games decided by an FG or less.

At home this season, Cleveland is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 ATS.

The Browns know how to navigate the backup QB carousel. They are the driver of the backup QB2 bus as they just started their fourth QB of the season. The Jaguars are just getting on the ride for the first time with Trevor Lawrence potentially out with a high ankle sprain. And there’s a chance we get some bad weather in this game – with the forecast calling for 17 mph winds and rain. Ankle plus wet conditions make me lean strongly toward Lawrence not playing.

And considering the Jags were so good ATS with Lawrence at QB. I'd bet the market doesn't readjust expectations ENOUGH to warrant his loss (along with the loss of wide receiver Christian Kirk). C.J. Beathard is expected to start. Hasn't started since 2020. 2-0 ATS in the last 2 starts (1-1 straight up). Before that, he was 1-9 as a starter. Woof.

Give me the Brownies as 2.5 point favorites at home.

As for props – not listed at the time of this writing – here’s what to look out for. Overs on Joe Flacco’s passing yards and Elijah Moore’s receiving yards (assuming the weather checks out).

Every QB the Jaguars have faced this season has gone OVER their projected passing yards total except for Kenny Pickett (injured) and Will Levis (who couldn't complete a deep pass to save his life) in Week 11. The Jaguars' defense ranks third in pass rate faced on defense. The Jaguars are also allowing the 4th-most fantasy points per game to opposing perimeter WRs (7th-most overall).

The Browns are 7-5 toward the over this season, while the Jaguars are 6-6. If the total was a bit higher, I'd hammer the under. But the value is gone at 30.5. But I understand the line, given the two quarterback situations and the Browns suffocating defense in Ohio.

Elijah Moore should operate as the Browns’ WR1 with Amari Cooper potentially out due to a concussion.  Moore was the top receiver last week with Flacco at the helm, targeted 12 times (29% target share) and making 4 receptions for 83 yards. His longest reception was an impressive 42 yards. He was by far Flacco's favorite target. 255 air yards. Flacco was AIRING it out to Moore. 50% air yards share. Flacco came off the couch FIRING. In Week 13, he tossed for 543 air yards...

And the Jaguars just got destroyed through the air by Jake Browning. Their secondary is a mess.

My Picks

  • Browns -2.5

My Props

  • TBD

San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks 

The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in 9 of their 12 games played this season. During their 3-game skid, they only scored 17 points in each contest while dealing with injuries. But when healthy, it's clear they are the No. 1 team in the NFL.

And when they play at home, they have destroyed teams. They have 4 home games by 18, 19, 32, and 13 points. Over 20 average of victory. 2-0-1 covering double-digit home spreads this season. And since the bye week, the 49ers have won all their games by 13-plus points.

Since Week 2, Seattle has been 5-5-1 ATS. The favorites have won 8 of the last 9 Seahawks games. When Seattle is a dog, good things don't happen. Seattle is 1-5 as an underdog.

1-3 ATS on the road in their last four road games and 2-5 ATS in their last six games played (1-3 over the last four games).

The 49ers have covered the spread in 11 of their last 12 games against NFC West opponents. Last 4 matchups versus Seattle, SF has outscored their division rivals 120-56.

30-14 game point difference on average. Last four games against the 49ers, Geno Smith has averaged fewer than 11 fantasy points per game.

When the 49ers play a familiar opponent Kyle Shanahan and company usually come out on top and exceed expectations.

For the total, I lean toward the over. The 49ers are 3-1-1 toward the over at home.

I jumped on the total when it opened at 45, and it has soared up to 46.5/47 across most sportsbooks.

We know the 49ers have the firepower to drive games into scoring. 7-5 toward the over including two back-to-back. Seattle has also gone back-to-back in overs.

This same matchup on Thanksgiving went over at 44 points the last time these teams met. The line has adjusted after Seattle's big offensive showing against Dallas.

It's the recency bias regarding Seattle's offense that has me hesitant to back their offense on the road. Four of the Seahawks’ last five road games have gone UNDER the total points line. They surprised everyone by what they did in Dallas. I'm betting they won't do it again.

Just bet the 49ers and their player OVERs.

Brandon Aiyuk had just 46 yards and 1 touchdown on 5 receptions from 7 targets (28% target share, 32% air yards share).

The Big 3 49ers pass-catchers all ran a route on 30 of 31 Brock Purdy dropbacks.

I've been pounding the table for Aiyuk the last two weeks, and he's overdue for a big yardage game. Even though he finished below 60 receiving yards last week, I'd go right back to the over at 63.5 receiving yards on Prizepicks. But the best number is tied to Samuel. His receiving yards projection is set at 51.5 yards. He has gone over that number in three straight games and 7 of 9 healthy games played this season.

Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba led Seattle in targets with 11 (29% target share), converting them into 7 receptions for 62 yards. He also had a TD catch that was overturned. Saw considerable playing time with 46 snaps (67%). Also ran a route on 74% of the dropbacks.

The first-round rookie WR is starting to break out before our eyes. He is making plays left and right and seems like he is finally back from that preseason injury that stunted his production to open the year.

The 11 targets are an impressive number. But when you count plays nullified by penalties, Smith-Njigba saw a whopping 14 targets on Thursday night.

And JSN has now posted 40-plus receiving yards in 7 of his last 8 games since the bye week. With him coming off a large target game I love the over on his receiving yards line.

My Picks

  • 49ers -13.5

My Props

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3)

The Raiders are 5-1 toward the under this season at home. 37 points per game.

Six of the Raiders’ last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

The Vikings have covered the spread in six of their last seven games.

Josh Dobbs will start at QB for the Vikings. The last time we saw Dobbs, he imploded versus the Bears on MNF.

Dobbs followed a similar trajectory with the Cardinals. Started plucky 3-0 ATS with no expectations and then fell off. Last Monday night, we saw Dobbs regress to the lower end of his weekly range of outcomes.

In yet the MNF game was still decided by less than an FG. The Vikings' average scoring margin is +1.8 with all but one of their 12 games played this season decided by 8 points or less.

Minnesota's defense has been surging and has played a role in their playoff hunt.

Simply put, Dobbs and the Vikings find ways to win, cover and keep games within striking distance.  And they will get back WR Justin Jefferson, who will provide a major offensive boost for Dobbs under center.

We know this game will be close at least from the Vikings side, so at first, I was fine laying -3 on the road. The Vikings have won four of their last five road games.

However, some conflicting trends go away from the Vikings.

The home team has covered 6 of the last 8 Raiders' games. The Raiders are also 4-1 ATS over their last five games. And a close game can usually go either way into the fourth quarter. This likely will be a shy-away spot with Minnesota having to win by more than an FG to cover.

Still, the biggest mismatch is that the Raiders cannot stop the run. 26th in rushing yards allowed per game and 24th in run defense DVOA. The issue is that the Vikings are not an elite rushing team. Even so, I expect MIN to deploy their run game, which is great for grinding out wins. But not necessarily for creating high-scoring game environments.

I do prefer the under overall to picking a side in a game that I think will be close. Even though the value play is on the Raiders +3, considering Minnesota can't/won't blow them out on the road. Just not in their team's DNA to do so.

Again, the Raiders are 5-1 toward the under at home this season, averaging 37 points per game. Six of the Raiders’ last seven home games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Las Vegas' defense has been underrated. 23rd in DVOA. Only one QB they have faced has thrown for 300-plus yards.

The Vikings are 9-3 toward the under this season.

It's the tough rushing matchup against the Raiders that I LOVE targeting in Week 14. Minnesota has allowed just ONE running back to rush for 70-plus yards against them this season. And that happened back in Week 2...

Take the easy under on Josh Jacobs' rushing yardage prop set at 71.5 rushing yards. You can get an even better number on FanDuel at 76.5 rushing yards. STONE-COLD LOCK OF THE WEEK.

The Raiders will continue to run into the Vikings’ brick wall defensive front given the team's overreliance on rushing. Last four games, they boast a -9% pass rate over expectation. 27th in overall pass rate on early downs (46%).

The Raiders are averaging 19.5 points over Aidan O'Connell's 5 starts.

My Picks

  • Under 40.5
  • Raiders +3

My Props

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 games following a loss. They have consistently been a team that has bounced back after down games. Great teams don't snowball mistakes.

The Bills have not been that team at all this season. Buffalo has failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games.

They were a mess entering Week 11 - even though their offense has been a top unit across several advanced metrics - but they righted the ship against Zach Wilson-led Jets squad. But other than that, it's been disappointment after disappointment.

Road Buffalo has been much tougher to back. They are 1-5 straight up and ATS on the road/neutral sites this season despite being favorites in all but one contest. 3-2 toward the under on the road.

Ten of the Bills’ last 11 games as underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.

Again, most times in a shootout, I am learning that the value is always in the underdog. When both offenses are cooking, you throw the pre-game point spreads out the window. The final score wins, and it makes it tough for favorites to cover (and win straight up).

However, given the spread going from Bills +3 to Bills +1.5, It's essentially a pick ’em. I'll take Patrick Mahomes at home under those circumstances every day on Sunday.

The Bills offense - as great as it is - will have more issues against KC's defense on the road than Mahomes versus Buffalo's defense.

Six of the Chiefs' last 8 games have gone UNDER the total points line. Overall, they are 8-4 toward the under. The last game they played went over versus GB.

But at home, they are 4-1 toward the under.

This is due in part to facing high closing game totals, their problems on offense and their defense stifling opposing offenses. They rank 9th overall in DVOA and 5th in pass defense DVOA. 28th in rush defense DVOA.

These teams have averaged 43.5 total points. Given the bloated number of 48.5 given the Allen-Mahomes name cache matchup, I think the value is on the under in this contest. 8/11 QBs that have faced the Chiefs have gone UNDER their projected passing yards total this season.

My Picks

  • Chiefs -1.5
  • Under 48.5

My Props

  • N/A

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) vs. Denver Broncos

The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games.

What's lost in the Broncos' mid-season surge was how often they played at home-played 4 home games since Week 7. 4-0 straight up. But is the Chargers' SoFi Stadium truly an "away" game? I digress.

The Broncos started as the team to "fade" this season. But after a horrible start, they have battled their way to a 5-6-1 record versus the spread. 6-6 straight up. Before their bye week, the only team Denver had looked impressive against thus far has been the Kansas City Chiefs, limiting their offense twice over three weeks. But it's become a new routine for their defense to present major problems for offenses they face. Last week they didn't cover on the road, but they made C.J. Stroud look mortal.

As a result of their defensive efforts, six of the Broncos' last 7 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

The Chargers? Nine of the Chargers’ last 10 games have gone UNDER the total points line.

Combined these teams are 2-8 toward the under in their last five games combined.

Take the under at 44 points.

The Broncos’ defensive improvements have come at the cost of the offense that has turned Russell Wilson into an ultra-conservative game manager. The team has totaled fewer than 200 passing yards in 7 of their last 8 games played.

So, although the Chargers pass defense is bad, this Broncos passing offense is anemic.

Ultimately, I just love the under here. The Broncos' improved defense is no fluke, especially with their ability to home in on limiting No. 1 weapons. If Keenan Allen is tied up, how will the Chargers move the ball? They won't. That's why LA is 9-3 toward the under this season.

Both teams also have above-average red-zone defenses.

The Chargers have shown competence against bad teams like the Jets/Bears/Patriots. The Broncos are a tier above that wavelength with the improvements they have made throughout the season. I'll take Denver catching 3 on the road if I want more action in this game.

LA has been much worse defending RBs in the passing game, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA against RBs. So back Javonte Williams to have a productive game as both a rusher/receiver.

Williams has caught at least 3 passes in 5 of his last 6 games. Every RB that has faced the Chargers has gone OVER their receptions prop.

Russell Wilson: Completed 15 out of 26 passes for 186 yards but struggled with accuracy, throwing 3 interceptions, and achieving a passer rating of 53.2. Wilson has thrown for 200-plus yards once in his last 8 games.

Can't help but lean toward the LESS/UNDER than on Russell Wilson's passing yards projection at 211.5 yards. He has one game of 200-plus passing in his last 8 games.

Gerald Everett contributed 44 yards on 5 targets (14% target share) last week. Team-high 4 targets in the first half.  He continues to see underwhelming usage with other tight ends, but at least he gets targeted on a semi-consistent basis. Great matchup for Everett this week against the Broncos' No. 32-ranked defense versus tight ends.

The last 9 tight ends they have faced have gone for at least 30 yards. Everett has gone OVER 40 yards in back-to-back games.

My Picks

  • Under 44
  • Broncos +2.5

My Props

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Cowboys have won each of their last 14 home games. They have been untouchable at home. 6-1 ATS at home with an average point differential of +25.2 this season.

Overall, Dallas is 8-4 ATS this season. Tied with the Eagles/Jaguars for the best ATS records in the NFL. But they are in the best position overall.

The home team has covered the spread in nine of the last 10 games between the Eagles and Cowboys.

The Eagles have the NFL's worst third-down defense. Philly's defense also ranks 29th in red-zone defense.

Dak Prescott and company will have a field day - like they did the last time these teams played – and I'm afraid the Eagles defense won't have any answers to stopping this offense. At least, fewer answers than Dallas' defense will versus the Eagles’ offense that has looked out of sorts at times this season.

Dallas has played 7 straight games with 300-plus yards on offense. 20-plus points in all games.

Therefore, I am backing Dallas. They have so much firepower that I can't envision Philly keeping up enough even after Seattle gave the Cowboys a scare last week.

Because this Eagles team is not what its record at 10-2 suggests. They have been the luckiest team this season, rallying from first-half deficits every week. Slow starts won't work versus the Cowboys, who have the No. 1-scoring offense in the first half (19.5 points per game). At home, they average 24.5 points in the first half alone...

Last week the Eagles got exposed against the 49ers. It was bound to happen based on how close to the margins the Eagles were winning by.

Case in point, the Eagles have also covered just 3 spreads when they have allowed 20 points on defense. 3-3-2 ATS when their defense allows 20 points. Been very lucky to snag pushes at the right times.

For the total...it's high for a reason. Don't care.

The Cowboys are 5-1 toward the over at home. 7 of the Cowboys' last 8 games have gone OVER the projected total, with their offense firing on all cylinders the last 6 of 7 games through the air.

These teams have averaged 51 points. And in each of the last six games the Eagles and Cowboys have gone OVER the total points line.

The current line is set at 51.5. I'll take the over.

All in all, Dallas will drive this game to go over the total regardless of whatever Philadelphia does offensively. They have scored 30 points in all their home games this season.

You can bet the Dallas offensive team total of 29.5 at plus money on DraftKings (+120). They will not keep their foot off the gas pedal in this matchup knowing that the Eagles can score at any point during the matchup.

And it's a high-projected game environment that has me all over the MORE THAN on Dak Prescott's passing yards. The line opened at 279.5 passing yards. It's way up now. Prescott has gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 games. The Eagles’ defense ranks second in pass play rate faced this season allowing the 3rd-most passing yards per game. 4 of the last 5 QBs the Eagles have faced have gone for 300-plus passing yards. Pitch and catch folks.

Pair Prescott with CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks. Lamb has gone over 89.5 yards in four of his last 6 games. He went for 191 against the Eagles a few weeks back, while Prescott tossed for 374 yards.

Cooks has 40-plus receiving yards in five of his last 6 games. Take the over on his receiving yards line set at 45.5 yards.

Only 3 QBs that have faced Dallas have thrown for more than 230 passing yards. Sam Howell did it last week and Geno Smith the week before.

Take the under on Jalen Hurts and his 255.5 passing yards prop. Projections have him close to 237 passing yards.

Dallas is also allowing the 3rd-fewest receiving yards and 4th-fewest receptions per game to WRs this season.

My Picks

  • Cowboys -3.5
  • Cowboys first half -2.5
  • Over 51.5
  • Dallas team total over 27.5 points

My Props

 New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (-6.5)

The Packers have won each of their last 16 games in December. They are 3-4 ATS in the last six games as underdogs and 4-2 overall at home. 5-5 overall as straight dogs.

But as favorites - like in this game - they are 1-1.

They've continued to hit on big plays over the last 3 weeks with wins against the Lions, Chargers, and Chiefs.

The Packers are now 6-6 straight up with wins over the Bears, Saints (Derek Carr played half a game) Rams (led by Brett Rypien), Chargers team coached by Brandon Staley, the Lions, and the Chiefs.

I'll admit I am impressed by some of their most recent wins. And they have taken care of business against vastly inferior teams.

The Giants are an inferior team. 37.5% ATS record is the third worst in the NFC. They have been outdone by every team they have faced other than the Commanders and Patriots.

Tommy "Cutlets" DeVito boasts the NFL's last-ranked pressure-to-sack percentage (47.5%). Nearly half the time he sees pressured, he takes a sack.

The Packers rank 11th in pressure rate this season.

The Giants have scored 20 points on offense twice this season (Week 2 and Week 11). The Packers are 6-2 when they allow fewer than 23 points on defense. 5-3 ATS.

Their offensive game plan in this game will be Saquon Barkley or Bust. The Packers own the 4th-highest run rate faced this season. This is the only way the Giants will be able to successfully move the ball. But a "high-octane rushing attack" doesn't always translate into high-end production in actual point totals.

I'll take the Packers hitting their stride on the road, against a man-heavy blitzing defense that has been one of the weaker defenses against play action this season.

Against man coverage, Jordan Love is tied for first with 9 TD passes. 7th in fantasy points versus man coverage. When facing the blitz...Love is PFF's 5th-highest-graded passer. 6 TDs and zero interceptions. Love has used play action at the 12th-highest rate this season.

Onto the total.

These teams have combined for an O/U record of 9-15. They are playing at MetLife Stadium, the anti-Coors Field of the NFL.

Each of the Giants’ last five home games has gone UNDER the total points line. 3-9 O/U record. 9 of the Giants' last 10 games have gone under the projected total.

Another under bet on Monday Night Football? You. Bet.

Only two QBs that have faced the Packers this season have gone for 270 yards plus. 7 of the last 9 QBs that have faced GB's defense have finished under their projected passing yards. With a run-heavy game plan on deck, expect little passing production from the Tommy Cutlets.

My Picks

  • Packers - 6.5
  • Under 37

My Props

Miami Dolphins (-13) vs. Tennessee Titans

If you have read any version of the BettingPros Primer this season, you'll be strongly aware of the home/road splits with the Tennessee Titans. Fade them on the road but back at that home (just last like the last 2 weeks).

The Titans are losers of 9 straight on the road. And they are MASSIVE road dogs versus the Dolphins, who routinely boat race bad teams (especially at home).

The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last nine games against teams that held a losing record.

Miami is 4-1 ATS and 5-0 straight up at home this season, winning by no less than two TDs in all but one contest. They have been a solid bet backing at home, even as heavy favorites. 8-1 overall as a favorite.

I believe - as does the market - Miami can mostly overwhelm bad teams and fail to beat good teams. We should see more of the same in Week 14 in a similar way to how Dolphins-Commanders played out. Especially with how bad the Titans' pass defense is.

26th in yards per attempt allowed (7.1). But I also expect the Dolphins to run the ball effectively as well. The Titans have faced the 3rd-highest run rate on the road this season and they will be without starting defensive lineman, DT Jeffery Simmon.

The Titans are a bad team, especially when they play away from Nashville. Just 12.3 points per game scored on the road.

Miami's defense has also played better than to start the season, allowing fewer than 285 yards per game over their last five games. 3-2 toward the O/U.

Derrick Henry has only played one game on the road this season where he was seen at 15 carries. It happened in Week 1. It was also the only game on the road where he has exceeded 45 rushing yards.

The Titans have a bad offensive line that doesn't travel well. Hence seven of the Titans’ last eight road games have gone UNDER the total points line.

And the Dolphins defense is going to present major issues for them. Miami is the No. 3 best DST vs fantasy RBs over the last 4 games. They are also allowing the second-lowest explosive run rate at 5.8%. Tied with the Vikings for allowing the fewest rushes over 10 yards (16).

Simply put, without explosive rushes from Henry, the Titans won't be able to keep pace. And Miami has also been great at limiting explosive pass plays, putting Tennessee's passing game in a really tough prime-time position.

Miami is 3-2 toward the over at home this season. Their two unders came against teams like the Raiders and Giants.

The total on this game is likely a shy-away spot for me, as I don't have much faith in the Titan's offensive side of the ball. Rather just bet the Dolphins' 29.5 team total than take in the full game total. You can also take the team total and tease the spread to 6.5 at -105 odds.

My Picks

  • Dolphins -13
  • Dolphins 29.5 team total

My Props

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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